perhitungan chance sama seperti menjawab soal pilihan ganda

[tkgsablon]

jika gw bilang

dt punya skill bash 25% setiap atknya

itu sama aja dengan

lu menjawab soal yang sama sekali lu ngk tau jawabannya

dengan 4 pilihan jawaban dan hanya 1 jawaban yang benar

a (chance 25%)

b (chance 25%)

c (chance 25%)

d (chance 25%)


nah kalo gw bilang chance dt bash 50% setiap serangnya berarti

lu di kasih soal dengan 2 jawaban yang benar dan 2 jawaban yang salah

a)
)a dan b benar persentase 50%
b)


c)
) c dan d salah dengan presentase 50%
d)


atau

ada soal dengan 2 pilihan dan hanya 1 yang benar

a (chance 50%)

b (chance 50%)

[Asquall]

karenanya ditulis sebagai 'chance', dan ilmu yang mempelajari 'probability'...

chance itu universal di semua aspek kehidupan, walo sebenernya KAGAK ada satupun kejadian di dunia ini yang lepas bebas (yang ga mudeng tanya ama guru matematika gih^^)

[Ch41n_L19htn1n9]

sama aja deh kayaknya opt 1 dan opt 2

yang opt 2 kan cuma menyederhanakan

[Zephyr09]

sebenarnya sih.. 25% itu ga bener bener 25% beneran.. tapi ada yang namanya Pseudo Random..

[Siaunen2]

Ya...dan psd masih bener sampe sekitar chance 40%....
di atas 40% meleset mulai gede
dan paling parah vguard
kehilangan sekitar 16% dari kemampuan bloknya

[Asquall]

tapi post kek gini jauhhhhhhhhh lebih berguna daripada post2 aneh2 -.-"
GRP, karena mau berbagi pengalaman @@ gw ja kagak mikir buat nyamain chance sama jwban ujian @@ hehhe

[Zephyr09]

soalnya kan game warcraft aslinya ga ada skill yang chancenya segede itu.. dota doang yang ada chance gede gitu.. hahaha..

[tkgsablon]

tapi post kek gini jauhhhhhhhhh lebih berguna daripada post2 aneh2 -.-"
GRP, karena mau berbagi pengalaman @@ gw ja kagak mikir buat nyamain chance sama jwban ujian @@ hehhe

thx berat boss, gpl bales grp

oh ya pseudo random itu apaan yah??

[Ch41n_L19htn1n9]

pseudo random = chance tidak benar2 random

kalo misalnya crit 15% tapi ga keluar2, ntar critnya dipaksa keluar sama triggernya

[tkgsablon]

itu di dota berlaku??

kalo udah di atas 40%???

[Ch41n_L19htn1n9]

ngga tau pasti

tapi... MENURUT GW

Spoiler untuk ini menurut gw loh, jadi bisa salah :

tiap chance yang miss menambah persentase keberhasilan, tiap chance yang berhasil mengurangi persentase keberhasilan

[mcr-iero]

hmm maksudnya keluar sama trigger ?

[Zephyr09]

Critical Strike Example
Consider the case of a 20% chance to Critical Strike. If the game were truly random, then for each attack there would be a 20% chance for the unit to land a Critical Strike, regardless of how many Critical Strikes had been performed in the past. A simple implementation would therefore be to select a random integer between 1 and 100, and if the integer was less than or equal to 20, then the engine would cause that attack to be a Critical (which is the usual construct used by triggered percentage-based abilities). While this implementation would, in the long run, average out to 20% of attacks being Criticals, there is nothing preventing an infinite series of Critical Strikes or, conversely, an absence of Critical Strikes for the entire game, although the chance is rather insignificant. To prevent the ensuing complaints and balance this random game mechanic, the Warcraft III developers implemented a Pseudo Random Probability Distribution.

Instead of there being a 20% chance to Critical Strike with every attack, the first attack made actually has a 5.57% chance to Critical Strike. If that is not a Critical Strike, then the second attack has a 11.14% chance to Critical. If that is also not a Critical Strike, then the third has a 16.71% chance to Critical, and so on, adding 5.57% for each consecutive non-Critical. When a Critical Strike does occur, however, the chance for the next attack resets to 5.57%. In the long run, the number of Critical Strikes divided by the total number of attacks somewhat approximates the stated 20%, but now it is extremely difficult to have a series of Critical Strikes, and also impossible to go more than 17 attacks without a Critical, because the percentage for the 18th attack (assuming 17 previous consecutive non-Critical attacks) is 100.26%. In effect, the game causes the number of attacks between Criticals to be skewed towards 1 / 20% = 5, with a maximum limit of 17.

konstantanya

| Expected Probability P(E) || Constant (C) || Max # of Consecutive Attacks Without Modifier |
| 5% || 0.00380 || 263 |
| 10% || 0.01475 || 67 |
| 15% || 0.03221 || 31 |
| 20% || 0.05570 || 17 |
| 25% || 0.08475 || 11 |
| 30% || 0.11895 || 8 |
| 35% || 0.14628 || 6 |
| 40% || 0.18128 || 5 |
| 45% || 0.21867 || 4 |

http://forums.dota-allstars.com/inde...owtopic=245439

[tkgsablon]

hmmm oh ini alesannya

pantes aja chance 15% bisa kluar terus

ternyata ada ini

[Asquall]

constant = pertambahan percentage buat tiap attack yang kagak crit... (for 15%, for instance, is 3.22%)

ini juga berlaku untuk chance dota laennya kan???? termasuk Multi, Bashes, Juxtapose, etc.???