Karena masih banyak makhluk bodoh yang menanyakan pertanyaan sejenis, kembali kami, Laksar Kaisar Xudu, mempersembahkan sesuatu yang benar-benar istimewa.Quote:
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RI will be more stable than India, Malaysia and Thailand in 2009
With concern setting in about the declining rupiah and share prices, there is good news yet: Indonesia next year will be much more stable than regional peers India, Malaysia and Thailand, a Hong Kong-based political risk consultancy said Monday.
"Indonesia is much more stable today than it was when the regional financial crisis hit in 1997-98. The coming election campaign is likely to see the present government return, with (President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono) winning the presidency and keeping Jusuf Kalla as his vice president," the Political & Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) said in a report, whose executive summary is available on PERC's website.
Following a massive crackdown on alleged terrorist group Jamaah Islamiyah in recent years, coupled with improving social conditions, Indonesia seems almost guaranteed of stability. But the threat of terrorism is still a factor, PERC warned.
"There is still a possibility of more terrorist incidents, but overall social conditions are more stable now than at any time in a decade," it said.
PERC assessed 16 countries in its Asian Risk Prospects -- 2009 on factors such as the risk of racial and communal tensions, struggle for power, the threat posed by social activism, and vulnerability to policy changes by other governments.
Indonesia, Southeast Asia's biggest economy, rated as the fourth least stable country in the region, with a score of six on a scale of 10, in which zero represents the best socio-political conditions and 10 the highest risk.
South Asian behemoth India topped the table with the highest political and social risk, scoring 6.87, mainly because of internal and external instability. PERC cited fears over Pakistan, a major player in the global war on terror.
"India faces some of the biggest risks in 2009 because of uncertainties surrounding the coming general election, rising communal violence and terrorism incidents.
"The biggest risk is that a deterioration in political and economic conditions in neighboring Pakistan could aggravate social unrest in India further and hurt national security," PERC
said.
Thailand is pegged to be the next least stable country in Southeast Asia next year, scoring 6.28, as the current political mayhem and the separatist violence looks set to run into 2009.
Surprisingly, Malaysia, which escaped much of the wrath of the 1997 financial crisis, will be the third least stable in the region, with the report noting the political wranglings were aggravating racial and religious tensions.
"The status quo is changing in ways that will see a stronger political opposition than in the past and UMNO (the ruling party) forced to share more power with non-Malay groups," the report
said.
But these three countries could be relatively immune to the global financial fallout.
"India, Thailand and Malaysia are not so much vulnerable to negative fallout from the global financial crisis as they are to factors that are mainly internal," Robert Broadfoot, PERC managing director, told Reuters on Tuesday.
"For these countries, the coming global economic storm is only going to make a bad situation worse," he said.
The tightly controlled city-state of Singapore was ranked the most stable country, boasting an extremely low political risk in 2009, though its economy is expected to take a big hit from the financial crisis as it heads toward recession.
This is expected to mirror the current situation in the United States, badly weakened economically and psychologically.
"It is a humbling experience that, coinciding with a change in government, is likely to see the U.S. become less aggressive in pushing its views on other countries," PERC said.
With a score of 5.33, China will have a tough year economically in 2009 but not a disastrous one.
PERC is a consulting firm specializing in strategic business information and analysis for companies doing business in East and Southeast Asia.
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http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2...land-2009.html
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Pump priming the domestic economy to survive the financial crisis
Cyrillus Harinowo, Jakarta
Chinese President Hu Jintao recently reaffirmed his country's
determination to promote the domestic economy while keeping the
external accounts balanced. This kind of strong statement is
greatly needed amid the uncertainty arising from the financial
crisis that is expected to lead to a global recession.
Asian countries will certainly be affected by the global
downturn. Exporting companies in the region are already feeling
the pinch from the imminent global recession. The only way for
the countries in the region to mitigate the impact is through
the promotion of the domestic economy.
Concerted efforts by Asian countries will create a region where
economic activities can be decoupled from the global downturn,
but at the same time will also lead into higher import demands
from the rest of the world. The strong reserves of the region,
which have been accumulated over many years, can now be
mobilized to increase the financing of the imports badly needed
to strengthen the domestic economy.
Indonesia has the advantage of being rich in natural resources.
A country with a population of 225 million people and with a
rising per-capita income can form a strong domestic economy. So
how strong is the Indonesian domestic economy?
In 2008, the country may reach a per-capita income of between
$2,300 and $2,400 depending in the GDP in the fourth quarter. Up
to September, the Indonesian economy seemed to be doing well.
Reports from various companies indicate that many of them
exceeded their production or revenue targets.
Bank Indonesia recently predicted that the third quarter GDP may
have grown by 6.3 percent, slightly higher than their first and
second quarter predictions. If this proves accurate, then in the
first three quarters of this year the Indonesian GDP produced a
growth rate of over 6.3 percent compared to the same period last
year. Therefore, a slightly less impressive growth rate in the
fourth quarter will probably still lead to over 6.0 percent
growth, year-on-year, during the whole of 2008. Despite the
recent problems this positive outcome is now widely predicted.
Indonesia is also experiencing growth in the size of the middle
class. Based on the distribution of income, 22.5 million people
-- almost the same as the whole population of Malaysia -- earned
an average of $7,000 in 2008 -- higher than the 2006 average
per-capita income of Malaysia. Another 22.5 million people
earned an average of $3,500, while 22.5 million people earn
around $2,300.
In total, 67.5 million people -- slightly more than the entire
population of Thailand -- earned an average income of $3,700,
slightly higher than Thailand's 2006 average per capita income.
While some people have been badly affected by the financial
crisis, such as by losing their accumulated wealth via the now
bankrupt Lehman Brothers or losing the value of their stocks,
their recurrent income will continue to rise if the economy
continues to post positive growth. Therefore, ensuring continued
growth in the economy is an urgent task for the government,
which can be facilitated by the promotion of the domestic
economy.
In 2009, the new Indonesian income tax law will release around
Rp 40 trillion for companies and individuals through tax reforms
and liberalization. This total estimated reduction in the tax
burden represents one form of fiscal stimulus that can be spent
on further expansion or on consumer spending.
In the meantime, the decision to accelerate project
implementation, for example for infrastructure projects, will
create broader activities that can stimulate employment. A
number of projects, such as the MRT in Jakarta, the East Flood
Drain (BKT) and the construction of toll roads in various
places, as well as other government development projects will
start in 2009.
It is hoped that fast implementation of such projects can be
done on the same lines as the rapid construction of the
Cengkareng Airport toll road that is currently being built at a
brisk pace.
The declining oil price in the recent weeks may also help the
implementation of fiscal stimulus.
This means a lower requirement for fuel subsidies as well as
helping to make available more fuel supplies for the government.
Funds saved from energy subsidies can be pooled to finance the
development of infrastructure projects such as highways as well
as production of non fossil fuel (or renewable) energy.
If the oil price continue to fall, then there is a one time
chance for the government to start considering the collection of
a carbon tax.
For example, currently the subsidized gasoline price was set at
Rp. 6.000. If the oil price continues to decline, the value of
"subsidized" gasoline could reach a level of Rp. 5,000. If the
price continues to be fixed at Rp. 6,000, the government could
start collecting revenue of Rp. 1,000 for each liter of
"subsidized" gasoline.
This temporary revenue could be set as a carbon tax. If the oil
price continued to decline even further, then for example, the
"subsidized" value could reach Rp. 4,000 per liter, then the
Government could decide to reduce the official price or leave it
as an additional revenue on top of the carbon tax.
On the other hand, if the value of the "subsidized" gasoline
increases to Rp. 6,000 (while the proposed carbon tax is set at
Rp. 1,000) then the Government starts subsidizing the gasoline
as planned, while at the same time the carbon tax continues to
be collected at Rp. 1,000 per liter.
Time is running out fast to make use of this "roller coaster"
oil price. Therefore the government has to stand ready to take
advantage of such conditions. With such an instrument, the
promotion of the domestic economy can be made more effective.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2...al-crisis.html
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Petai Diminati di Singapura, Malasia dan Hong
JAKARTA--MI: Krisis finansial global yang terjadi belakangan ini tidak mempengaruhi kinerja ekspor PTAlamanda Sejati Utama, eksportir petai di kawasan Banjaran, Kabupaten Bandung, Jawa Barat.
Singapura menjadi negara yang terbanyak memesan petai sebanyak 1,5 ton setiap minggu. Langkah ini di lakukan sebagai cara untuk mencari pasar atas produk yang jarang dilakukan negara lain.
Staf pemasaran PT Alamanda Sejati Utama Mulyadi Chandra mengatakan permintaan petai dari Singapura kepada perusahaannya cukup menggembirakan jika dibandingkan negara-negara lain. "Singapura yang paling banyak melakukan permintaan," katanya.
Selain Singapura, negara lain yang meminta petai adalah Malaysia, Hongkong, Brunei Darussalam, dan Thailand. "Untuk sementara baru negara-negara itu yang melakukan permintaan," katanya.
Tidak hanya mendapat permintaan petai dalam jumlah besar, PT Alamanda Sejati Utama juga kebanjiran permintaan paprika, selada air, jagung, nenas, mangga, jahe, dan bunga melati. "Setiap bulan kami menerima order sekitar Rp10 miliar dari negara-negara tersebut," ungkap Mulyadi.
Perusahaan yang mulai melakukan ekspor sejak tahun 1989 ini, awalnya mengekspor jahe. Namun dari tahun-tahun berikutnya permintaan dari negara-negara tersebut tidak terbatas pada jahe, tapi juga komoditi lainnya. "Mudah-mudahan tahun depan, kami bisa mengekspor ke Eropa," katanya.
Ia mengatakan, perusahaannya berkomitmen untuk menyediakan produk yang berkualitas tinggi, inovatif serta kompetitif dalam persaingan pemenuhan kebutuhan produk pertanian di pasar lokal maupun internasional. (Ant/OL-01)
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showth...525203&page=28
Seeing opportunity for renewable energy in financial crisis
On Tuesday, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono indicated he would consider a request from the House of Representatives to cut fuel prices as global oil prices continue to fall.
But while politicians discuss how and when to subsidize prices for jittery consumers, some in the energy sector are seeing an opportunity for a new commitment to renewable energy.
And as the oil market continues its volatile ride -- members of OPEC agreed last week to reduce supplies to the world market -- the time is right, they argue, to fund alternative energy projects.
"This is the time to invest," said Erwin Susanto Sadirsan, executive director of the Indonesian Renewable Energy Society (METI). "I think the prospect for Indonesia is very good."
In 2006, Yudhoyono issued a decree calling for 17 percent of the country's energy needs to come from renewable energy sources by 2025. The current rate is between 4 and 5 percent, according to METI.
"This is a very big target for 2025," Erwin said. "But we will try to achieve it."
The latest global financial crisis could offer an added incentive for consumers and businesses to look at alternative energy as a more reliable and sustainable energy source, Erwin said. But obstacles persist.
"For a new technology like this we need an incentive from the government, a tax incentive," Erwin said. "The problem is how to draw in foreign direct investment."
He cited geothermal energy as an example. Indonesia has the world's richest reserves of geothermal power, estimated at up to 27,000 megawatts (MW), or about 40 percent of the world's geothermal reserves.
But because of the initial cost of harvesting the energy, investors have been slow to tap the resource.
Some observers argue that renewable energy should also be seen in the broader context of poverty and how the latest financial crisis could put pressure on the most vulnerable members of society.
"This is really a global issue," said Herliyani Suharta, a renewable energy researcher for the past three decades.
Often people are forced to use non-renewable sources such as gasoline or wood to meet their daily energy needs, because of poverty, she said.
"You can't ask them to not do that if you don't give them an alternative," said Herliyani, who also runs a project in Aceh promoting the use of solar-powered stoves, and is currently researching harvesting wind energy in East Nusa Tenggara.
But some economists view the push for alternative energies as a tough sell in the current financial climate.
"Now that the oil price is down, the incentives to move to alternative energy sources diminishes," said Arianto Patunru, research director at the University of Indonesia's Institute of Economic and Social Research.
"You can't invest in a big new plant when you are short of capital. And that, I'm afraid, includes investment in renewable energy."
Arianto said OPEC's recent decision to cut its production by 1.5 million barrels per day effective Nov. 1 could generate more interest in renewable energy, but warned it was still too early to tell.
To date, global leaders have struggled to keep alternative energy at the forefront of a global response to the financial crisis.
On the eve of the European Commission's economic summit earlier this month, EC chief Jose Manuel Barroso called on leaders to maintain their commitment in tackling climate change.
In 2007, the EU pledged to draw 20 percent of its energy from renewable sources, and to make another 20 percent in energy savings.
"Climate change does not disappear because of the financial crisis," Barroso said at the time. "Tackling climate change is central to Europe's future prosperity and to preserve the quality of life on our planet."
In Indonesia, climate change may provide a good reason to look toward renewable energy. With financial woes affecting food prices throughout Southeast Asia, Indonesia may be especially sensitive to changes in the climate.
A 2007 study by the U.S.-based National Academy of Sciences predicted a higher probability of delays in the rainy season, by up to 30 days. Such a delay could have devastating effects on the country's food supply, the report said.
Endro Utomo Notodisuryo, former director general for electricity and energy development, took part in the Kyoto Protocol deliberations of 1992. He said that in the late 1970s, Indonesia was seen as a regional leader in renewable energy research, but added the country had some missed opportunities over the past few decades.
"We would have had more progress if we were doing things in a more coordinated way," Endro said.
The latest financial crisis could also prove to be a new chance to move beyond mistakes made in the past.
"The problem is the oil price determines the growth of renewable energy," said METl's Erwin. "But if people also consider environmental factors when choosing renewable energy, the current financial crisis can be seen as an opportunity."
http://old.thejakartapost.com/detail...30.B11&irec=10
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Perdagagan Indonesia Surplus 1,09 Miliar Dolar Pada September
Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Indonesia mencatat surplus perdagangan pada September 2008 sebesar 1,09 miliar dolar AS.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat nilai ekspor Indonesia pada September 2008 sebesar 12,3 miliar dolar AS atau mengalami penurunan sebesar 2,15 persen dibandingkan ekspor pada Agustus 2008.
Ekspor nonmigas mencapai 9,80 miliar dolar AS atau naik 2,45 persen dibanding pada bulan Agustus 2008. Dibandingkan dengan ekspor September 2007, terjadi kenaikan sebesar 31,72 persen.
Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Rusman Heriawan, di Jakarta, Senin, mengatakan, turunnya ekspor disebabkan penurunan yang tajam pada ekspor migas.
Impor Indonesia pada September 2008 mencapai 11,21 miliar dolar AS atau turun 5,53 persen dibandingkan Agustus 2008 yang terdiri dari impor migas dan nonmigas. (*)
http://www.antara.co.id/arc/2008/11/...ada-september/
http://kompas.com/read/xml/2008/11/0....rp.10.triliun
Ekspor CPO Melesat Akibat Penurunan Pajak
Jakarta - Ekspor minyak kelapa sawit mentah (CPO) kembali mencatat kenaikan. Penurunan pungutan ekspor CPO diyakini menjadi salah satu faktor yang mempengaruhi kenaikan ekspor CPO.
Hal tersebut disampaikan Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik Rusman Heriawan dalam jumpa pers di Gedung BPS, Jalan Dr Sutomo, Jakarta, Senin (3/11/2008).
"Ekspor terbesar di bulan September tetap CPO yang memainkan peranan. Jadi dalam 5 bulan terakhir, naik turunnya ekspor itu, karena CPO sebab kan terjadi fluktuasi harga CPO. Kemudian kebijakan penurunan pajak ekspor CPO juga berpengaruh terhadap kenaikan ekspor CPO pada bulan September," ujarnya.
Pada bulan September, pajak ekspor CPO diturunkan menjadi 10 persen, kemudian di bulan Oktober pajak ekspor ditetapkan sebesar 7,5 persen. Setelah itu di bulan November ini, pajak ekspor CPO ditetapkan sebesar 0 persen.
"Saya kira kalau CPO bisa diterapkan 0 persen bisa lebih kencang lagi ekspornya, jadi naik turunnya ekspor masih ditentukan oleh CPO sampai saat ini," ujarnya.
Pada bulan September, berdasarkan catatan BPS memang ekspor non migas khususnya untuk lemak dan minyak hewan nabati mengalami peningkatan terbesar US$ 303 juta.
Di sisi lain, penurunan harga minyak justru mengurangi ekspor produk minyak dan bahan bakar mineral. Penurunan terbesar terjadi pada ekspor bahan bakar mineral sebesar US$ 191,2 juta.
"Itu karena penurunan harga minyak dimana ekspor minyak mentah itu turun 14,5 persen menjadi US$ 1,011 miliar," ujarnya.
Eksopr hasil minyak juga turun 39,05 persen menjadi US$ 234,7 juta. Ekspor gas juga mengalami penurunan 13,23 persen menjadi US$ 1,187 miliar pada bulan September 2008.
"Hal ini dikarenakan harga minyak mentah Indonesia di pasar dunia turun dari US$ 115,56 per barel di Agustus menjadi US$ 99,06 per barel di September 2008.
Sektor Industri Dapat Rp 10 Triliun
JAKARTA, SENIN- Sektor industri, seperti sektor padat karya, elektronika, industri angkut, dan makanan, akan menjadi prioritas sasaran alokasi dana Rp 10 triliun dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2009.
"Itu untuk pengalokasian PPn dan biaya masuk yang akan kita tanggung," kata Deputi Menko Perekonomian Bidang Industri dan Perdagangan Eddy Putra Irawady di gedung Bappenas, Jakarta, Senin (3/11).
Alokasi dana tersebut dilakukan secara konvensional, yakni sektor industri langsung mengajukan ke Menteri Keuangan (Menkeu). Nantinya, Menkeu akan mengeluarkan Surat Keputusan (SK) yang menyatakan bahwa biaya masuknya sektor ini di tanggung negara seperti tahun lalu.
"Kalau dulu bisa langsung pake SK 35, sekarang diusulkan Menkeu menerbitkan SK nya dan komoditi mana yang dapat," ujarnya. Setelah SK keluar, proses berlanjut ke ke kantor pajak.
Menurut Eddy, pembagian alokasi dana yang digunakan untuk insentif masing-masing sektor riil itu relatif kecil. Rata-rata, satu sektor akan mendapat Rp 1,5 triliun untuk berbagai programnya, termasuk program pangan murah.
Untuk sektor energi, khususnya BBM, menurut Eddy, ada alokasi khusus dan dibahas secara terpisah. "Dibahas secara khusus karena mandatori obligasinya 10 persen," ujarnya.
Hal ini menandakan bahwa APBN 2009 bersifat kharismatik karena dalam APBN 2009 karena pemerintah diberikan keleluasaan untuk membuat penjaminan pemerintah dan insentif. "Kita memiliki ruang gerak untuk penjaminan ketika dalam keadaan darurat," tutur Eddy.
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/200...enurunan-pajak
Ekspor RI Tembus US$ 107 Miliar
Jakarta - Nilai ekspor Indonesia sepanjang Januari hingga September 2009 sudah menembus US$ 100 miliar, tepatnya US$ 107,65 miliar. Ekspor ke AS, yang kini sedang terkena krisis sejauh ini juga masih aman.
BPS mencatat, nilai ekspor kumulatif selama 9 bulan pertama 2008 itu berarti meningkat 29,69% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun 2007.
"Secara kumulatif sudah mencapai US$ 107,65 miliar, untuk tahun ini dalam 9 bulan saja sudah tembus US$ 100 miliar, tahun lalu 10 bulan baru US$ 100 miliar," urai Kepala BPS Rusman Heriawan dalam konferensi pers di kantor pusat BPS, Jalan DR Sutomo, Jakarta, Senin (3/11/2008).
Sementara khusus untuk nilai ekspor selama September tercatat US$ 12,23 miliar atau turun 2,15% dibandingkan ekspor Agustus. Namun jika dibandingkan ekspor September 2007 berarti meningkat 28,53%.
"Ekspor turun tajam karena ekspor migas, bukan non migas. Jadi ekspor non migas walau komoditas yang berbasis sumber daya alam turun harganya, tapi ekspornya tetap naik. Jadi ekspor ini turun karena harganya turun. Memang kita tahu, disatu pihak dengan harga minyak yang turun, beban produksi turun tapi ekspor kita juga turun nilainya," jelasnya.
BPS juga mencatat ekspor RI ke AS selama September mencapai US$ 1,227 miliar, meningkat dibandingkan bulan Agustus sebesar US$ 1,085 miliar. Sementara secara kumulatif, ekspor RI ke AS dari Januari sampai September tercatat sebesar US$ 9,743 miliar, meningkat dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun 2007yang sebesar US$ 8,379 miliar.
"Ekspor ke AS tetap terjadi kenaikan. Ini bisa jadi karena kontrak ekspor itu telah disepakati 2 atau 3 bulan sebelum puncak krisis terjadi," jelas Rusman.
"Tapi ekspor 2008 saya kira masih aman, karena kita tidak kena first round effect dari krisis global. Namun untuk 2009, target ekspor saya kira perlu direview karena dikhawatirkan ada second round effect dari krisis global yang terjadi," imbuhnya.
Neraca Perdagangan RI Surplus US$ 1,02 Miliar
Untuk nilai impor Indonesia selama September 2008 mencapai US$ 11,21 miliar atau menurun 5,53 persen dibanding Agustus 2008 yang terdiri dari impor migas sebesar US$ 2,52 miliar (22,49 persen) dan impor nonmigas sebesar US$ 8,69 miliar (77,51 persen).
Sedangkan selama Januari-September 2008 nilai impor Indonesia mencapai US$ 101,09 miliar dengan impor migas sebesar US$ 25,90 miliar (25,62 persen) dan impor nonmigas sebesar US$ 75,19 miliar (74,38 persen).
Dengan posisi tersebut, maka neraca perdagangan Indonesia untuk September mencatat surplus US$ 1,02 Miliar. Surplus ini lebih besar dari surplus perdagangan pada Agustus yang sebesar US$ 635 juta. (qom/ir)
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2008/11/03/145051/1030428/4/ekspor-ri-tembus-us$-107-miliar
Indonesiaku hebat ya
Quote:
Emerging-Market Stocks Extend Record Rally, Led by Indonesia
By Laura Cochrane
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks gained, extending last week's record rally, after India cut interest rates and central banks in China and South Korea sought to protect their economies from the worsening credit crisis.
Indonesia's Jakarta Composite index rose as much as 8.7 percent, heading for its biggest increase in more than nine years, on speculation the nation's central bank will follow the global trend toward lower interest rates. Thailand's SET Index increased 6.8 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 2.2 percent, adding to a record 20 percent surge last week.
India cut interest rates for the second time in two weeks on Nov. 1 and lowered the amount of money lenders must keep in government bonds, the first reduction in 11 years. China's central bank removed temporary controls over loans and South Korea announced a $10.8 billion economic stimulus plan.
India's Sensitive Index rose 4.7 percent and Korea's Kospi Index gained 1.5 percent. Korea's won increased 2.2 percent against the dollar and India's rupee climbed 1.4 percent.
The extra yield investors demand to own developing nations' bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries fell 9 basis points to 6.2 percentage points, the lowest since Oct. 15, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s EMBI+ Index. The so-called spread has fallen from a peak of 8.65 percentage points since Oct. 25.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Y5s&refer=news
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Silahkan dinikmati. Dan silahkan bertahan dengan kebodohan dan kedunguan serta kepandiran anda