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ehmm.
meurut saya kalau global warming lebih pas.
mengapa saya mengatakan demikian?
karena stob global warming telah mencangkup semuanya.
mulai dari perusakan lingkungan dan pembuatan gedung2 pencakar langit dan sebagainya.
kalo stop perusakan lingkungan menurut saya hanya menyangkut lingkungan2 sekitart.
contohnya penebangan hutan dan sebagainya.
Pendapat blh berbeda-beda yang penting intinya sama
Kalo gw milih istilah perusakan lingkungan soalnya lbh basic dan luas
Sebagai contoh kalo bangun-bangun gedung terus berarti merusak lingkungan dalam arti kesuburan tanah.Bangun pabrik merusak lingkungan dalam arti udara,Itu semua memberi dampak pada lingkungan yang tandus,kering yang membuat kita terasa lbh panas.
It just my opinion
No offense,no defense
Peace
ya saya setuju intinya sama yaitu:Quote:
Originally Posted by Bahamut_Fury
"STOP GLOBAL WARMING/STOP PERUSAKAN LINGKUNGAN!"
lol
maap yg ngomongin game sebelah mana
ga bsa baca ya tuh badut besi kwkwwkwkwkwwkwk
klo t'jadi zaman es k 2
brarti ithu artinya kiamat ? O.o
^
Kiamat u/ northern hemisphere
Kok gedung pencakar langit sehh? Itu gak ada hubungannya kali, paling penggunaan listriknya yang harus dikurangi.Quote:
Originally Posted by genesiz
Anyway, ada teori bahwa North Atlantic Current, yang bergantung pada garam akan berhenti karena desalinasi, panas yang dibawa dari khatulistiwa kesitu akan hilang, menyebabkan ice age di Northern Hempishere..
Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age
The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years.
Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000 years.
Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources also shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which are together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000 year period; the shape of the earth’s orbit, which changes over a period of 100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also known as the earth’s ‘wobble’, which gradually rotates the direction of the earth’s axis over a period of 26,000 years. According to the Milankovich theory of Ice Age causation, these three astronomical cycles, each of which effects the amount of solar radiation which reaches the earth, act together to produce the cycle of cold Ice Age maximums and warm interglacials.
Elements of the astronomical theory of Ice Age causation were first presented by the French mathematician Joseph Adhemar in 1842, it was developed further by the English prodigy Joseph Croll in 1875, and the theory was established in its present form by the Serbian mathematician Milutin Milankovich in the 1920s and 30s. In 1976 the prestigious journal “Science” published a landmark paper by John Imbrie, James Hays, and Nicholas Shackleton entitled “Variations in the Earth's orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages,” which described the correlation which the trio of scientist/authors had found between the climate data obtained from ocean sediment cores and the patterns of the astronomical Milankovich cycles. Since the late 1970s, the Milankovich theory has remained the predominant theory to account for Ice Age causation among climate scientists, and hence the Milankovich theory is always described in textbooks of climatology and in encyclopaedia articles about the Ice Ages.
In their 1976 paper Imbrie, Hays, and Shackleton wrote that their own climate forecasts, which were based on sea-sediment cores and the Milankovich cycles, "… must be qualified in two ways. First, they apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends - and not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted... the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate."
During the 1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and other scientists began promoting the theory that ‘greenhouse gasses’ such as carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human industries could lead to catastrophic global warming. Since the 1970s the theory of ‘anthropogenic global warming’ (AGW) has gradually become accepted as fact by most of the academic establishment, and their acceptance of AGW has inspired a global movement to encourage governments to make pivotal changes to prevent the worsening of AGW.
The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW theory is the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph which was presented by Al Gore in his 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth.” The ‘hockey stick’ graph shows an acute upward spike in global temperatures which began during the 1970s and continued through the winter of 2006/07. However, this warming trend was interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered the deepest snow cover to the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and the coldest temperatures since 2001. It now appears that the current Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold temperatures.
The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on evidence from only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring the evidence from the past million years -- evidence which is essential for a true understanding of climatology. The data from paleoclimatology provides us with an alternative and more credible explanation for the recent global temperature spike, based on the natural cycle of Ice Age maximums and interglacials.
In 1999 the British journal “Nature” published the results of data derived from glacial ice cores collected at the Russia’s Vostok station in Antarctica during the 1990s. The Vostok ice core data includes a record of global atmospheric temperatures, atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and airborne particulates starting from 420,000 years ago and continuing through history up to our present time.
The graph of the Vostok ice core data shows that the Ice Age maximums and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic pattern, the graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat on an electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows that changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse. In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing global temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise.
The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the global temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them from loosing their ‘fizz’, which is a feature of their carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer, they release increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.
Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the changes in the earth’s temperature, we should expect to see global CO2 levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the end of the earth’s current Interglacial warm period. We should already be eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels begin to drop in response to the increased chilling of the world’s oceans.
The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels regularly rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of Ice Age minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty thousand years. Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years global temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at approximately the same levels which they are at today.
Today we are again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial, and the earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky, we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, as it always has, in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the effects of AGW.
The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the ‘big picture’ of long-term climate change. The data from paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues to distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored.
http://english.pravda.ru/
Science: Another Ice Age?
In Africa, drought continues for the sixth consecutive year, adding terribly to the toll of famine victims. During 1972 record rains in parts of the U.S., Pakistan and Japan caused some of the worst flooding in centuries. In Canada's wheat belt, a particularly chilly and rainy spring has delayed planting and may well bring a disappointingly small harvest. Rainy Britain, on the other hand, has suffered from uncharacteristic dry spells the past few springs. A series of unusually cold winters has gripped the American Far West, while New England and northern Europe have recently experienced the mildest winters within anyone's recollection.
As they review the bizarre and unpredictable weather pattern of the past several years, a growing number of scientists are beginning to suspect that many seemingly contradictory meteorological fluctuations are actually part of a global climatic upheaval. However widely the weather varies from place to place and time to time, when meteorologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find that the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing. Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age.
Telltale signs are everywhere —from the unexpected persistence and thickness of pack ice in the waters around Iceland to the southward migration of a warmth-loving creature like the armadillo from the Midwest.Since the 1940s the mean global temperature has dropped about 2.7° F. Although that figure is at best an estimate, it is supported by other convincing data. When Climatologist George J. Kukla of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and his wife Helena analyzed satellite weather data for the Northern Hemisphere, they found that the area of the ice and snow cover had suddenly increased by 12% in 1971 and the increase has persisted ever since. Areas of Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, for example, were once totally free of any snow in summer; now they are covered year round.
Scientists have found other indications of global cooling. For one thing there has been a noticeable expansion of the great belt of dry, high-altitude polar winds —the so-called circumpolar vortex—that sweep from west to east around the top and bottom of the world. Indeed it is the widening of this cap of cold air that is the immediate cause of Africa's drought. By blocking moisture-bearing equatorial winds and preventing them from bringing rainfall to the parched sub-Sahara region, as well as other drought-ridden areas stretching all the way from Central America to the Middle East and India, the polar winds have in effect caused the Sahara and other deserts to reach farther to the south. Paradoxically, the same vortex has created quite different weather quirks in the U.S. and other temperate zones. As the winds swirl around the globe, their southerly portions undulate like the bottom of a skirt. Cold air is pulled down across the Western U.S. and warm air is swept up to the Northeast. The collision of air masses of widely differing temperatures and humidity can create violent storms—the Midwest's recent rash of disastrous tornadoes, for example.
Sunspot Cycle. The changing weather is apparently connected with differences in the amount of energy that the earth's surface receives from the sun. Changes in the earth's tilt and distance from the sun could, for instance, significantly increase or decrease the amount of solar radiation falling on either hemisphere—thereby altering the earth's climate. Some observers have tried to connect the eleven-year sunspot cycle with climate patterns, but have so far been unable to provide a satisfactory explanation of how the cycle might be involved.
Man, too, may be somewhat responsible for the cooling trend. The University of Wisconsin's Reid A. Bryson and other climatologists suggest that dust and other particles released into the atmosphere as a result of farming and fuel burning may be blocking more and more sunlight from reaching and heating the surface of the earth.
Climatic Balance. Some scientists like Donald Oilman, chief of the National Weather Service's long-range-prediction group, think that the cooling trend may be only temporary. But all agree that vastly more information is needed about the major influences on the earth's climate. Indeed, it is to gain such knowledge that 38 ships and 13 aircraft, carrying scientists from almost 70 nations, are now assembling in the Atlantic and elsewhere for a massive 100-day study of the effects of the tropical seas and atmosphere on worldwide weather. The study itself is only part of an international scientific effort known acronymically as GARP (for Global Atmospheric Research Program).
Whatever the cause of the cooling trend, its effects could be extremely serious, if not catastrophic. Scientists figure that only a 1% decrease in the amount of sunlight hitting the earth's surface could tip the climatic balance, and cool the planet enough to send it sliding down the road to another ice age within only a few hundred years.
The earth's current climate is something of an anomaly; in the past 700,000 years, there have been at least seven major episodes of glaciers spreading over much of the planet. Temperatures have been as high as they are now only about 5% of the time. But there is a peril more immediate than the prospect of another ice age. Even if temperature and rainfall patterns change only slightly in the near future in one or more of the three major grain-exporting countries—the U.S., Canada and Australia —global food stores would be sharply reduced. University of Toronto Climatologist Kenneth Hare, a former president of the Royal Meteorological Society, believes that the continuing drought and the recent failure of the Russian harvest gave the world a grim premonition of what might happen. Warns Hare: "I don't believe that the world's present population is sustainable if there are more than three years like 1972 in a row."
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...#ixzz0h09mUC12
The Coming Ice Age
By David Deming
Those who ignore the geologic perspective do so at great risk. In fall of 1985, geologists warned that a Columbian volcano, Nevado del Ruiz, was getting ready to erupt. But the volcano had been dormant for 150 years. So government officials and inhabitants of nearby towns did not take the warnings seriously. On the evening of November 13, Nevado del Ruiz erupted, triggering catastrophic mudslides. In the town of Armero, 23,000 people were buried alive in a matter of seconds.
For ninety percent of the last million years, the normal state of the Earth's climate has been an ice age. Ice ages last about 100,000 years, and are punctuated by short periods of warm climate, or interglacials. The last ice age started about 114,000 years ago. It began instantaneously. For a hundred-thousand years, temperatures fell and sheets of ice a mile thick grew to envelop much of North America, Europe and Asia. The ice age ended nearly as abruptly as it began. Between about 12,000 and 10,000 years ago, the temperature in Greenland rose more than 50 °F.
We don't know what causes ice ages to begin or end. In 1875, a janitor turned geologist, James Croll, proposed that small variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun were responsible for climate change. This idea enjoyed its greatest heyday during the 1970s, when ocean sediment cores appeared to confirm the theory. But in 1992, Ike Winograd and his colleagues at the US Geological Survey falsified the theory by demonstrating that its predictions were inconsistent with new, high-quality data.
The climate of the ice ages is documented in the ice layers of Greenland and Antarctica. We have cored these layers, extracted them, and studied them in the laboratory. Not only were ice ages colder than today, but the climates were considerably more variable. Compared to the norm of the last million years, our climate is remarkably warm, stable and benign. During the last ice age in Greenland abrupt climatic swings of 30 °F were common. Since the ice age ended, variations of 3 °F are uncommon.
For thousands of years, people have learned from experience that cold temperatures are detrimental for human welfare and warm temperatures are beneficial. From about 1300 to 1800 AD, the climate cooled slightly during a period known as the Little Ice Age. In Greenland, the temperature fell by about 4 °F. Although trivial, compared to an ice age cooling of 50 °F, this was nevertheless sufficient to wipe out the Viking colony there.
In northern Europe, the Little Ice Age kicked off with the Great Famine of 1315. Crops failed due to cold temperatures and incessant rain. Desperate and starving, parents ate their children, and people dug up corpses from graves for food. In jails, inmates instantly set upon new prisoners and ate them alive.
The Great Famine was followed by the Black Death, the greatest disaster ever to hit the human race. One-third of the human race died; terror and anarchy prevailed. Human civilization as we know it is only possible in a warm interglacial climate. Short of a catastrophic asteroid impact, the greatest threat to the human race is the onset of another ice age.
The oscillation between ice ages and interglacial periods is the dominant feature of Earth's climate for the last million years. But the computer models that predict significant global warming from carbon dioxide cannot reproduce these temperature changes. This failure to reproduce the most significant aspect of terrestrial climate reveals an incomplete understanding of the climate system, if not a nearly complete ignorance.
Global warming predictions by meteorologists are based on speculative, untested, and poorly constrained computer models. But our knowledge of ice ages is based on a wide variety of reliable data, including cores from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this case, it would be perspicacious to listen to the geologists, not the meteorologists. By reducing our production of carbon dioxide, we risk hastening the advent of the next ice age. Even more foolhardy and dangerous is the Obama administration's announcement that they may try to cool the planet through geoengineering. Such a move in the middle of a cooling trend could provoke the irreversible onset of an ice age. It is not hyperbole to state that such a climatic change would mean the end of human civilization as we know it.
Earth's climate is controlled by the Sun. In comparison, every other factor is trivial. The coldest part of the Little Ice Age during the latter half of the seventeenth century was marked by the nearly complete absence of sunspots. And the Sun now appears to be entering a new period of quiescence. August of 2008 was the first month since the year 1913 that no sunspots were observed. As I write, the sun remains quiet. We are in a cooling trend. The areal extent of global sea ice is above the twenty-year mean.
We have heard much of the dangers of global warming due to carbon dioxide. But the potential danger of any potential anthropogenic warming is trivial compared to the risk of entering a new ice age. Public policy decisions should be based on a realistic appraisal that takes both climate scenarios into consideration.
David Deming is a geophysicist and associate professor of Arts and Sciences at the University of Oklahoma.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/...g_ice_age.html
30 Years of Global Cooling Are Coming, Leading Scientist Says
FOXNews.com
From Miami to Maine, Savannah to Seattle, America is caught in an icy grip that one of the U.N.'s top global warming proponents says could mark the beginning of a mini ice age.
http://www.foxnews.com/static/manage...ay_604x341.jpg
December temperatures compared to average December temps recorded between 2000 and 2008. Blue points to colder than average land surface temperatures, while red indicates warmer temperatures.
From Miami to Maine, Savannah to Seattle, America is caught in an icy grip that one of the U.N.'s top global warming proponents says could mark the beginning of a mini ice age.
Oranges are freezing and millions of tropical fish are dying in Florida, and it could be just the beginning of a decades-long deep freeze, says Professor Mojib Latif, one of the world's leading climate modelers.
Latif thinks the cold snap Americans have been suffering through is only the beginning. He says we're in for 30 years of cooler temperatures -- a mini ice age, he calls it, basing his theory on an analysis of natural cycles in water temperatures in the world's oceans.
Latif, a professor at the Leibniz Institute at Germany's Kiel University and an author of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, believes the lengthy cold weather is merely a pause -- a 30-years-long blip -- in the larger cycle of global warming, which postulates that temperatures will rise rapidly over the coming years.
At a U.N. conference in September, Latif said that changes in ocean currents known as the North Atlantic Oscillation could dominate over manmade global warming for the next few decades. Latif said the fluctuations in these currents could also be responsible for much of the rise in global temperatures seen over the past 30 years.
Latif is a key member of the UN's climate research arm, which has long promoted the concept of global warming. He told the Daily Mail that "a significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles -- perhaps as much as 50 percent."
The U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSICD) agrees that the cold temperatures are unusual, and that the world's oceans may play a part in temperatures on land.
"Has ocean variability contributed to variations in surface temperature? Absolutely, no one's denying that," said Mark Serreze, senior research scientist with NSIDC. But the Center disagrees with Latif's conclusions, instead arguing that the cold snap is still another sign of global warming.
"We are indeed starting to see the effects of the rise in greenhouse gases," he said.
Many parts of the world have been suffering through record-setting snowfalls and arctic temperatures. The Midwest saw wind chills as low as 49 degrees below zero last week, while Europe saw snows so heavy that Eurostar train service and air travel were canceled across much of the continent. In Asia, Beijing was hit by its heaviest snowfall in 60 years.
And as for the cold weather?
"This is just the roll of the dice, the natural variability inherent to the system," explained Serreze.
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/...ng-scientists/
Matahari Tidur, Bumi Membeku
Sabtu, 30 Januari 2010 | 08:13 WIB
http://stat.k.kidsklik.com/data/phot...3/3153185p.jpg
Kincir angin bersejarah meneteskan air yang langsung membeku di Furtwangen, Black Forest, barat daya Jerman, Senin (12/1). Walaupun cuaca sudah lebih hangat daripada beberapa hari sebelumnya, udara pada malam hari tetap amat dingin.
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com — Cuaca dingin ekstrem melanda kawasan lintang tinggi Bumi. Fenomena ini, antara lain, disebabkan oleh Matahari yang tidur berkepanjangan. Dampaknya menjadi terasa berat karena semakin diperparah oleh adanya pemanasan Bumi dan perubahan iklim global.
Sejak Desember lalu, suhu ekstrem terus melanda kawasan Lintang Utara, yaitu mulai dari Benua Amerika, Eropa, hingga Asia. Di Eropa, suhu dingin bulan lalu pernah mencapai minus 16 derajat celsius di Rusia dan minus 22 derajat celsius di Jerman. Bagi Inggris, ini suhu ekstrem terdingin dalam 30 tahun terakhir. Jalur transportasi ke Perancis lumpuh.
Amerika Serikat pun mengalami hal yang sama. Serbuan cuaca ekstrem ini berdampak pada kegagalan panen di Florida dan menyebabkan dua orang meninggal di New York.
Kejadian luar biasa yang berskala global ini diyakini para pengamat meteorologi dan astronomi berkaitan dengan kondisi melemahnya aktivitas Matahari yang ditandai oleh menurunnya kejadian bintik matahari atau sunspot.
Bintik hitam yang tampak di permukaan Matahari melalui teropong bila dilihat dari sisi samping menyerupai tonggak yang muncul dari permukaan Matahari. Tonggak itu terjadi akibat berpusarnya massa magnet di perut Matahari hingga menembus permukaan.
Akibat munculnya bintik hitam berdiameter sekitar 32.000 kilometer atau 2,5 kali diameter rata-rata Bumi, suhu gas di fotosfer dan kromosfer naik sekitar 800 derajat celsius dari normalnya. Hal ini dapat mengakibatkan badai matahari dan ledakan cahaya yang disebut flare.
Namun, yang terjadi beberapa tahun terakhir ini adalah Matahari nonaktif. Menurunnya aktivitas Matahari itu berdasarkan pantauan Clara Yono Yatini, Kepala Bidang Matahari dan Antariksa Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional (Lapan), mulai terlihat sejak tahun 2000.
Para pakar astrofisika matahari di dunia menyebut tahun 2008 sebagai tahun dengan hari tanpa bintik matahari yang tergolong terendah dalam 50 tahun terakhir. Mereka memperkirakan beberapa tahun sesudah 2008 akan menjadi tahun-tahun yang dingin, kata Mezak Ratag, pakar astrofisika yang tengah merintis pendirian Earth and Space Science Institute di Manado, Sulawesi Utara.
Pengukuran kuat medan magnet bintik matahari dalam 20 tahun terakhir di Observatorium Kitt Peak Arizona menunjukkan penurunan. Dari medan magnet maksimum rata-rata 3.000 gauss pada awal 1990-an turun menjadi sekitar 2.000 gauss saat ini.
Penurunan sangat signifikan ini merupakan bukti bahwa hingga beberapa waktu ke depan Matahari masih akan pada keadaan malas, kata Mezak. Ia memperkirakan kalau aktivitas maksimumnya terjadi pada sekitar tahun 2013, tingkatnya tidak akan setinggi maksimum dalam beberapa siklus terakhir.
Matahari dan iklim
Saat matahari redup berkepanjangan, musim dingin ekstrem berpotensi terjadi karena Matahari—sumber energi bagi lingkungan tata surya—adalah penggerak mesin iklim di Bumi.
Sejak 1865, data di Lapan menunjukkan kecenderungan curah hujan berkurang saat Matahari tenang. Demikian pula musim dingin parah sejak akhir 2009 terjadi saat Matahari amat tenang (deep minimum) mirip kejadian 1995-1996, urai Thomas Djamaluddin, Kepala Pusat Pemanfaatan Sains Atmosfer dan Iklim Lapan.
Bukti keterkaitan dengan perilaku Matahari ini ditunjukkan oleh fenomena kebalikannya, yaitu musim dingin minim salju saat Matahari aktif pada tahun 1989. Musim dingin sangat panjang terjadi saat Minimum Maunder tahun 1645-1716 dan minimum Dalton awal 1980-an.
Kondisi serupa terjadi pada 1910-1914. Itu banyak dikaitkan dengan dinginnya laut pada musibah tenggelamnya Titanic pada April 1912. Normalnya, waktu itu sudah musim semi.
Sementara itu, Mezak berpendapat, pola aktivitas Matahari minimum saat ini mirip dengan kejadian tahun 1880, 1890, 1900, dan 1910. Jadi, siklus Matahari tidak hanya menunjukkan siklus sebelas tahun. Ada siklus lebih panjang dengan periode sekitar 100 tahun—siklus Gleisberg. Dalam catatan meteorologis, saat terjadi siklus itu, banyak cuaca ekstrem dingin, tetapi tidak seekstrem Minimum Maunder.
Cuaca dan GRK
Efek aktivitas Matahari minimum lebih banyak memengaruhi daerah lintang tinggi. Aktivitas Matahari sejak sekitar tahun 2007 hingga kini memperbesar peluang terjadinya gradien suhu yang besar antara lintang tinggi dan lintang rendah. Akibatnya, kecepatan komponen angin arah utara-selatan (meridional) tinggi.
Prof CP Chang, yang mengetuai Panel Eksekutif Monsun Badan Meteorologi Dunia (WMO), berkesimpulan, aktivitas monsun lintas ekuator yang dipicu gradien suhu yang besar di arah utara-selatan akhir-akhir ini meningkat secara signifikan dibandingkan dengan statistik 50 tahun terakhir.
Hal ini memperkuat dugaan, aktivitas Matahari minimum yang panjang berkaitan erat dengan cuaca ekstrem dingin. Di Indonesia, kejadian angin berkecepatan tinggi lintas ekuator menjadi penyebab utama munculnya gelombang-gelombang tinggi dari Laut China Selatan ke perairan Laut Jawa.
Adanya gas rumah kaca di atmosfer, lanjut Thomas, juga meningkatkan suhu udara yang menyebabkan perubahan iklim. Efek gabungannya cenderung meningkatkan kerawanan bencana terkait iklim, kata Thomas.
Teori pemanasan global mengatakan, atmosfer yang memanas membuat partikel-partikel udara menjadi semakin energetik dan berpotensi menghasilkan cuaca ekstrem. (YUNI IKAWATI)
http://sains.kompas.com/read/2010/01.....Bumi.Membeku
"Matahari Tenang" Menyebabkan Cuaca Ekstrem
Kamis, 24 Desember 2009 | 04:46 WIB
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Cuaca ekstrem di lintang utara, antara lain, Eropa dan Amerika bagian utara yang terjadi beberapa hari terakhir ini terkait dengan kondisi ”Matahari tenang” yang berkepanjangan. Selain itu, disebabkan oleh perubahan iklim global.
Hal ini dijelaskan Kepala Pusat Pemanfaatan Sains Atmosfer dan Iklim Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional (Lapan) Thomas Djamaluddin, Rabu (23/12/2009) di Jakarta.
Thomas mencatat beberapa musim dingin yang minim salju terkait dengan kondisi Matahari aktif dan sebaliknya musim dingin bersuhu ekstrem di Bumi terkait dengan Matahari tenang, yaitu sedikit hingga tanpa adanya bintik Matahari.
Menurut pemantauan Clara Yono Yatini, Kepala Bidang Matahari dan Antariksa Lapan, penurunan kejadian bintik Matahari mulai terlihat sejak 2000.
Bintik hitam yang tampak di permukaan Matahari melalui teropong dilihat dari sisi samping menyerupai tonggak-tonggak yang muncul dari permukaan Matahari. Tonggak itu terbentuk dari aktivitas massa magnet yang terpelintir atau berpusar di perut Matahari hingga menembus permukaan.
Bintik hitam Matahari itu berdiameter sekitar 32.000 kilometer atau 2,5 kali diameter rata-rata Bumi. Akibat munculnya bintik Matahari, suhu gas di fotosfer dan kromosfer di atasnya dapat naik sekitar 800 derajat celsius dari normal. Hal itu mengakibatkan gas ini memancarkan sinar lebih besar dibandingkan gas di sekelilingnya.
Di atas bintik Matahari, yaitu di daerah kromosfer dan korona juga dapat terjadi badai Matahari dan ledakan cahaya yang disebut flare.
Cuaca Bumi[/B]
Lonjakan massa gas bersuhu tinggi ini tidak hanya memengaruhi magnet Bumi, tetapi juga cuaca di atmosfer Bumi, lanjut Thomas, pakar astronomi dan astrofisik. Kondisi Matahari juga berefek pada intensitas curah hujan di Indonesia.
Data Lapan menunjukkan ada kecenderungan curah hujan berkurang saat Matahari tenang. Secara global, efek aktivitas Matahari mengemisikan gas rumah kaca, terutama CO. Akibatnya, iklim ekstrem dapat lebih sering terjadi dengan intensitas yang cenderung menguat. (YUN)
http://sains.kompas.com/read/2009/12....Cuaca.Ekstrem
The Ice Age Cometh
by Andrew Kenny
The Sunday Mail, 14 July 2002
A new ice age is due now, but you wont hear it from the green groups, who like to play on Western guilt about consumerism to make us believe in global warming.
THE Earth's climate is changing in a dramatic way, with immense danger for mankind and the natural systems that sustain it. This was the frightening message broadcast to us by environmentalists in the recent past. Here are some of their prophecies.
The facts have emerged, in recent years and months, from research into past ice ages. They imply that the threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind. (Nigel Calder, former editor of New Scientist, in International Wildlife, July 1975)
The cooling has already killed thousands of people in poor nations... If it continues, and no strong measures are taken to deal with it, the cooling will cause world famine, world chaos, and probably world war, and this could all come about by the year 2000. (Lowe Ponte, The Cooling, 1976)
As recently as January 1994, the supreme authority on matters environmental, Time magazine, wrote:
The ice age cometh? Last week's big chill was a reminder that the Earth's climate can change at any time ... The last (ice age) ended 10,000 years ago; the next one— for there will be a next on—could start tens of thousands of years from now. Or tens of years. Or it may have already started.
The scare about global cooling was always the same: unprecedented low temperatures; the coldest weather recorded; unusual floods and storms; a rapid shift in the world's climate towards an icy apocalypse.
But now, the scare is about global warming. To convert from the first scare to the second, all you have to do is substitute "the coldest weather recorded" with "the warmest weather recorded". Replace the icicles hanging from oranges in California with melting glaciers on Mt Everest, and the shivering armadillos with sweltering polar bears. We were going to freeze but now we are going to fry.
Even the White House is making cautionary sounds about warming.
What facts have emerged to make this dramatic reversal? Well, none really. The most reliable measurements show no change whatsoever in global temperatures in the past 20 years. What has changed is the perception that global warming makes a better scare than the coming ice age.
A good environmental scare needs two ingredients. The first is impending catastrophe. The second is a suitable culprit to blame. In the second case, the ice age fails and global warming is gloriously successful. It is not the destruction itself of Sodom and Gomorrah that makes the story so appealing but the fact that they were destroyed because they were so sinful.
One of the real threats to mankind is the danger of collision with a large asteroid. It has happened in the past with catastrophic effect, and it will probably happen again. But there are no conferences, resolutions, gatherings, protests and newspaper headlines about asteroid impacts. The reason is that you cannot find anyone suitable to blame for them. If you could persuade people that President Bush or the oil companies were responsible for the asteroids, I guarantee there would be a billion-dollar campaign to "raise awareness" about the asteroid danger, with sonorous editorials in all the papers.
Global warming has the perfect culprit: naughty, industrialised, advanced, consuming, Western society, which has made itself very rich by burning a lot of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas). This, so the scare goes, is releasing a lot of carbon dioxide. which is dangerously heating up the world.
THERE are two facts in the scare. First, it is true that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas one which traps heat on Earth. (Without it, the Earth would be too cold for' life.) Second, it is true that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising. The rest is guesswork.
The global warmers said the most accurate measure of climate change would be air temperatures. For the past 20 years or more, air temperatures have been measured with extreme accuracy. They show no warming whatsoever.
Surface temperatures are much less reliable since the recording stations are often encroached on by expanding cities, which warm the local environment. The curve most often used by the global warmers is one showing surface temperatures rising by about half a degree in the past 100 years. (The curve, incidentally, is a bad match against rising carbon dioxide but a good one against solar activity, which suggests the sun might be the reason for the warming.)
However, there are accurate methods of measuring sea temperatures going back much further. Past temperatures for the Atlantic Ocean have been found by looking at dead marine life. The isotope ratio of carbon-14 in their skeletons tells you when they lived. The ratio of other isotopes tells you the temperature then. Thus we are able to know temperatures in the Atlantic and northern Europe going back thousands of years. They make nonsense of the global warming scare.
The last ice age ended about 10,000 years ago. Temperatures rose to the "Holocene Maximum" of about 5000 years ago when it was about l.5°C higher than now, dropped in the time of Christ, and then rose to the "Medieval Climate Optimum" in the years 600 to 1100, when temperatures. were about 1°C higher than now. This was a golden age for northern European. agriculture and led to the rise of Viking civilisation.
Greenland, now a frozen wasteland, was then a habitable Viking colony. There were vineyards in the south of England. Then temperatures dropped to "The Little Ice Age" in the 1600s, when the Thames froze over. And they have been rising slowly ever since, although they are still much lower than 1000 years ago.
We are now in a rather cool period.
What caused these ups and downs of temperature? We do not know. Temperature changes are a fact of nature, and we have no idea if the claimed 0.3C heating over the past 100 years is caused by man's activities or part of a natural cycle.
What we can say, though, is that if Europe heats up by 1°C it would do it a power of good. We can see this from records of 1000 years ago. Moreover, increased carbon dioxide makes plants grow more quickly, so improving crops and forests.
The Earth's climate is immensely complicated, far beyond our present powers of understanding and the calculating powers of modern computers. Changes in phase from ice to water to vapour; cloud formation; convection; ocean currents; winds; changes in the sun: the complicated shapes of the land masses; the ability of the oceans to absorb carbon dioxide — all of these and a thousand other factors operating with small differences over vast masses and distances make it practically impossible for us to make predictions about long-term climate patterns, and perhaps make such predictions inherently impossible. The computer models that the global warmers now use are ludicrously oversimplified, and it is no surprise they have made one wrong prediction after another.
If the global warming scare has little foundation in fact, the ice-age scare is only too solidly founded. For the past two million years, but not before, the northern hemisphere has gone through a regular cycle of ice ages: 90,000 years with ice: 10,000 years without. The last ice age ended 10,000 years ago. Our time is up. The next ice age is due.
We do not know what causes the ice ages. It is probably to do with the arrangement of northern land masses and the path of the Gulf Stream, but we do not know.
However, a new ice age, unlike global warming, would be a certain calamity.
It may be that increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are actually warding off the ice age. In this case, we should give tax relief to coal power stations and factories for every tonne of carbon dioxide they release.
When the global warmers tell us the stakes are high, they are quite right. Global warming has become an immense international gravy train worth billions of dollars. It is now one of the largest recipients of government research money in the world.
It finances jobs, grants, conferences, international travel and journals. It not only keeps a huge army of people in comfortable employment but also fills them with self-righteousness and moral superiority. It enables the green movement to say: "The end is nigh unless you give us more funding, repent, and do what we say."
Behind these exhortations is the vision of Rousseau, of a retreat from the evil industrialised world of motor cars and electricity back to the simpler, nobler world of nature (except for the green priesthood who will still be allowed to fly in jet planes to conferences).
When President Bush denounced the Kyoto Protocol on greenhouse gases, the global warmers said: "It's payback time." They were referring to the oil companies which had supposedly made big donations to his election campaign.
But if Al Gore had won and given even more funding to the warmers, it would have been payback time in a more pointed way. The oil companies can easily diversify out of oil and into other forms of energy — they are already doing so; BP is the world's largest producer of solar panels.
The global warmers are a more constrained vested interest. They depend on frightening the public and need global warming. This is why they get so furious when anyone dares to challenge the scare. The fraud of the warming scare is seen most vividly when the warmers propose their remedies for it. The best technology for avoiding the emission of carbon dioxide is nuclear power. In operation, nuclear power plants release no carbon dioxide and over their whole cycle (construction, fuel processing and decommissioning) they release the least carbon dioxide of any energy source, including wind and solar power. Half of the 272 million tonnes of man-made carbon dioxide that South Africa produces comes from coal power stations; South Africa could halve its total emissions simply by turning to nuclear power for electricity generation.
Nuclear power has by far the best safety record of any large-scale source of electricity. The worst accident at a nuclear power station in the West, at Three Mile Island in the United States in 1979, killed no one, injured no one and had no ill effects afterwards. By contrast gas, oil, coal and hydro accidents almost routinely kill thousands of people every year. The Chernobyl accident, which after 16 years has killed about 40 people, was caused primarily by bad reactor design, which would never be allowed in the West. The waste from nuclear power is small, solid, stable and of finite life. Nuclear power is the only large-scale source of electricity that has procedures for disposing of its waste (which is easy to do). The waste from coal stations is enormously larger, much more dangerous and longer lived; it includes heavy metal toxins, which last for ever, and radioactive elements such as thorium, which has a half-life of 14 billion years.
COAL waste is simply thrown on to open ash tips or hurled into the air we breathe. But the global warmers fiercely resist nuclear power. They do not want it precisely because it offers the world bountiful electricity. What they want is to turn away from the modern world of plenty to a primitive world of scarcity. They do not want people in the poor countries to obtain higher living standards; they want them mired in noble poverty.
One of the biggest sources of carbon dioxide is motor vehicles. If your speed doubles, you emit four times as much carbon dioxide. Some European politicians, especially in Germany, are very concerned about global warming. So how about imposing a 80km/h speed limit on all roads in the European Union and limiting engine size to 1000cc? Ask German politicians who back the warming scare, which is more important, the future of the world or an infantile desire to travel at high speed. The answer is clear: speed. So much for serious debate.
The global warming scare uses almost every propaganda device. There are continual appeals to scientific authority. The propagandists pretend there is scientific consensus that man's activities are definitely changing the climate in a dangerous way.
This is an outright lie. You will find no reputable scientist who says so. Graphs are carefully edited so that parts showing cooling are removed and those showing warming are kept. Cooling incidents, such as thickening of ice caps, snow in Saudi Arabia and record low temperatures, are ignored. Warming incidents, such as breaking ice shelves and record high temperatures, are headlines. This is not a co-ordinated conspiracy but a fashion in which self-interest and ideology combine, and green activists, politicians and journalists help each other to get more funding, more sensational stories and more enemies to blame.
The climate of our planet is far too important for this nonsense. What we need is more genuine scientific research. If we do decide on the "precautionary principle" of keeping carbon dioxide levels stable, we can turn to those many technologies, proven or in prospect, which release no or little carbon dioxide. Nuclear power is the obvious first choice.
There is no reason the world economy cannot continue to prosper with lower greenhouse emissions. But, for heaven's sake, let's start by telling the whole truth and giving all the facts.
http://ourcivilisation.com/aginatur/iceage.htm
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Originally Posted by KINGWARRIOR
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