Bush: Ekonomi AS Sedang Menuju Jurang Kehancuran

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[url]http://marcelinopena.wordpress.com/2008/04/11/us-economy-2008-political-cartoons-juggernut/[/url

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28/09/2008 07:02
Bailout AS Mirip BLBI


INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Rencana penyelamatan sektor keuangan di AS (bailout) sebesar US$ 700 miliar dinilai mirip Bantuan Likuditas Bank Indonesia (BLBI). Namun apa yang terjadi di AS ini bakal berdampak luas kepada seluruh negara di dunia.

Pengamat ekonomi, Farial Anwar mengatakan bailout pemerintas AS sebesar US$ 700 miliar sama seperti halnya BI menyuntikkan dana kepada bank-bank bermasalah saat krisis ekonomi di 1998. Kejadiannya pada saat itu, kata Farial, nilai tukar anjlok yang diperparah dengan gejolak suku bunga.

Indonesia saat itu terpukul dari dua sisi yaitu nilai tukar dan sisi suku bunga. Suku bunga sebagai akibat mengikuti permintaan dana moneter internasional (IMF) untuk menaikkan suku bunga. “Nah begitu juga yang terjadi di negara-negara Asia lainnya. Guncangannya luar biasa,” katanya kepada INILAH.COM, di Jakarta kemarin.

Saat ini, lanjut Ketua Currency Management Board itu, kejadian serupa menimpa Amerika Serikat. Bedanya, guncangan di AS bukan akibat anjloknya nilai tukar dolar AS, tapi lebih karena kredit macet.

“Krisis subprime itulah yang mengakibatkan dampak buruk bagi market di mana-mana. Krisis itu berdampak pada bangkrutnya perusahaan-perusahaan termasuk kelas dunia.”

Pada mulanya, kata Farial, para pengamat menilai perusahaan-perusahaan itu hebat. Farial merinci nama-nama perusahan seperti Lehman Brothers, Meryll Lynch, AIG, Freddie Mac dan Fanny Mae. Di pasar finansial nama-nama itu merupakan nama besar. “Siapa yang tidak kenal mereka,” katanya.

Tapi ternyata semua perusahaan itu bangkrut. Kebangkrutan itu merambah juga kepada siapa saja yang menempatkan kredit di sektor properti di AS yang macet. “Tapi, kerusakannya yang terbesar terjadi di Amerika Serikat,” katanya.

Bukti kongkrit dari gejolak lembaga keuangan di AS salah satunya adalah di-PHK-nya 1.100 karyawan bank raksasa, HSBC diseluruh dunia. Hampir separuh dari karyawan yang akan di PHK berasal dari unit HSBC di Inggris.

"Langkah yang kita ambil pada hari ini berkaitan dengan kondisi bisnis global dan lingkungan ekonomi serta perhatian kita pada proyeksi di tahun 2009," demikian pernyataan dari HSBC seperti dikutip dari AFP.

Selain Inggris, sekitar 100 karyawan di Hong Kong juga akan dikurangi. PHK ini berlaku untuk karyawan front office dan back office, dan berlaku untuk unit global banking dan pasar.

"Pasar semakin menantang dan sulit, namun strategi kami membuat posisi kami tetap baik untuk gelombang pertumbuhan ekonomi berikutnya di masa yang akan datang," ujar HSBC
http://www.inilah.com/berita/ekonomi...as-mirip-blbi/


SUARA PEMBARUAN DAILY
Hancurnya WaMu dan Fortis, Perberat Ekonomi AS
Kongres Janji Setujui Program Penyelamatan Krisis

Bayangan seorang pria terlihat di balik jendela gedung bank Washington Mutual, Jumat (26/9). Bank yang didirikan tahun 1889 menjadi bank terbesar yang ditutup dalam sejarah AS.

[WASHINGTON] Para pemimpin Kongres AS berjanji untuk menyelesaikan pekerjaan mereka, terkait dengan persetujuan program penyelamatan krisis keuangan negara itu, pada akhir pekan ini. Bersamaan dengan itu Presiden George W Bush mengimbau supaya kedua pihak di Kongres AS menemukan kesamaan pandangan untuk bisa dicapai kesepakatan.

"Proses di legislatif memang terkadang tidak begitu baik, tetapi kita pasti akan mendapat persetujuan soal paket penyelamatan ini. Kita akan tingkatkan usaha ini," tegas Bush.

Pembicaraan antara pemerintah dan Kongres AS sepanjang akhir pekan ini akan diteruskan untuk mendapat persetujuan dikucurkannya program penyelamatan US$ 700 miliar untuk membeli aset "beracun" di sektor keuangan.

Pemimpin mayoritas Partai Demokrat di Senat, Harry Reid mengungkapkan, Kong-res masih akan membahas soal ini dan tidak akan menunda sesuai rencana hari Jumat untuk mempersiapkan pemilu 4 November. Jadi, Kongres akan menuntaskan persoalan ini sampai selesai.

"Kita akan menyelesaikannya dan terus membahas sampai benar-benar tuntas. Kita akan bekerja sama dengan presiden, menyempurnakan rencananya supaya lebih baik di mata para pembayar pajak dan pemilik rumah," ujarnya.

Tidak ada alasan kenapa kesepakatan ini harus diselesaikan sebelum hari Senin (29/9).

Kondisi krisis keuangan AS tampaknya makin terpuruk dengan kolapsnya Washington Mutual (WaMu). Ini merupakan kehancuran bisnis perbankan terbesar dalam sejarah AS. Kemudian muncul lagi krisis bank Fortis, lembaga keuangan milik Belgia dan Belanda yang ada di AS.

WaMu, yang memiliki rekor paling buruk dalam pengelolaan kredit perumahan, ditutup oleh Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Sejalan dengan itu JPMorgan Chase menyatakan membeli aset WaMu termasuk deposit yang dimiliki termasuk utang, seluruhnya berjumlah US$ 1,9 miliar (sekitar Rp 17,1 triliun).

Di Eropa, Bank Fortis mengumumkan tindakan darurat, yaitu penjualan aset untuk mendapatkan dana 5,0 miliar euro sampai 10 miliar euro (US$ 14 miliar). Saham mereka pada penutupan perdagangan ter- catat turun 21 persen
http://www.suarapembaruan.com/News/2...nomi/eko01.htm

Financial crisis signals end of an era in Wall Street IT world
Financial collapse brings on data center grab, clash of cultures
By Ellen Messmer and Brad Reed , Network World , 09/18/2008

Wall Street’s financial meltdown promises to forever change the way information technology spending is handled in the securities industry as the old giants of the capital markets stumble and banking behemoths move in to devour them whole or in part, scooping up technology assets.

Lehman Brothers last week tumbled into bankruptcy, sparking London-based bank Barclays to pounce at choicest morsels that include two Lehman’s data centers and its New York City headquarters building, at a fire-sale price. At the same time, Merrill Lynch & Co., facing its own troubles, agreed to be acquired by Bank of America for about $50 billion in a stock-swap deal. These stunning developments signal a new era in which more often banks will be in control of IT spending for securities trading technology, and analysts foresee a culture clash coming.

See just how much Wall Street's fat cats earned before the industry meltdown.

“Banking tends to not need real-time information as much as capital markets,” points out Sean O’Dowd, senior analyst at Financial Insights, an IDG Company. “Banks do batch overnight. Capital markets do millions of transactions processed in milliseconds. It’s a different type of culture.”

“It’s the cornerstone of what the next generation of this industry is going to look like,” says Robert Iati, partner at TABB Group, a research firm that closely watches the North American securities industry.

And changes may be in store for Wall Street’s last two standing investment houses, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, which are fighting the most severe market meltdown since the 1930’s because of the credit crunch.

In this new era, banks buttressed by their core lending will be taking the lead as “one-stop shops,” says Iati, with Bank of America possibly becoming a global powerhouse like Citibank, UBS or JPMorgan.

But what are the implications for jobs and spending on IT assets in the securities industry accustomed to lavishing fabulous sums on ultra-fast networks to compete in electronic trading, where today even a nanosecond may count?

“Merrill last year spent between $3.5 and $4 billion on people and technology,” says Iati. “Lehman’s outlay was $2.5 to $3 billion.” But TABB Group, largely as a result of last week’s events, predicts a sharp decline in IT-related spending for the North American securities industry, from $24.2 billion last year to $21.9 billion this year and down to $17.6 billion next year. (Next page 2 & 3
http://www.networkworld.com/news/200...c=netflash-rss

Living In Debt - A Summary of America's Current Economic Condition
Published 10/15/07 Economy In Crisis - Print Article
E-mail - [email protected]

America today is burdened with deeply rooted and unsustainable economic challenges. From credit debts and loss of manufacturing nationwide, to foreign nations buying our best companies and proping up the economy with loans, these issues impact every citizen. Here are the 16 major problems America faces today:

1. Wholesale sellout of core strategic assets to foreign acquirers: according to official figures, more than 16,613 American companies have been sold to foreign corporations in the last 30 years. Total foreign purchases total more than $1.5 trillion.

2. Subprime Fallout: more than one million home foreclosures have occurred in the first nine months of 2008 due to sub-prime lending. These negligent acts of predatory lending have taken houses from innocent homeowners and robbed the ability of deserving individuals to attain credit. The criminal behavior has also crippled America’s financial institutions. Banks such as IndyMac and Bear Sterns have collapsed while mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, seek a government bail-out to help shore-up $12 trillion in guaranteed home loans.

3. Housing Bubble Burst: America’s homes have hit their lowest value and sales rate while foreclosures soar. The median home value, as of June 2008, was $215,100, down 6.1 percent from the previous year. Home sales reached their lowest level in 10 years at an annual pace of 4.86 million, down 2.6 percent from June of 2007. Home values in 20 major metropolitan were down 15.8 percent while foreclosure filings rose 121 percent from the second quarter of 2007 to 2008.

4. Decline of vital industries through bankruptcy, foreign predatory competition, and foreign acquisition: examples include steel, publishing, textiles, machine tools, automobiles, electronics, movies and others

5. Inability to manufacture competitively: American manufacturers suffer a 22 percent structural cost disadvantage compared to overseas competitors through taxes, health and pension benefits, litigation, regulation, and unequal environmental protection

6. Overdependence on imports: $1 in $4 of US consumption of manufactured goods now goes immediately and directly to imports

7. Massive wealth transfer to foreign ownership: our trade deficit, at $711.6 billion in 2007, equal to almost $1.3 million per minute

8. Loss of job and career opportunities for people at all educational levels: 3 million high-paying manufacturing jobs lost over past 5 years

9. Insourcing of foreign manufacturers destroys our domestic industries, takes profits and taxes overseas, and provides only low-skill jobs for American workers: foreign manufacturers operating in the US now account for over 20 percent of our exports and manufacturing assets, and a large percentage of our employment

10. Dependence on foreign financing of vast majority of government debt: foreign countries now control more than 44 percent of our total federal deficit and finance nearly 100 percent of all new borrowings. Our competitors are now our bankers. China, Japan, Great Britain and Saudi Arabia account for more than $2.3 trillion in loans. Japan holds around $517.2 billion while China holds nearly $405.5 billion in loans.

11. Outsourcing key manufacturing, research, and design: unchecked offshore outsourcing benefits individual companies and shareholders but destroys entire industries and communities

12. Transition to services-oriented economy: high-paying goods-producing industries have lost net employment over the past 25 years while lower paying non-tradable service-providing employment has nearly doubled. Most new jobs are only in service positions in bars, resturants, hotels and hospitals

13. Lost scientific, engineering, technological prowess: in 2004, China and India graduated a combined 950,000 engineers versus 70,000 in the US. US ranks near the bottom of science/math proficiency

14. Record levels of personal and government debt: household liabilities at record levels, federal government adding record levels of debt each year financed mostly by foreign countries, trade deficits transferring unprecedented accelerating amounts of wealth to foreign hands each year. In 2005, the average U.S. savings rate was a negative 1%

15. Misleading commonly used economic statistics: misleading incomplete statistics like GDP, job creation, and productivity belie our crumbling economic infrastructure. In June 2007, Businessweek reported that 40% of the gains in manufacturing could be non-existent due to a miscalculation known as “phantom GDP.”

16. Proven failed trade policies and other legislation contributing to our demise continue unchallenged: destroying our industry and allowing our assets to be sold or taken from us
http://www.economyincrisis.org/articles/show/1138


Foreign Financing of US Government Debt





Foreign Ownership of US Domestic Industries
This data comes from IRS (Internal Revenue Service) - Current as of 2002 (latest data available).

Foreign ownership refers to ownership of assets of a particular industry by foreign controlled domestic U.S. Corporations (FDC) 50% or more owned by a foreign entity.

FOREIGN OWNERSHIP OF SELECTED U.S. INDUSTRIES

Industry Percentage Foreign Owned

Sound recording industries 97%
Commodity contracts dealing and brokerage 79%
Motion picture and sound recording industries 75%
Metal ore mining 65%
Motion picture and video industries 64%

Wineries and distilleries 64%
Database, directory, and other publishers 63%
Book publishers 63%
Cement, concrete, lime, and gypsum product 62%
Engine, turbine and power transmission equipment57%

Rubber product 53%
Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing 53%
Plastics and rubber products manufacturing 52%
Plastics product 51%
Other insurance related activities 51%

Boiler, tank, and shipping container 50%
Glass and glass product 48%
Coal mining 48%
Sugar and confectionery product 48%
Nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying 47%

Advertising and related services 41%
Pharmaceutical and medicine 40%
Clay,refractory,& other nonmetallic mineral products
40%
Securities brokerage 38%
Other general purpose machinery 37%

Audio and video equipment mfg and reproducing magnetic and optical media 36%
Support activities for mining 36%
Soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparation 32%
Chemical manufacturing 30%
Industrial machinery 30%


Securities, commodity contracts, and other financial investments and related activities 30%
Other food 29%
Motor vehicles and parts 29%
Machinery manufacturing 28%
Other electrical equipment and component 28%


Securities and commodity exchanges and other financial investment activities 27%
Architectural, engineering, and related services 26%
Credit card issuing and other consumer credit 26%
Petroleum refineries (including integrated) 25%
Navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments 25%

Petroleum and coal products manufacturing 25%
Transportation equipment manufacturing 25%
Commercial and service industry machinery 25%
Basic chemical 24%
Investment banking and securities dealing 24%

Semiconductor and other electronic component 23%
Paint, coating, and adhesive. 22%
Printing and related support activities 21%
Chemical product and preparation 20%
Iron, steel mills, and steel products 20%

Agriculture, construction, and mining machinery 20%
Publishing industries 20%
Medical equipment and supplies 20%


FOREIGN OWNERSHIP OF MAJOR U.S. INDUSTRIES

Industry Percentage Foreign Owned
Mining 27%
Information 24%
Manufacturing 20%
Professional, scientific, and technical services 20%
Finance and insurance 11%
http://www.economyincrisis.org/content/ownership

US financial crisis signals end to 'Reagan revolution': academic

Manila, Philippines - The turmoil affecting the US financial system is a sign the "Reagan revolution" - the belief that less government was better for the economy - is over, a senior academic told journalists in Manila Thursday.

"What we're seeing today is what I call the end of the Reagan revolution... the ideology (where) the best form of government is the least form of government," said Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, in Singapore.

"We've come a full circle. We now realise that you need actually good governance and good regulations and not just let the market run the show," he said.

"If we don't have regulations we have these remarkable excesses," resulting in huge banks and institutions acquring questionable debt, he told foreign correspondents on the fringe of an Asian Development Bank conference.

He was speaking as world markets reel from the collapse of Wall Street investment banking giant Lehman Brothers this week and the bailout of insurance titan AIG on the back of the US subprime mortgage crisis.

Mahbubani told reporters it was "shocking" that trusted institutions "finally demonstrated that they didn't know what they were doing."

He singled out Lehman Brothers, ex-US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, former US treasury secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers and international credit rating agencies for not detecting the signs of the sub-prime crisis.

Mahbubani said the financial stresses showed the need for proper government regulation but added the crisis had also led people to question the quality of regulators.

"There was a time when you knew where the good standard of regulation was. Now, nobody's sure anymore. Everybody's asking the fundamental question: how do we regulate?"

"My sense is that nobody has the answer," he remarked.

Asian countries might be better protected from the effects of the crisis originating from the United States as many of them had adopted a "culture of prudence and savings," following the 1997 Asian financial crisis, he added.

India and China also looked less vulnerable as they had learned the dangers of excessively liberalising their capital markets from the Asian crisis, he said.
http://www.asiaone.com/Business/News...918-88628.html

Jumat, 26/09/2008 14:59 WIB
Rancangan UU Jaring Pengaman Sektor Keuangan (RUU-JPSK) Tiru Gaya AS


Jakarta - Rancangan UU Jaring Pengaman Sektor Keuangan (RUU-JPSK) yang sedang disusun pemerintah akan meniru gaya Amerika Serikat. Dana talangan akan diberikan, namun dengan adanya penyelidikan terlebih dahulu.

Hal tersebut disampaikan Menneg PPN/Kepala Bappenas Paskah Suzetta di Gedung Depkeu, Jalan Lapangan Banteng, Jakarta, Jumat (26/9/2008).

Paskah menjelaskan, RUU ini kemungkinan besar akan mundur penyelesaiannya mengingat akan ada perubahan anggota Dewan.

"Kemungkinan anggota DPR barulah. Sementara ini ada perjanjian tapi itu harus diperbaiki dengan meniru AS bahwa mesti ada penyelidikan dulu supaya nanti tidak ada kepentingan-kepentingan," katanya.

Lebih lanjut Paskah menjelaskan, protokol yang mengatur otoritas fiskal dan moneter apabila krisis sektor keuangan terjadi, nampaknya sudah cukup dibutuhkan oleh Indonesia. Apalagi saat ini krisis yang terjadi di AS sudah menjalar dampaknya kepada sektor keuangan secara global mulai besar.

Ia mengatakan, pemerintah bersama dengan Bank Indonesia (BI) saat ini sedang menggodok secara serius mengenai RUU JPSK. RUU itu akan mengatur kelengkapan-kelengkapan yang dibutuhkan apabila krisis terjadi, dengan juga melihat pengalaman krisis 1998 dengan adanya BLBI (Bantuan Likuiditas Bank Indonesia).

"Contoh AS sekarang disamping ada upaya government untuk bailout terhadap sektor private yang terpuruk tapi juga diikuti penyelidikan sebelum bailout dilakukan. FBI-nya sekarang bergerak, bedanya dengan kasus kita 1998 itu sama sekali tidak ada penyelidikan dulu atas kasus-kasusnya, sehingga BLBI nya jadi krusial," tuturnya

Paskah mengatakan meskipun UU JPSK ini diperkirakan akan lambat penyelesaiannya, namun saat ini BI dan pemerintah sudah membuat semacam Mou mengenai penanganan krisis. Diakui Paskah Mou ini memang agak lemah kedudukannya, namun bisa jadi alternatif.

"Untuk melibatkan semua pihak memang itu ada kelemahan. Tapi itu harus dicantumkan dalam UU dan di Mou itu salah satunya diperbaiki yakni dengan melibatkan aparatur hukum," ujarnya.
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/200...k-tiru-gaya-as





source: http://www.assumption.edu/users/McCl...lassSched.html


Siklus Ekonomi dan Depressi Ekonomi Dunia




Grafis diatas, intinya menunjukkan bahwa saat terjadi depressi ekonomi, maka kegiatan produksi menurun drastis. Pabrik yang tutup akibat krisis itu, berakibat banyak orang di PHK sehingga banyak pengangguran dimana-mana. Selanjutnya, otomatis menurunkan pendapatan dan upah semua orang sehingga kemiskinan meledak dimana-mana. Selanjutnya, efek itu menimbulkan gejolak sosial dan politik serta kejahatan yang tinggi. Depressi dunia 1930-an dulu, dimulai dengan kolapsnya bursa saham di AS dimana harga saham tak bedanya dengan kertas toilet. Apakah gejala 2008 di Wall Street akan seperti itu? Mudah-mudahan jangan terjadilah. Efeknya bisa lebih mengerikan daripada KRISMON 1997/1998 yang dulu kita alami

This graph from Bradford DeLong's Slouching Toward Utopia illustrates the depth and persistence of the Great Depression as well as the fact that it was far more severe and long-lasting in some countries. In Japan, to cite the most obvious case, the economic downturn of 1929 was relatively mild and quickly reversed itself. By 1932, as the U.S. was entering the depths of a severe economic crisis, with overall economic activity at about 70% of 1929 levels, Japan had fully recovered. By 1940 the U.S. had just barely reached 1929 levels; Japanese production was at 160% of 1929. The next most successful nation in dealing with the Depression was Nazi Germany. The initial downturn was about as great as in the U.S. Once Hitler took over, however, Germany began a strong and steady recovery reaching 1929 levels by 1935. By the start of WWII in 1939 the German economy was at 130% of its 1929 levels. Great Britain also weathered the Depression significantly better than the U.S., although its recovery was slower than Germany's. France did less well than Britain. Its economy plummeted further, although not so low as the U.S. France, like the U.S., found itself mired in the Depression, barely able to reach 1929 levels by the time Germany invaded in 1940. Fascist Italy fared substantially better than France, somewhat better than Britain, but not nearly so well as Germany or Japan.

The Great Crash

The U.S. stock market boomed in the 1920s. Prices reached levels, measured as a multiple of corporate dividends or corporate earnings, that made no sense in terms of traditional patterns and rules of thumb for valuation. A range of evidence suggests that at the market peak in September 1929 something like forty percent of stock market values were pure air: prices above fundamental values for no reason other than that a wide cross-section of investors thought that the stock market would go up because it had gone up.

By 1928 and 1929 the Federal Reserve was worried about the high level of the stock market. It feared that the "bubble" component of stock prices might burst suddenly. When it did burst, pieces of the financial system might be suddenly revealed to be insolvent, the network of financial intermediation might well be damaged, investment might fall, and recession might result. It seemed better to the Federal Reserve in 1928 and 1929 to try to "cool off" the market by making borrowing money for stock speculation difficult and costly by raising interest rates. They accepted the risk that the increase in interest rates might bring on the recession that they hoped could be avoided if the market could be "cooled off": all policy options seemed to have possible unfavorable consequences.

In later years some, Friedrich Hayek for one, were to claim that the Federal Reserve had created the stock market boom, the subsequent crash, and the Great Depression through "easy money"policies.
http://econ161.berkeley.edu/TCEH/Slouch_Crash14.html
http://www.assumption.edu/users/McCl...sionIntro.html


USA 2008: The Great Depression

Food stamps are the symbol of poverty in the US. In the era of the credit crunch, a record 28 million Americans are now relying on them to survive – a sure sign the world's richest country faces economic crisis

By David Usborne in New York
Tuesday, 1 April 2008

We knew things were bad on Wall Street, but on Main Street it may be worse. Startling official statistics show that as a new economic recession stalks the United States, a record number of Americans will shortly be depending on food stamps just to feed themselves and their families.

Dismal projections by the Congressional Budget Office in Washington suggest that in the fiscal year starting in October, 28 million people in the US will be using government food stamps to buy essential groceries, the highest level since the food assistance programme was introduced in the 1960s.

The increase – from 26.5 million in 2007 – is due partly to recent efforts to increase public awareness of the programme and also a switch from paper coupons to electronic debit cards. But above all it is the pressures being exerted on ordinary Americans by an economy that is suddenly beset by troubles. Housing foreclosures, accelerating jobs losses and fast-rising prices all add to the squeeze.

Emblematic of the downturn until now has been the parades of houses seized in foreclosure all across the country, and myriad families separated from their homes. But now the crisis is starting to hit the country in its gut. Getting food on the table is a challenge many Americans are finding harder to meet. As a barometer of the country's economic health, food stamp usage may not be perfect, but can certainly tell a story.

Michigan has been in its own mini-recession for years as its collapsing industrial base, particularly in the car industry, has cast more and more out of work. Now, one in eight residents of the state is on food stamps, double the level in 2000. "We have seen a dramatic increase in recent years, but we have also seen it climbing more in recent months," Maureen Sorbet, a spokeswoman for Michigan's programme, said. "It's been increasing steadily. Without the programme, some families and kids would be going without."

But the trend is not restricted to the rust-belt regions. Forty states are reporting increases in applications for the stamps, actually electronic cards that are filled automatically once a month by the government and are swiped by shoppers at the till, in the 12 months from December 2006. At least six states, including Florida, Arizona and Maryland, have had a 10 per cent increase in the past year.

In Rhode Island, the segment of the population on food stamps has risen by 18 per cent in two years. The food programme started 40 years ago when hunger was still a daily fact of life for many Americans. The recent switch from paper coupons to the plastic card system has helped remove some of the stigma associated with the food stamp programme. The card can be swiped as easily as a bank debit card. To qualify for the cards, Americans do not have to be exactly on the breadline. The programme is available to people whose earnings are just above the official poverty line. For Hubert Liepnieks, the card is a lifeline he could never afford to lose. Just out of prison, he sleeps in overnight shelters in Manhattan and uses the card at a Morgan Williams supermarket on East 23rd Street. Yesterday, he and his fiancée, Christine Schultz, who is in a wheelchair, shared one banana and a cup of coffee bought with the 82 cents left on it.

"They should be refilling it in the next three or four days," Liepnieks says. At times, he admits, he and friends bargain with owners of the smaller grocery shops to trade the value of their cards for cash, although it is illegal. "It can be done. I get $7 back on $10."

Richard Enright, the manager at this Morgan Williams, says the numbers of customers on food stamps has been steady but he expects that to rise soon. "In this location, it's still mostly old people and people who have retired from city jobs on stamps," he says. Food stamp money was designed to supplement what people could buy rather than covering all the costs of a family's groceries. But the problem now, Mr Enright says, is that soaring prices are squeezing the value of the benefits.

"Last St Patrick's Day, we were selling Irish soda bread for $1.99. This year it was $2.99. Prices are just spiralling up, because of the cost of gas trucking the food into the city and because of commodity prices. People complain, but I tell them it's not my fault everything is more expensive."

The US Department of Agriculture says the cost of feeding a low-income family of four has risen 6 per cent in 12 months. "The amount of food stamps per household hasn't gone up with the food costs," says Dayna Ballantyne, who runs a food bank in Des Moines, Iowa. "Our clients are finding they aren't able to purchase food like they used to."

And the next monthly job numbers, to be released this Friday, are likely to show 50,000 more jobs were lost nationwide in March, and the unemployment rate is up to perhaps 5 per cent.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...on-803095.html

Asset Managers: Buy Gold, Commodities
BY TRANG HO

INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 9/25/2008

Even as lawmakers work out details of a tentative agreement to save the country — if not the world — from financial collapse, uncertainty looms in the market. Everybody is wondering where to put their money.

An informal survey of asset managers specializing in ETFs found that most recommend taking defensive positions by buying hard assets such as gold and commodities.

"Gold is the ultimate storehouse of value," said Louis Robin, president of DAAT Asset Management, which oversees $30 million in assets. "If the government is going to issue new Treasuries, there's going to be a lot more dollars out there, so there's going to be an inflationary environment."

As inflation rises, necessities such as food and energy will get more expensive. But industrial commodities like base metals will underperform in a recession, Robin says. He currently holds three ETFs: PowerShares DB Gold Double Long, (DGL) which leverages a position in the precious metal; PowerShares DB Agriculture, (DBA) which buys futures contracts on corn, wheat, soybeans and sugar; and ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Treasury, (TBT) which gives twice the inverse of the return of the Lehman Bros. 20+ Year U.S. Treasury index. He's betting that Treasury prices will drop.

"Ultimately, the bailout package is going to create a lot of new Treasury debt in the market," Robin said. "The yield curve is going to steepen; short rates will stay low, but long rates will start to rise."

Double Gold Long has dropped 22.9% since its March inception, about the same time gold peaked at $1,011 an ounce. DB Agriculture has fallen 24% from its high and has slipped below both its 10- and 40-week moving averages. UltraShort Lehman 20+ has dropped 8.26% since its May 1 inception.

Robin says he's generated a 9.92% gain for the year as of Sept. 24 vs. -17.4% for the S&P 500. Over the past three years, he's up 86% cumulatively, net of his 2.25% annual fee. His performance ranks in the 97th percentile of money managers, according to Theta Investment Research.

Going For Gold, Energy

Michael Fabian, director of client services at Fabian Wealth Strategies, recommends buying Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) and Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) as proxies for gold and oil.

Gold Miners holds 27 companies. Its exposure to Canada amounts to 63% of the index, the U.S. 14%, South Africa 14%, the U.K. 5.6% and Peru 4%. The ETF is 35% below its March high but has rallied 33% from its new low from two weeks ago.

Energy Select Sector holds 42 oil companies, led by Exxon Mobil, (XOM) at a 17.7% weighting. It has corrected 23% from its May high but bounced 14% from its 52-week low.

"We've seen a major sell-off in commodities, and they put in a decent bottom over the past few weeks," said Fabian, whose firm uses ETFs to manage more than $100 million in assets. "We'll take advantage of some upside in that, but just as a trade. Nothing is long-term in this market."

Just the opposite from Robin, Fabian's firm is long on Treasuries and has put client money in iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond, (TLT) currently yielding 4.3%.

"The government doesn't have anything else to do other than a rate cut, so we're playing very defensively," Fabian said.

But the dollar and U.S. equities are the last place investors should want to be for any length of time, according to Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital and the author of "Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse."

Schiff argues that the bailout and the resulting flood of debt will worsen the U.S. economy and deplete the dollar's value by 70% to 90%. He recommends buying gold, silver and foreign companies that don't do business with the U.S.

"This is the Titanic, and we're going down," Schiff said. "The government doesn't solve problems. The government doesn't stop losses; they just shift the losses."

George Luciani, president and founder of Capital Planning Advisory Group, sees a weaker greenback as a boon to international markets. He recommends iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and MSCI EAFE Index. (EFA)

EEM, 33% off its 52-week high, holds 335 stocks from Brazil, China, Korea, Russia and 18 other developing countries. EFA, 30% off its high, covers more than 800 stocks from 20 developed countries in Europe and Asia.

"We believe the market has bottomed (at least temporarily); thus it's poised for a rally that could last all or part of the fourth quarter 2008," said Luciani, who has $200 million in assets under management.
http://www.investors.com/editorial/I...issue=20080925



Don't Buy the US Dollar Head Fake
Currencies / US Dollar

By: John_Browne

This week, we were treated to strong statements by both Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke about the desirability of a “strong dollar”, and the intention of policy makers to pursue strategies that will enhance its value. To the relief of many, the dollar responded to the moral support and managed a mild rally. The move is inconsequential. The harsh realities have not changed in the slightest, and the dollar is set to continue its overall decline.

Although some investors respond to such jawboning, the more sophisticated international players, who in large part determine the foreign exchange market, do not. Why the bearish sentiment despite the bullish talk from Washington?


First, the political situation is that both Paulson and Bernanke were handed a poisoned chalice by their predecessors. By consuming more than we have produced for decades, Americans are now confronting the reality of diminished living standards. These inevitable declines have been masked by a series of massive liquidity injections by former Fed Chairman Greenspan. This was done to avoid the political cost of the natural corrective medicine of recession. It fueled both the dot.com and the real estate booms. The current liquidity injections are now fueling inflation in food and energy.

The problem for policy makers is that large portions of the electorate are starting to realize that a weak dollar is not simply a problem for those who vacation in Paris. People innately understand that a falling dollar is adding to the cost of living. So there are very strong political reasons for the Fed and the Treasury to talk tough on the dollar. In his Congressional testimony, Bernanke noted that the strength of the dollar is “a top priority”. Notably, he did not say that it was “the” top priority.

The political reality of the continued erosion of American wealth, and the reluctance of officials to allow the public to fully comprehend the extent of the problem, has tied their hands and feet. However, their mouths still have the ability to move freely.

While inflation inflicts greater economic damage over the long term, recession causes more “political” damage over the short term. In an election year, it may come as no surprise that the short term problems will attract the lion's share of attention. However, the rest of the world is not nearly as concerned with these political points, and instead favors combating inflation over recession.

Doubtless, Bernanke and Paulson see the acute danger of raising rates to combat inflation and to defend the U.S. dollar. The present recession is based on a housing collapse of gigantic proportions and could all too easily be pushed into a depression by an interest rate hike. With this terrifying prospect in view, it is little wonder that Bernanke and Paulson are keener to avoid depression.

Therefore, like a tackler in American Football or in Rugby, it pays not to look at what an opponent ‘says' with his eyes or arms or mouth, but at what he ‘does', with his feet! By ignoring the head fakes, and concentrating solely on the fundamentals, it's easy to see that the Fed is pursuing a policy of inflation and dollar debasement. So, expect continued soft to neutral action on interest rates, accompanied by further overall weakness in the U.S. dollar.

With such a stance likely to be in place well into 2009, international faith in the U.S. dollar may fall to such depths that the special “reserve” status it enjoys may be challenged by the Euro. This possibility would move a step closer to a probability once the European Union becomes a sovereign state after January 1, 2009.

For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book “Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse.” Click here to order a copy today.

By John Browne
Euro Pacific Capital
http://www.europac.net/
Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5503.html

--------------



Gua baca laporan IMF tentang efek daripada krisis keuangan AS terhadap dunia, ternyata memang cukup gawat juga. Jadi sangat mungkin, US$ akan terdepresiasi kuat dalam bulan-bulan ke depan ini. Ini laporan IMF dimaksud:

IMF Report: Global Impact of US Recession

Wow. This is like the super-bowl of econ. reports. Well at least to me. These guys look under every freaking rock across the globe. Must be nice to have such time, resources and people to do this. And they get paid to do this…I only wish a think tank of this magnitude can be made to generate what I would call the REAL impact economic study report–you know, Muhammad Yunus style. Links to all the reports (pdf):

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2008
-- Report in full [5.8MB]
-- Executive summary [200KB]
-- Chapter 1: global prospects and policies [1.8MB]
-- Chapter 2: country and regional perspectives [800 KB]

25/09/2008 09:30
Tinggalkan Bursa Sebelum ‘Meledak’!

Waspadalah, krisis 1998 bisa terulang! Mungkin para pembaca agak heran dengan kalimat di atas tadi, yang mana kalimat ini saya tulis setelah beberapa lama saya tidak menulis di kolom ini.

Pertama-tama, tulisan ini murni adalah pendapat pribadi saya yang tidak mencerminkan pendapat institusi tempat saya bekerja atau institusi manapun. Saya juga menyadari bahwa topik ini sangatlah debatable.

Tapi saya menulis ini hanya agar seluruh pembaca merasakan kekhawatiran saya dan bersiap menghadapi bila hal-hal terburuk.

Alasan saya menulis dengan topik ini didasari dengan beberapa pertimbangan, Pertama, saat ini yang mengalami krisis adalah AS, kiblat ekonomi dunia(setidaknya dalam beberapa dekade terakhir). Bila pada 1998, yang sakit adalah Asia, Indonesia mengalami dampak yang begitu signifikan, apalagi saat ini.

Di salah satu stasiun televisi asing pagi ini, saya lihat Presiden AS berbicara kepada publik unutuk menekan Kongres agar segera menyetujui rencana mega penyelamatan sektor finansial AS sebesar US$700 miliar.

Yang mengkhawatirkan adalah dalam pidato ini, seorang Presiden yang harusnya menenangkan publik malah semakin membuat tidur masyarakatnya tidak nyaman, karena Pak Presiden ini berpidato dengan wajah pucat dan body language agak panik disertai dengan tenggorokan yang tercekat beberapa kali selama pidato, yang mengindikasikan bahwa ada sesuatu yang tidak beres di AS.

Kedua, seperti yang telah saya sebutkan dulu di tulisan saya yang mempertanyakan kebijakan BI yang terus-menerus melancarkan kenaikan BI Rate, saat ini salah satu dampaknya mulai terlihat.

Bank-bank mulai panik untuk mengatasi kesulitan likuiditas dan berlomba-lomba untuk menaikkan suku bunga depositonya. Mungkin saat ini tawa para deposan terdengar menggelegar, tapi satu hal yang harus kita sadari bersama sebagai sebuah bangsa adalah kenaikan suku bunga deposito ini bisa mematikan, ibarat sebuah pedang bermata dua yang harus dimanajemen dengan bijaksana.

Bila suku bunga deposito naik, otomatis suku bunga kredit perbankan juga harus naik, akibat selanjutnya kemungkinan non performing loan atau kredit tidak tertagih semakin besar kemungkinan terjadi, bank tentu ‘terpaksa’ melakukan kenaikan suku bunga kredit karena tidak ingin net profit marginnya tergerus sebagaimana diamanatkan oleh para pemegang sahamnya.

Pak Boed saja sampai harus memanggil para petinggi bank untuk menetapkan batas atas dari suku bunga deposito mereka, agar tidak terjadi saling memakan di antara bank.

Karena bank besar yang tidak kesulitan likuiditas akan dengan ringan menaikkan suku bunga deposito, yang mana akan menarik para deposan di bank kecil yang ngos-ngosan bila harus menaikkan suku bunga depositonya, untuk beralih karena dalam dunia finansial, kesetiaan hanya setipis selembar uang kertas.

Bila NPL meningkat, ujung-ujungnya banyak apartemen dan rumah yang kreditnya macet, banyak kendaraan yang ditarik paksa dan dunia usaha semakin sulit mendapatkan sumber pendanaan murah, bank-bank likuidasi, masih ingat dengan memori ini?

Betul! 1998, itu dia poin saya sejak hari pertama saya bingung dengan langkah ‘penyelamatan’ BI waktu itu dengan menaikkan terus BI Rate, maka saran saya khususnya bagi para investor pasar modal adalah lebih aman untuk memegang dana cash daripada memegang saham apalagi saham perbankan, dan seperti yang saya tulis dulu, saat ini bukan waktunya bagi anda untuk act like Warren Buffett, saat ini berpikir dan bereaksilah di pasar seperti George Soros.

Saran ini saya tulis karena sebagai sesama bangsa Indonesia, dalam skup kecil dan di tengah keterbatasan saya, saya hanya ingin berbagi kekhawatiran dengan anda semua, saudara-saudara yang saya sayangi agar bisa mulai menyadari bahwa ada suatu ‘***’ yang bisa meledak, saya tentu tidak berharap bahwa prediksi saya menjadi kenyataan tetapi seperti jargon sebuah acara.
Irwan Buniardi, [email protected]
http://www.inilah.com/berita/citizen...eledak’/

WaMu is largest U.S. bank failure
By Elinor Comlay and Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters), Thu Sep 25, 2008 11:32pm EDT - Washington Mutual Inc was closed by the U.S. government in by far the largest failure of a U.S. bank, and its banking assets were sold to JPMorgan Chase & Co for $1.9 billion.

Thursday's seizure and sale is the latest historic step in U.S. government attempts to clean up a banking industry littered with toxic mortgage debt. Negotiations over a $700 billion bailout of the entire financial system stalled in Washington on Thursday.

Washington Mutual, the largest U.S. savings and loan, has been one of the lenders hardest hit by the nation's housing bust and credit crisis, and had already suffered from soaring mortgage losses.

Washington Mutual was shut by the federal Office of Thrift Supervision, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp was named receiver. This followed $16.7 billion of deposit outflows at the Seattle-based thrift since Sept 15, the OTS said.

"With insufficient liquidity to meet its obligations, WaMu was in an unsafe and unsound condition to transact business," the OTS said.

Customers should expect business as usual on Friday, and all depositors are fully protected, the FDIC said.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said the bailout happened on Thursday night because of media leaks, and to calm customers. Usually, the FDIC takes control of failed institutions on Friday nights, giving it the weekend to go through the books and enable them to reopen smoothly the following Monday.

Washington Mutual has about $307 billion of assets and $188 billion of deposits, regulators said. The largest previous U.S. banking failure was Continental Illinois National Bank & Trust, which had $40 billion of assets when it collapsed in 1984.

JPMorgan said the transaction means it will now have 5,410 branches in 23 U.S. states from coast to coast, as well as the largest U.S. credit card business.

It vaults JPMorgan past Bank of America Corp to become the nation's second-largest bank, with $2.04 trillion of assets, just behind Citigroup Inc. Bank of America will go to No. 1 once it completes its planned purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co.

The bailout also fulfills JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon's long-held goal of becoming a retail bank force in the western United States. It comes four months after JPMorgan acquired the failing investment bank Bear Stearns Cos at a fire-sale price through a government-financed transaction.

On a conference call, Dimon said the "risk here obviously is the asset values."

He added: "That's what created this opportunity."

JPMorgan expects to incur $1.5 billion of pre-tax costs, but realize an equal amount of annual savings, mostly by the end of 2010. It expects the transaction to add to earnings immediately, and increase earnings 70 cents per share by 2011.

It also plans to sell $8 billion of stock, and take a $31 billion write-down for the loans it bought, representing estimated future credit losses.

The FDIC said the acquisition does not cover claims of Washington Mutual equity, senior debt and subordinated debt holders. It also said the transaction will not affect its roughly $45.2 billion deposit insurance fund.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNe...48P01R20080926

Kacau

[Menara_Jakarta]

Selasa, 30/09/2008 22:20 WIB
Bush: Ekonomi AS Bisa Memburuk dari Hari ke Hari

Washington - Penolakan DPR AS atas rencana bailout senilai US$ 700 miliar untuk menyelamatkan negara tersebut dari krisis finansial, bisa memperburuk perekonomian. Menurut Presiden AS George Walker Bush, ekonomi AS bisa semakin memburuk dari hari ke hari jika tak segera diambil langkah cepat.

Sehari setelah DPR AS (House of Representatives) menolak rencana bailout US$ 700 miliar ke bank-bank yang bermasalah, Presiden Bush menyatakan bahwa ini bukanlah akhir dari seluruh proses legislatif yang disebutnya dapat penuh komplikasi dan perdebatan.

"Kenyataannya adalah bahwa kita berada dalam situasi yang genting dan konsekuensinya semakin memburuk setiap harinya jika kita tidak mengambil tindakan," ujar Bush seperti dikutip dari AFP, Selasa (30/9/2008).

Bush juga mengingatkan bahwa penderitaan ekonomi akan penuh kepahitan dan habis-habisan jika tidak ada sesuatu yang dilakukan.

Hanya 5 pekan menjelang pemilu AS, Bush membuat pendekatan secara langsung kepada rekannya di partai Republik, terutama kaum konservatif yang menolak rencana pemerintah mengintervensi pasar yang bebas.

"Negara kita tidak menghadapi pilihan antara langkah pemerintah dan mempermudah berfungsinya pasar bebas. Kita menghadapi pilihan antara langkah dan prospek riil dari kesukaran ekonomi bagi jutaan rakyat AS," tegas Bush.

Bush juga menolak tuduhan bahwa rencana penyelamatan bernilai US$ 700 miliar terlalu mahal. Menurut Bush, kejatuhan pasar yang sangat dalam pada Senin kemarin setelah penolakan dari DPR AS justru merepresentasikan kerugian hingga triliunan dolar AS.

"Untuk keamanan finansial seluruh rakyat Amerika, kongres harus mengambil langkah. Perekonomian kita tergantung pada ketegasan langkah dari pemerintah. Semakin cepat kita memecahkan masalah, semakin cepat kita kembali ke jalur pertumbuhan dan penciptaan lapangan kerja," urai Bush.

Wall Street Rebound

Sehari setelah kejatuhan terbesar dalam sejarah yakni hingga 777 poin, saham-saham di Wall Street mulai pulih. Investor kembali memiliki harapan bahwa DPR AS akan segera menyetujui langkah penyelamatan.

Pada perdagangan Selasa, indeks Dow Jones sudah menguat hingga 219,27 poin (2,12%) ke level 10.584,72. Nasdaq juga menguat 43,83 poin (2,21%0 ke level 2.027,56 dalam 15 menit awal perdagangan. Sementara S&P juga menguat 28,19 poin (2,55%) ke level 1.134,61.
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/200...i-hari-ke-hari

Bagaimana menurut Anda?

[Menara_Jakarta]

Selasa, 30/09/2008 22:20 WIB
Bush: Ekonomi AS Bisa Memburuk dari Hari ke Hari

Washington - Penolakan DPR AS atas rencana bailout senilai US$ 700 miliar untuk menyelamatkan negara tersebut dari krisis finansial, bisa memperburuk perekonomian. Menurut Presiden AS George Walker Bush, ekonomi AS bisa semakin memburuk dari hari ke hari jika tak segera diambil langkah cepat.

Sehari setelah DPR AS (House of Representatives) menolak rencana bailout US$ 700 miliar ke bank-bank yang bermasalah, Presiden Bush menyatakan bahwa ini bukanlah akhir dari seluruh proses legislatif yang disebutnya dapat penuh komplikasi dan perdebatan.

"Kenyataannya adalah bahwa kita berada dalam situasi yang genting dan konsekuensinya semakin memburuk setiap harinya jika kita tidak mengambil tindakan," ujar Bush seperti dikutip dari AFP, Selasa (30/9/2008).

Bush juga mengingatkan bahwa penderitaan ekonomi akan penuh kepahitan dan habis-habisan jika tidak ada sesuatu yang dilakukan.

Hanya 5 pekan menjelang pemilu AS, Bush membuat pendekatan secara langsung kepada rekannya di partai Republik, terutama kaum konservatif yang menolak rencana pemerintah mengintervensi pasar yang bebas.

"Negara kita tidak menghadapi pilihan antara langkah pemerintah dan mempermudah berfungsinya pasar bebas. Kita menghadapi pilihan antara langkah dan prospek riil dari kesukaran ekonomi bagi jutaan rakyat AS," tegas Bush.

Bush juga menolak tuduhan bahwa rencana penyelamatan bernilai US$ 700 miliar terlalu mahal. Menurut Bush, kejatuhan pasar yang sangat dalam pada Senin kemarin setelah penolakan dari DPR AS justru merepresentasikan kerugian hingga triliunan dolar AS.

"Untuk keamanan finansial seluruh rakyat Amerika, kongres harus mengambil langkah. Perekonomian kita tergantung pada ketegasan langkah dari pemerintah. Semakin cepat kita memecahkan masalah, semakin cepat kita kembali ke jalur pertumbuhan dan penciptaan lapangan kerja," urai Bush.

Wall Street Rebound

Sehari setelah kejatuhan terbesar dalam sejarah yakni hingga 777 poin, saham-saham di Wall Street mulai pulih. Investor kembali memiliki harapan bahwa DPR AS akan segera menyetujui langkah penyelamatan.

Pada perdagangan Selasa, indeks Dow Jones sudah menguat hingga 219,27 poin (2,12%) ke level 10.584,72. Nasdaq juga menguat 43,83 poin (2,21%0 ke level 2.027,56 dalam 15 menit awal perdagangan. Sementara S&P juga menguat 28,19 poin (2,55%) ke level 1.134,61.
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/200...i-hari-ke-hari

Bagaimana menurut Anda?

[luna_croz]

Jakarta - Pasar saham dalam negeri benar-benar mengalami pukulan hebat dengan rontoknya hampir semua saham-saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) juga mencatat penurunan paling parah se-Asia.

Pada penutupan perdagangan saham sesi Senin (6/10/2008), IHSG ambles hingga 183,768 poin atau 10,03% ke level 1.648,739.

Indeks LQ-45 anjlok 42,170 poin (11,42%) menjadi 326,970 dan Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) turun 37,058 poin (12,94%) menjadi 249,333.

Penurunan IHSG ini merupakan yang terburuk di bursa Asia. Bursa kawasan pada Senin ini rata-rata hanya turun 4-5% seperti Hang Seng turun 4,97%, Seoul turun 4,29%, Nikkei turun 4,25%, Shanghai turun 5,23%, STI Singapura turun 5,26%, Taiwan turun 4,12%.

Yang hampir menyerupai kemerosotan IHSG adalah bursa saham Rusia yang turun hingga 11,55%, dan Arab Saudi turun 9,7%.

IHSG mengalami penurunan tajam karena imbas dari krisis AS yang baru terefleksi hari ini karena pekan lalu BEI libur. Selain itu juga karena sentimen negatif pelemahan rupiah yang tidak terbendung ke level 9.575 per dolar AS dan naiknya angka inflasi September menjadi 0,97% dibanding Agustus 0,51%.

Ketua Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam LK) Fuad Rahmany mengatakan penurunan IHSG yang lebih dari 5% ini karena pasar merefleksikan penurunan yang harusnya terjadi pada saat libur lebaran.

"Karena kita kan selama hampir seminggu nggak ada trading. Jadi biasa lah market akan mendiskon awal sesi pertama ini. Tapi mereka melakukan adjusment karena market itu kan sangat rasional. Ini karena kita sudah lima hari, yang lain kan sudah turun-turun," jelasnya.

Perdagangan saham hari ini mencatat transaksi sebanyak 65.212 kali, dengan volume 4,578 miliar unit saham, senilai Rp 4,588 triliun. Sebanyak 10 saham naik, 209 saham turun dan 9 saham stagnan.

Saham-saham yang anjlok harganya antara lain, Bumi Resources (BUMI) turun Rp 1.025 menjadi Rp 2.175, Bank Mandiri (BMRI) turun Rp 150 menjadi Rp 2.500, Aneka Tambang (ANTM) turun Rp 400 menjadi Rp 1.060, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) turun Rp 450 menjadi Rp 4.950, Timah (TINS) turun Rp 520 menjadi Rp 1.140, Telkom (TLKM) turun Rp 50 menjadi Rp 7.100.

Sedangkan saham yang naik harganya antara lain Bank Internasional Indonesia (BNII) naik Rp 125 menjadi Rp 435.

"Kelihatannya penurunan IHSG masih digerakkan isu seputar bailout," ujar analis PT Sarijaya Securities, Trisin Ismail saat dihubungi detikFinance, Senin (6/10/2008).

Menurut Trisin, pasar kurang merespons disetujuinya rencana bailout US$ 700 miliar lantaran banyak pelaku pasar menilai bahwa kucuran dana tersebut bukan suatu solusi jangka panjang terhadap krisis finansial belakangan ini.

Pendapat Trisin sekaligus menyanggah isu yang mengatakan bahwa pelaku pasar masih menunggu kucuran dana US$ 700 miliar tersebut benar-benar terlaksana baru kondisi pasar modal akan kembali normal.

"Kalau kita lihat sebenarnya dengan ditandatanganinya bailout, itu sudah merupakan kepastian bahwa dana tersebut pasti akan dikucurkan. Jadi seharusnya memberikan sentimen positif ke pasar. Artinya pelaku pasar melihat pada isu lain untuk masuk ke pasar," jelas Trisin.

Trisin mengungkapkan, pelaku pasar menilai kucuran US$ 700 miliar tersebut hanya akan memberikan solusi bagi bankir-bankir AS saja, bukan solusi bagi masalah kredit yang nyata di masyarakat.

"Sepertinya untuk di Indonesia, pelaku pasar masih menunggu pengumuman inflasi untuk masuk ke pasar, serta kebijakan pemerintah ke depan mengenai ekonomi makro dan sektor riil," jelas Trisin.

Berikut analisis eTrading Securities:

Setelah seminggu libur lebaran, indeks hari ini ditutup terjun -10% (penurunan terbesar dalam sejarah) ke level 1.648,739 (terendah sejak 2007). Bursa Indonesia mengalami penurunan terbesar dalam indeks regional, rata-rata indeks regional melemah 4-5%.

Anjloknya IHSG ini disebabkan imbas kredit perumahan di US yang dikhawatirkan akan memperlambat pertumbuhan ekonomi global (walaupun Bush telah menandatangani proposal bail out sebesar $700 milliar) dan nilai rupiah yang terus terdepresiasi terhadap dolar bahkan sempat menembus level $9500. Sejak pembukaan (terdapat gap yang cukup dalam) hingga penutupan indeks selalu berada di area negatif.

Walaupun indeks anjlok sampai 10% pada sesi kedua, namun trading tetap diteruskan. Pada perdagangan hari ini, semua sektor ditutup melemah, penurunan terbesar dialami mining (-22,25%)dan agri (-19,41%). Hanya 10 saham yang tercatat menguat hari ini.

BUMI sebagai salah satu saham yang paling likuid ditutup melemah 32,03% (auto rejection) ke level Rp2.175 (terndah tahun ini). BNII merupakan best performed stock hari ini (+40,32%) ke Rp435 setelah Maybank akhirnya menyelesaikan aksi akuisisinya atas BNII di harga Rp433.

http://www.detikfinance.com/read/200...-parah-se-asia

Kata sapa kita tidak terpengaruh?
kita terpengaruh paling parah dari se-ASIA!

yg berasa ini adalah kaum elit yg maen pasar modal.
dan perusahaan asuransi yg sudah mulai kebingungan akan kemana mereka memutar duit lagi..apabila kabar2 ini terdengar ke rakyat2 dan pemegang polis asuransi.. maka kasus AIG akan terjadi sama persis di indonesia.
belum lagi PT-PT Tbk. yang akan menghadapi ancaman yang sama.
saham menurun.. pemegang saham buru2 menarik duit.. akhirnya PT kekurangan modal dan dinyatakan bankrupt.. so PHK akan dimana2..

bahkan ga perlu liat ihsg juga uda tau..
amrik krisis tapi malah dollar menurun terus hingga 9500.
apanya yg tidak terpengaruh?

[Andaman_Nikobar]

wah gawat nih, semoga gak krismon lagi

[Andaman_Nikobar]

Rabu, 08/10/2008 11:01 WIB
IHSG Terjelek Sedunia
Irna Gustia - detikFinance

Jakarta - Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) terus mencatat penurunan tertajam di banding bursa-bursa lain di dunia. Sementara rupiah relatif terjaga di posisi 9.596 per dolar AS atau turun 36 poin.

Pada perdagangan saham pukul 10.50 JATS, Rabu (8/10/2008) IHSG anjlok hingga 148,988 poin atau 9,2 persen ke posisi 1.470,733. Posisi IHSG ini terendah sejak September 2006.

IHSG juga mencatat penurunan terburuk dibanding bursa-bursa dunia lain yang hanya turun 4-5%.

Indeks Hang Seng turun 5,44%, Seoul turun 3,54%, KOSPI turun 3,42%, Nikkei turun 4,54%, STI Singapura turun 3,84% dan Taiwan turun 4,34%.

Saham di Australia turun 4,04% dan dibelahan Eropa FTSE pada 7 Oktober malah rebound 0,35%, Xetra Dax turun 1,12%.

Sementara saham-saham di Eropa masih belum buka, sedangkan Dow Jones pada penutupan 7 Oktober 2008 hanya turun 5,11%. Arab Saudi turun 7% pada 7 Oktober 2008.

Kekacauan yang terjadi di Bursa Efek Indonesia ini karena aksi jual investor asing yang terus berlanjut. Investor asing berburu likuiditas karena di negara asalnya sedang kekeringan likuiditas.

Adanya pernyataan dari JP Morgan Chase untuk menghindari surat utang di Indonesia makin membuat investor menjauhi IHSG.

Sementara kasus gagal bayar Danatama dan disuspensinya 6 saham kelompok Bakrie makin menambah rentetan sentimen negatif di pasar.

Perdagangan saham sesi satu ini juga berlangsung tipis dengan transaksi hanya senilai Rp 863 miliar. Hanya 5 saham naik, 168 saham turun dan 7 saham stagnan.

Saham-saham yang jeblok harganya antara lain, Telkom (TLKM) turun Rp 600 menjadi Rp 6.5550, Indosat (ISAT) turun Rp 1.200 menjadi Rp 3.950, Antam (ANTM) turun Rp 90 menjadi Rp 1.070 dan Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA) turun Rp 1.700 menjadi Rp 5.300.(ir/ddn)

http://www.detikfinance.com/read/200...rjelek-sedunia

Parahhh

[mizuniverse]

Mau ralat dikit nih berita yang diatas

Egypt
INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANGE TIME

EGYPT HERMES INDEX -15.79% 10/08
CASE 30 INDEX -16.47% 10/08

source : Bloomberg

-----------------------------

Berita dari DETIK memang hiperbola ya, gak akurat lagi.

[mizuniverse]

Gov't officials: Indonesian economy can absorb impact of U.S. bailout failure
:banana::banana:

JAKARTA, Oct. 3 (Xinhua) -- The Indonesian officials have said the possible failure of the U.S. bailout bill may not pose a threat to Indonesia's economic fundamentals, Antara news agency quoted Indonesia government officials as reporting on Friday.

Government officials here have said that strong banking performance, robust commodity exports and less developed capital market products are key reasons for optimism in keeping the country's economic pillars sturdier than in the days of the late 1997 Asian financial crisis.

Indonesian vice president Jusuf Kalla said on Wednesday that Indonesia could well absorb the impact of the U.S. woes on the back of strong exports of commodities in high global demand, regardless of any shakeup in the global economy.

"Regardless of the degree of the crisis in the U.S., the world still needs oil, coal, textiles and palm oil," Kalla was quoted as saying by Antara news agency.

Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati also echoed Kalla's optimism, saying the country's banking sector was in a healthier state than it was prior to the Asian financial crisis.

"Economic growth, as well as monetary and banking stability are relatively stronger since our recovery (from the crisis)," she said.

Key indicators in Indonesian domestic banking sector showed, as of the first half of this year, accumulated gross nonperforming loans (NPL) of domestic banks stood at 4.1 percent, or around 5.28billion U.S. dollars, compared to 4.6 percent at the end of last year.

The central bank requires an NPL for banks of below 5 percent.

The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of local banks stands at 16.4 percent as of June, much higher than the minimum limit of 8 percent. CAR is the capacity of a bank in terms of meeting liabilities and risks, such as credit and operational risks.

Raden Pardede, chairman of the Indonesian Financial System Stability Forum, said the financial turmoil would not extend far into the Indonesian financial system because of the relative unavailability of complicated securities products in Indonesia.

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/9...3/6509313.html

SBY: Mimpi Buruk Krisis 1998 Takkan Terjadi



Jakarta - Krisis keuangan di AS sudah pasti akan membawa dampak bagi Indonesia, tapi tidak sampai menyeret Indonesia kembali ke krisis 1997-1998 lalu.

Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono optimistis bangsa Indonesia dapat melalui kondisi sulit dan tidak perlu mengoreksi target pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional.

Demikian salah satu arahannya dalam sesi penutup sidang kabinet di Kantor Setneg, Jalan Veteran, Jakarta.

Sejumlah pengusaha nasional dan pimpinan BUMN mengikuti rapat yang berlangsung empat jam sejak dimulai pukul 14.00 WIB, Senin (6/10/2008).

"Dengan kebijakan tepat dan upaya maksimal, mari pertahankan pertumbuhan 6%. Saya tahu banyak negara yang koreksi pertumbuhannya jadi lebih rendah, tapi mari kita pertahankan pertumbuhan kita 6%. Mari kita manfaatkan perekonomian domestik," tegas SBY.

Presiden menegaskan, berkat kerja keras semua pihak selama bertahun-tahun maka fundamental ekonomi, politik dan sosial dalam negeri saat ini jauh lebih baik dibanding 10 tahun lalu.

Karenanya semua pihak harus optimis dan rasional mengambil langkah sambil terus menjaga kepercayaan masyarakat. "Bukan berarti kondisi akan aman-aman saja, tapi Insya Allah nightmare 98 tidak akan terjadi," imbuhnya.

Penggunaan APBN 2009 harus lebih dioptimalkan untuk memacu pertumbuhan dan membangun jaring pengaman sosial. Misalnya untuk membangun sarana infrastruktur, penanggulangan kemiskinan dan stimulasi pertumbuhan lainnya dengan alokasi penggunaan yang cukup.

Kepada para pelaku usaha, presiden mewanti agar tetap bergerak meski dapat dimaklumi bila ekspansi berkurang. Hal ini demi menjaga pemasukan negara dari sektor pajak dan mencegah bertambahnya jumlah pengangguran akibat terjadinya PHK massal.

Untuk itu Bank Indonesia dan perbankan dimintanya mengembangkan kebijakan agar kredit tersedia dan menjamin likuiditas. Pada saat bersamaan pihak swasta harus terus mempertahankan kinerja, tetap mencari peluang dan berbagi peran dengan pemerintah dalam menanggulangi situasi sulit.

"Cerdas tangkap peluang dagang dan kerja sama ekonomi dengan negara lain. Meski pertumbuhan ekonomi Asia turun dari 11% ke 9%, tapi saya pikir tetap oke. Pasar Eropa dan AS akan lebih tertutup terhadap ekspor, maka produk kita harus kompetitif. Awasi dumping, saya dapat info barang yang mau masuk AS belok ke Indonesia. Bea cukai dan imigrasi harus waspada agar tidak tembus dan lumpuhkan industri nasional," sambung SBY.

Pada jajaran pemerintah, presiden menyerukan lagi efisiensi dalam pengadaan angggaran dan utamakan produk dalam negeri. Demi menghemat anggaran, impor barang mewah haris dikurangi dan pada saat bersamaan menggalakkan kembali kampanye penggunaan buatan dalam negeri dengan kebijakan insentif dan disinsentif.

Mereka juga diminta melakukan konsultasi insentif dengan berbagai kalangan usaha untuk mencari jalan keluar terbaik mengatasi krisis. Berkomunikasi secara jujur dan tepat tentang masalah yang terjadi, tapi tetap optimis dan tidak menimbulkan kepanikan.

"Jangan angin surga, 'semua baik-baik saja, don’t worry'. Cegah pernyataan yang tidak perlu dan bukan menjadi kewenangannya," tandas SBY.

Terkait tahun politik dan pemilu, presiden mengingatkan para politisi untuk tidak lagi melakukan praktek politik partisan. Sebaliknya harus lebih kompromis demi kebaikan bersama dan masa depan bangsa secara keseluruhan, bukan sekedar kepentingan kelompok.

http://www.detikfinance.com/read/200...takkan-terjadi

Govt seeks economic equilibrium


The U.S.-triggered global credit crisis will not bring Indonesia to a financial crisis similar to that of the late 1990s, although the government will remain on high alert, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said Monday.

In a meeting with Cabinet ministers and businesspeople to discuss the impact of the global crisis on Indonesia, Yudhoyono said the country’s economy was now in better shape than it was in the 1997-1998 period.

"The financial crisis we had ten years ago will not happen again because the conditions were much more different back then. We have managed to improve on the factors that caused the crisis. I'm not saying that our condition is secure; we should always be alert," he said.

In 1998, the economy contracted by over 13 percent.

"We should use this moment to maintain our economic growth at 6 percent and safeguard our country from this global crisis."

The statement came as the local stock index plunged by more than 10 percent, the biggest drop since the 2002 Bali bombings, followed by the rupiah depreciating against the U.S. dollar.

The rupiah fell 1.5 percent on Monday to Rp 9,575, as stock market investors sold their local holdings and converted gains to the dollar. The index dropped 10.03 percent to close at 1,648.74 points.

However, acting Coordinating Minister for the Economy Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the local market should not overreact in times of crisis.

"The government will continue to maintain the equilibrium of all financial indicators to be as rational and consistent as possible," she said.

She added the government would continue to maintain both economic growth and the inflation rate at stable levels, but with some adjustments.

"We might have to find a more rational equilibrium between the two indicators, from a combination of between 6.4 percent growth and 6 percent inflation, to higher inflation of around 7 percent with a lessening of growth to 6 percent."

The economy accelerated by 6.4 percent in the second quarter of 2008. The government foresees growth slowing to 6.2 percent this year from 6.3 percent in 2007.

To increase market liquidity, the central bank will, among other measures, simplify the minimum reserve requirement scheme, Bank Indonesia governor Boediono said.

Other strategies will be discussed by the central bank Tuesday.

On exports, Trade Minister Mari Elka Pangestu remained upbeat despite the turbulence in the U.S. economy, the world's largest importer.

"We will continue to diversify our export market to Middle East countries, Russia and Central Europe, while strengthening our market in Asia," she said.

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2...uilibrium.html

Saya harap badai ini cepat lewat

[mizuniverse]

Bursa Saham Dunia Mengalami Penurunan di 2008

Jakarta, Bursa saham seluruh dunia pada periode Januari-Agustus 2008 mengalami penurunan yang bersamaan. Bursa China turun paling tajam sedangkan penurunan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) ada di posisi ke-6.

Total transaksi di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) pada 2 Januari-8 Agustus 2008 mencapai Rp 985,6 triliun dengan nilai rata-rata transaksi harian Rp 5,29 triliun. Sedangkan sepanjang tahun 2007 total transaksi harian Rp 4,15 triliun.

"Memang belakangan ini IHSG sempat turun. Kalau tahun lalu kita bicarakan indeks naik dan naik, kalau tahun ini lebih bicara indeks turun, tapi itu bukan semata-mata buruk di Indonesia saja tapi ini merupakan kinerja pasar modal seluruh dunia sedang menurun," kata Ketua Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam LK) Fuad Rahmany.

Hal itu dijelaskan Fuad dalam jumpa pers 31 tahun diaktifkannya kembali pasar modal Indonesia di gedung BEI, Jalan Sudirman, Jakarta, Senin (11/8/2008).

Dari sisi indeks saham, jika dibandingkan dengan beberapa indeks utama lainnya dari 11 indeks utama dunia, IHSG masih berada di posisi ke-6.

Urutan penurunan indeks saham itu adalah:

1. Shanghai, China turun 50,58%
2. Shenzen, China turun 49,24%
3. PSEi, Filipina turun 25,65%
4. KLCI, Malaysia turun 21,97%
5, Hangseng Indeks, Hong Kong turun 20,59%
6, IHSG turun 19,61%
7. STI Singapura turun 18,48%
8. SETI Thialand turun 18,06%
9. Taiex, Taiwan Turun 15,55%
10. Nikei 225, Jepang turun 13,98%
11. Dow Jones turun 10,04%.

Dari sisi nilai kapitalisasi pasar penurunan terbesar adalah:

1. Shanghai turun 45,81%
2. Shenzen turun 41,77%
3. Filipina turun 28,41%
4. SETI turun 26,34%
5. Bursa Malaysia turun 23,30%
6. Hong Kong Exchange turun 22,89%
7. Singapore Exchange turun 18,63%
8. BEI turun 14,23%
9. TSE turun 13,04%
10. Taiwan SE turun 5,86%
11. NYSE naik 11,61%.

Seiring penurunan indeks saham dan kapitalisasi pasar, terjadi pula penurunan price earning (PE). Namun posisi penurunan PE Indonesia dinilai masih lumayan tidak seburuk bursa lainnya. Dari 12 bursa saham, 10 bursa saham penurunannya di atas 20%-60% dan BEI berada di posisi kelima turunnya 31,58%.

PE yang terbesar penurunannya adalah Shenzen turun 62,04%, Shanghai turun 58,63%, Thailand turun 50,52%, Taiwan turun 41,08%, BEI turun 31,58%, Korea turun 27,07%, Hong Kong turun 26,03%, Bursa Malaysia turun 23,43%, Singapura turun 21,08%, Filipina turun 20,68%, New York turun 8,94% dan Tokyo turun 6,82%. (kilasberita.com/dms/dtc)

http://www.kilasberita.com/kb-financ...urunan-di-2008

Semoga cepet selesai

[sariayu]

please lah, at least take source from some reliable newspaper....

detik? blowout and imaginative news...

salah satu example, chandra ciputra kemaren sampe marah2...gara detik dan stockwatch bikin berita tentang ciputra expansion...tapi beritanya ngawur semua...gara2 wartawan detik dan stockwatch ga kelar pas gathering....

parah! bangsa kita dibodohi sama title2 yang bener2 misleading dan ga mendidik.

cheers

[luna_croz]

klo mo jelas lsng ke BEJ aja pak.
bukan cmn detik doank kok yg ngomong..
lu kurang denger berita makanya ga tau.

ato lu ga sanggup menerima kenyataan bahwa indonesia juga terimbas gara2 amrik?

bhkan hangseng dan nikkei pun terpengaruh cukup besar,,

ya jelas ciputra marah2.. wong dia pemilik perusahaan TBk.. dia cuman takut klo kabar ini terdengar dan mulai bikin panik para pemegang saham.. alhasil toh para pemegang saham akan kabur semua..
taktik lah itu.

[sariayu]

Weks memang BEI itu lagi gawat, Indonesia meamng kena badai pengaruh krisis yang cuku pbahaya, tapi jangan ambil berita dari detik lah, blowout and imaginative news... apaan tuh terjelek di dunia? Udah dibantah sama postnya mizuniverse, masi ada yang lebih buruk kek Mesir.

ciputra itu memang karena berita dari detik ngawur, itu hanya contoh dari beberapa kengawuran detik, kalo ga percaya nanti bisa tanya narasumbernya langsung.

[luna_croz]

nga semua berita ngawur lah gimana seh ente..
klo semua ngawur bisa2 diprotes semua org..

bahkan SBY ngomong 2 hari sebelom hari ini negara kita ga akan kenapa2.
toh sehari sesudahnya tepatnya kemarin BEI lsng ditutup setengah hari karena penurunan terus menerus efeknya dan ditakutkan semua org menjual semua saham..
dengan kondisi demikian bahkan aburizal bakrie pun bisa kerepotan.

swt MESIR lebih parah ya ga masalah wong tempatnya di padang gurun afrika ini..
jadi kondisinya emang harus bagusan negara kita. klo bagusan mesir ya no comment dah gw

Rupiah kita terus melemah sampe point 9700..
apa yg akan terjadi selanjutnya?

[bye-]

Wew pantesan temen sekarang lagi kebingungan.. bokapnya buka show room car.. trus dia yg pastinya kaya.. buka saham di luar negeri lumayan banyak terutama bagian" amerika.. salah satunya bank no 4 terbesar di sana..
sekarang dia mao berencana buat jual mobil di rumahnya 1 1..
BTW
Dampak ke Indonesia fatal ato nggak y..
tapi cman waktu yg isa menjawab