[POLITIK] [DEBAT] Economic Watch by Orlando Ocean

[Menara_Jakarta]

Gini deh, gua aja lg di Amerika kondisi nya gpp... ekonomi msih jalan...

Wallstreet aja yg triak2, di Amerika justru mereka kgk mau Wallstreet dpt Bailout 700bn dr negara, kalo gk merugikan rakyatnya. Nah skrg gua tanya, dampaknya apa terhadap Indonesia?

GAK ADA...

Lagian juga mngp kita perhatikan bursa? Bursa itu gk bisa dipake patokan buat pertumbuhan ekonomi... itu hanyalah tempat pertukaran stok... Jadinya kalo Wallstreet skrg ancur sih gua Ngakak aja... IHSG juga gk akan kena dampak nya ama Wallstreet... sp dr wallstreet yg invest di stok kita? Kgk ada... kl ada pasti dikid... Lehman brothers investasi ke Indonesia? Sm sekali tidak...

Jika finansial Amerika Serikat ambruk, negaranya sendiri yang ambruk, bersamaan beberapa perusahan di dunia yang mendapatkan bantuan finansial dari AS.

[luna_croz]

Gini deh, gua aja lg di Amerika kondisi nya gpp... ekonomi msih jalan...

Wallstreet aja yg triak2, di Amerika justru mereka kgk mau Wallstreet dpt Bailout 700bn dr negara, kalo gk merugikan rakyatnya. Nah skrg gua tanya, dampaknya apa terhadap Indonesia?

GAK ADA...

Lagian juga mngp kita perhatikan bursa? Bursa itu gk bisa dipake patokan buat pertumbuhan ekonomi... itu hanyalah tempat pertukaran stok... Jadinya kalo Wallstreet skrg ancur sih gua Ngakak aja... IHSG juga gk akan kena dampak nya ama Wallstreet... sp dr wallstreet yg invest di stok kita? Kgk ada... kl ada pasti dikid... Lehman brothers investasi ke Indonesia? Sm sekali tidak...

emang disana ga parah2 amat.. nyokap gw yg disitu aja juga ga pusingin malah suru gw buru2 bikin visa ke sana tetep.
lagian juga emang sengaja amrik gituin biar semua negara jadi goncang ikutin dia.
nah tapi sekarang yg buruknya bagi indo adalah org2 disini itu sangat percaya pada isu2 yg ga jelas.. tahayul dll.
denger sedikit isu lsng ombang ambing,
bahkan kabar burung aja bisa bikin penjualan sebuah PT menurun drastis..

pasar stok kita terpengaruh juga karena ya investasi kita banyaknya dari amrik jg ya klo dia org tarik kembali ya wes..
tapi masalahnya orang indo pun juga rame2 ngejual itu saham,, tinggal tunggu aja ada pengambil kesempatan dalam kesempitan ini,,
makanya negara uda buru2 mengantisipasi hal ini dengan cara mau take back lagi saham2 BUMN semuanya.

dan sekarang masalahnya pada perbankan kita pun yg juga mulai kepanikan.. liat aj suku bunga deposito..
naek mpe 11% sekarang.. biasanya cmn berkisar 4-7%

[VintageAllstar]

dan sekarang masalahnya pada perbankan kita pun yg juga mulai kepanikan.. liat aj suku bunga deposito..
naek mpe 11% sekarang.. biasanya cmn berkisar 4-7%

BI memang menaikan rate sebesar 25 basis poin tapi itu tidak menunjukan bahwa Bank yang panik tapi ini adalah respons bank sentral terhadap Masyarakat awam yang panik akibat isu ekonomi. kebijakan moneter yang dilakukan oleh bank sentral ini disebut kebijakan moneter kontraktif dengan menggunakan fasilitas instrumen Disconto rate karena jikalau terjadi derasnya laju pertukaran vallas dari dollar ke rupiah yang bisa menimbulkan inflasi.

jikalau BI rate di naikan maka bank-bank lain akan ikut menyesuaikan rate suku bunga dengan berharap bahwa masyarakat akan menyimpan uang mereka dalam bentuk rupiah maupun vallas agar dapat dinetralisasi dan agar volume pertukaran di pasar tidak terlalu berlebihan karena dapat memicu naiknya harga barang dan jasa (inflasi)

[VintageAllstar]

Jelasin "dampak hal ini terhadap Indonesia" azah, penyebab krisis kan udah dipost byk ekonom

dampak nya adalah jikalau masyarakat awam terlalu merespons anjlok nya Bursa saham America maka akan bersinggungan dengan kepanikan masyarakat awam sehingga akan terjadi pertukaran valluta asing dalam volume yang banyak dalam bentuk dollar ke rupiah.
dan jikalau terjadi hal demikian maka peredaran rupiah di pasar akan semakin banyak dan tidak terkontrol dan menyebabkan harga barang dan jasa menjadi melambung(inflasi)

satu-satunya kebijakan pemerintah yang dapat diambil adalah
Mencoba menenangkan masyarakat dan mensosialisasikan kondisi ekonomi Indonesia yang masih stabil (moral perssuasion) atau kalau perlu menerapkan Kebijakan moneter kontraktif (discount rate, open market operation atau dengan Reservee rate requierment)

sekitar 1/2 jam lalu sya baru lihat info dari TVone, dimana Mba sri ternyata mengeluarkan jurus jitu dengan menambah agungan penjaminan nasabah dari pemerintah dimana yang sebelumnya 100jt per nasabah menjadi 2,5 M per nasabah. << salah satu trik moral perssuasion)

[VintageAllstar]

Jika finansial Amerika Serikat ambruk, negaranya sendiri yang ambruk, bersamaan beberapa perusahan di dunia yang mendapatkan bantuan finansial dari AS.

kronologis sistematika ekonominya bisa dijelaskan lebih detil ngk??

[luna_croz]

dampak nya adalah jikalau masyarakat awam terlalu merespons anjlok nya Bursa saham America maka akan bersinggungan dengan kepanikan masyarakat awam sehingga akan terjadi pertukaran valluta asing dalam volume yang banyak dalam bentuk dollar ke rupiah.
dan jikalau terjadi hal demikian maka peredaran rupiah di pasar akan semakin banyak dan tidak terkontrol dan menyebabkan harga barang dan jasa menjadi melambung(inflasi)

satu-satunya kebijakan pemerintah yang dapat diambil adalah
Mencoba menenangkan masyarakat dan mensosialisasikan kondisi ekonomi Indonesia yang masih stabil (moral perssuasion) atau kalau perlu menerapkan Kebijakan moneter kontraktif (discount rate, open market operation atau dengan Reservee rate requierment)

sekitar 1/2 jam lalu sya baru lihat info dari TVone, dimana Mba sri ternyata mengeluarkan jurus jitu dengan menambah agungan penjaminan nasabah dari pemerintah dimana yang sebelumnya 100jt per nasabah menjadi 2,5 M per nasabah. << salah satu trik moral perssuasion)

2.5 M? hmm ga yakin gw kalo bank mau jamin 2.5 m 1 nasabah..
ada apa2 dengan bank tb bisa bangkrut pemerintah

[VintageAllstar]

2.5 M? hmm ga yakin gw kalo bank mau jamin 2.5 m 1 nasabah..

yang bilang bank mau menjaim 2,5M siapa?
Mba sri maksudnya adalah Sri Mulyani.
mentri keuangan rencananya akan mengeluarkan kebijakan pemerintah dengan penjaminan peningkatan dari 100jt ke 2,5M per nasabah.

[luna_croz]

ia maksud gw si begitu.. kalo itu dikluarin ga berabe? 100juta aja itu da cukup berat bagi pemerintah klo ada 1 bank yg sampe2 collapse apalagi 2,5M 1 nasabah.
mo ganti berapa bnyak duit itu klo sampe2 ada bank yg collapse?

[DoOs_101]

BI memang menaikan rate sebesar 25 basis poin tapi itu tidak menunjukan bahwa Bank yang panik tapi ini adalah respons bank sentral terhadap Masyarakat awam yang panik akibat isu ekonomi. kebijakan moneter yang dilakukan oleh bank sentral ini disebut kebijakan moneter kontraktif dengan menggunakan fasilitas instrumen Disconto rate karena jikalau terjadi derasnya laju pertukaran vallas dari dollar ke rupiah yang bisa menimbulkan inflasi.

jikalau BI rate di naikan maka bank-bank lain akan ikut menyesuaikan rate suku bunga dengan berharap bahwa masyarakat akan menyimpan uang mereka dalam bentuk rupiah maupun vallas agar dapat dinetralisasi dan agar volume pertukaran di pasar tidak terlalu berlebihan karena dapat memicu naiknya harga barang dan jasa (inflasi)

Benar sekali, karena itu gua usulkan kita berpikir secara kritis, mengapa kita harus awam terhadap sebuah isu yang dibesarkan oleh media tanpa penjelasan dan logika.

Kalo disini gak ada yg bisa ngejelasin mengapa krisis financial dunia bisa terjadi yah kenapa kita harus panik?

"The cause and effect is inevitable to the will and confidence of men."

If the media can change your confidence, they can change you

[luna_croz]

@doos: apakah anda mempunyai kepemilikan saham di indo? komentar anda mungkin hanya akan berlaku bagi orang2 yg tidak memiliki saham karena ngapain pusing pikirin saham? wong makan pun juga bukan dari saham? tapi yg maen saham sampe M-Man?

klo mo maen saham di indo ya harus ikutin budaya juga.. budaya disini ketakutan akan isu. isu dikit pada jual pastinya.. u mo simpen ya resiko u sendiri.
klo sampe perusahaan uda bangkrut doloan gara2 pada jual sahamnya dan ga ada cadangan modal lagi.. ya siap2 aja gigit jari.

media disini sebagai alat bantu saja. mau percaya atau tidak terserah kepada anda.
jikalau anda terlalu banyak waktu untuk pulang pergi ke luar negeri untuk mendapatkan sebuah informasi terbaru tentang perusahaan2 yg berhubungan dengan perusahaan yg anda pegang sahamnya tentunya tidak akan mudah.

Global systemic crisis / September 2008 - Phase of collapse of US real economy
- Public announcement GEAB N°22 (February 16, 2008) -



According to LEAP/E2020, the end of the third quarter of 2008 will be marked by a new tipping point in the unfolding of the global systemic crisis. At that time indeed, the cumulated impact of the various sequences of the crisis (see table below) will reach its maximum strength and affect decisively the very heart of the systems concerned, on the frontline of which the United States, epicentre of the current crisis. In the United States, this new tipping point will translate into a collapse of the real economy, final socio-economic stage of the serial bursting of the housing and financial bubbles (1) and of the pursuance of the US dollar fall. The collapse of US real economy means the virtual freeze of the American economic machinery: private and public bankruptcies in large numbers, companies and public services closing down massively (2),...

A revealing harbinger: from March 2008 onward, the US government will stop a service publishing its economic indicators due to budget restrictions (3). Those who read the GEAB N°2 (02/2006) and included Alert certainly keep in mind our anticipation which connected the upcoming fall of the US dollar with the US Fed’s decision to cease publishing the M3 indicator. This new decision is another clear sign that US leaders are now anticipating a very bleak economic outlook for their country.




Time perspective of the seven sequences of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis as anticipated since mid-2007 - Source LEAP/E2020, GEAB N°18 (10/2007)
In this 22nd issue of the GEAB, LEAP/E2020’s experts try in particular to anticipate very specifically what will come out of the collapse of the US real economy for the United States themselves and for the other regions of the world. Meanwhile our team presents five sets of strategic and operational recommendations helping to protect oneself from the upcoming deterioration of the global systemic crisis.

On the occasion of the second anniversary of the publication of our famous “Global systemic crisis Alert” which toured the world in February 2006 (4), LEAP/E2020 wishes to remind that we are now resolutely stepping into an era with no historical precedent. Our researchers insisted on that many times in the last two years: any comparison with the previous crises of our modern economy would be fallacious. It is neither a “remake” of the 1929 crisis nor a repetition of the 1970s oil crises or 1987 stock market crisis. It is truly a global systemic crisis, that is to say a crisis affecting the entire planet and questioning the very foundations of the international system upon which the world was organised in the last decades.

According to LEAP/E2020, it is also instructive to observe that, two years after the release of this « Alert » which at the time generated both the interest of millions of readers worldwide and the condescending irony of most « experts » and « managers » of the economic and financial spheres, everyone is now convinced that a crisis is truly happening, that it is really global, and for most people already that it could indeed be systemic. However, it is always a repeated astonishment for our team to see the degree of incapacity of these same experts and managers in understanding the specific nature of the phenomenon currently unfolding. According to them, this crisis would only be a usual crisis but bigger. As a matter of fact that’s how the financial media reflect the dominant interpretations of the ongoing crisis. According to our team, this approach is not only intellectually lazy (5), it is also morally guilty, because it has for a main consequence to prevent their readers (whether they are simple citizens, private investors or public or private organisation managers) from preparing for the upcoming shocks (6).

For this reason, in opposition to all what can be read in the mainstream media always eager to conceal the truth and serve the interests of those who rule them, LEAP/E2020 wishes to remind that it is first and foremost in the United States that the systemic crisis is taking an unprecedented shape (the « Very Great US Depression » as our team decided to call it in January 2007 (7)) because it is around this country, and this country alone, that the world got progressively organised after the second World War. The various issues of the GEAB extensively described this situation. In short, it appears to be useful to make clear that neither Europe nor Asia have a negative saving rate, a full-scale housing crisis throwing millions of citizens out of their homes, a free-falling currency, abysmal public and trade deficits, an economic recession and, on top of all this, a number of costly wars to finance.

Neither Asia nor Europe (or more precisely ‘nor the Eurozone’) will suffer the roughest, the most sustainable and the most negative impact of the ongoing crisis; but the United States will, as well as all the countries/economies strongly linked to the US (what our experts have decided to call “the American risk”) (8). A “decoupling” is indeed taking place between the US economy and the other large regions of the world. But “decoupling” does not mean “independence” and it is clear that, as anticipated by LEAP/E2020 for many months, Asia and Europe will be affected by the crisis. But « decoupling » entails that the evolution of the US economy and of the other large regions of the world are no longer synchronised, that Asia and Europe are now moving along courses no longer determined by the US economy.

The global systemic crisis is in fact the beginning of an economic « decoupling » between the US and the rest of the world, knowing that the non « decoupled » economies will be dragged down the US negative spiral.



US Self-Employment in a Steep Downturn - Source Bureau of Labor Statistics / Merril Lynch (shaded region represents period of US recession)
The cases of the housing (2006) and financial (2007) bubble-bursting are eloquent. Indeed, the large majority of operators (non-specialised in the concerned sector) discovered that « the party was over » a long time after the trend had reversed. During the entire reversal period (which usually lasts between 6 to 12 months at most), dominant stances kept repeating them that nothing was changing and that emerging worries had no reason to be; and later, that the problems would remain confined to the sector concerned and to the US only. All those who, in the US and elsewhere, listened to these arguments are bitterly regretful now that they are stuck with unmarketable houses (or about to be foreclosed) or now that they see the value of their assets crumble day after day (9).

Concerning stock markets, our team has anticipated since October 2007 that international stocks would plummet by 20 to 60 percent according to the region in the course of the year 2008. Today, we must re-evaluate our anticipations as we estimate that losses will be even greater than that. Indeed, on the one hand, stock markets have already lost between 10 and 20 percent since the beginning of the year (10), and, on the other hand, the collapse of the real economy in the US by the end of Summer 2008 will drag down all stock markets. According to LEAP/E2020, international stock markets will probably drop by 50 percent in average compared to 2007 (including in the emerging countries) (11).

This sort of re-evaluation is typical of the work of anticipation carried by LEAP/E2020. Month after month we try to distinguish which trends are growing and which are relenting in order to improve the accuracy of our evaluations. We do not strive to “be right” (12), not to “sell” or “promote” anything. We seek simply and without prejudice to describe in advance the consequences of the heavy trends at play in this 21st-century world, and to share with our readers what we think are the proper means to protect oneself from the most negative effects.

In this 22nd issue of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, with the alert we sound about a collapse of US real economy from September 2008 onward, we are trying again to warn those concerned that this major event will generate many very severe socio-political troubles in the United States (13) whose economy is truly on a tumbling course (14), a situation extremely likely to entail very heavy consequences for the financial and monetary markets, and for the world’s economy. We have not yet reached the heart of the crisis. According to LEAP/E2020, we will be there in the second semester of 2008.


----------
Notes:

(1) A very instructive film was recently nominated at the Sundance Film Festival: I.O.U.S.A., directed by Patrick Creadon. As it follows the journey of David Walker.S._Comptroller_General, US Comptroller General (and therefore responsible for controlling federal public spending), during a series of conferences on the state of public expenditures throughout the country, this film shows the very direct impact of the current crisis on American citizens and the United States. The release of this film illustrates the fact that, in just a few months time, this crisis left the mere circles of experts and boardrooms of financial institutions to enter into the daily life of the US citizens.

(2) In the past few days, the complete collapse of Municipal bonds (or « Munis ») illustrates the fact that the crisis is spreading to all the sectors of the US society. This collapse will freeze all public investment projects scheduled by local authorities in the US. It is one of the first big victims of the implosion of « bonds insurers » announced by LEAP/E2020 in the GEAB N°19. It also demonstrates the fact that large banks are now incapable of playing their role of financers of the country’s economic activity. Sources: Financial Times, 02/13/2008 & Bloomberg, 02/14/2008

(3) Source: EconomicIndicators.Gov, Economics & Statistics Administration, US Department of Commerce

(4) See GEAB N°2, 02/15/2006

(5) The first reason that may prevent those « experts » to conceive the « unconceivable », is not a matter of intelligence but a « commercial » problem. Indeed it would compel them to review most of their intellectual principles (their work hypotheses) and their business base (their « clients » would not appreciate to learn that they were on the wrong track all these years).

(6) On this subject, it is worth noticing the very straightforward speech made by the head of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, who recently warned his fellow citizens that the current crisis would downgrade significantly their living standards. Unfortunately, no US leader, including among the Democrats, is able to produce such a speech, knowing that their fellow citizens are hit even harder than the British. Source: The Telegraph, 02/14/2008.

(7) See GEAB N°11, 01/15/2007.

(8) In this 22nd issue of the GEAB, the LEAP/E2020 team gives a set of recommendations helping investors to assess themselves the « American risk » of a country, sector or investment.

(9) The same goes for all those who chose to listen to similar arguments telling them, along the years 2006 and 2007, that it was impossible for the EURUSD exchange rate to go above 1.30, then 1.40, and now 1.50… while waiting 1.70 at the end of the year 2008.

(10) Only « dream merchants » can still imagine that stock markets could improve by the end of the year, while the crisis is speeding up.

(11) It is worth reminding that in January 2008, in just a month, global stock markets saw USD 5,200 billion-worth go up in smoke. Source: China Daily News, 02/10/2008

(12) Even if our anticipations undeniably proved to be right in the past two years concerning the global systemic crisis.

(13) See ‘Sequence 6 : 2nd quarter 2007 – 4th quarter 2009 : « Very Great Depression » in the US, social unrest and growing influence of the army on public management, GEAB N°18, 10/15/2007

(14) Predictions about the failure of dozens of US banks in the coming two years illustrate the scope of upcoming difficulties. Source: Reuters, 02/01/2008


Samedi 16 Février 2008

link:
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-22-is-...omy_a1298.html

SEQUENCE 2 – Stock market collapse in Asia and the US mainly: Between - 60% and -30% in two years according to the regions (4th quarter 2007 – 1st quarter 2009)-
- Excerpt GEAB N°18 (October 16, 2007) -



If you were a subscriber to the GEAB, you would have read what will follow as early as October 16, 2007:

US and Asian financial markets are breaking new records. The fact that these records in Wall Street, calculated in USD, are not enough to compensate the simultaneous loss of value of the US currency compared to the main other international currencies, does not seem to bother the analysts.






Comparative charts –US dollar index and Dow Jones index evolution (2000 – 2007) / Source: Stockcharts
Of course, speculation on emerging markets, Asia especially, is frantic these days. These markets are supposed to cross the US recession unhurt. Meanwhile, the US official statistics (jobs, inflation) come to the rescue of a Fed currently unable to lower its rates (unless by drowning the USD) and waiting to raise them in an attempt to prevent capitals to flow out of the US. Recession + free-falling USD + weak rates are certainly not a good combination to fund the gigantic public and private deficits.



Global equity market capitalization by world regions - June 2007 – Source: S&P/Citigroup Global Equity Index
Even though Wall Street resembles less and less to the stick market of a market economy, and more and more to the institution of a planified economy (1) with a proliferation of organisations and instruments designed to prevent it from collapsing (Plunge Protection Team, « Paulson » pool of US banks missioned to repurchase shares in case of severe fall), the LEAP/E2020 team believes that financial markets are about to experience a new historical drop in the next 18 months. Emerging markets will first collapse because they are bubbles where hedge funds try to find new sources of profit. As shown on the chart above they represent a very small share of global equity market capitalisation (around 10 percent) and therefore they are extremely sensitive to any shock, even minor ones, hitting global stock markets. Global economic slowdown, US recession, global financial crisis, geopolitical instability, the future of these markets in the next 18 months is predictable, with final losses probably going past 50 percent of their current value.

Concerning principal markets, downward trends are also at play for the same reasons. However, apart from the US, LEAP/E2020 anticipates that the drop will be more severe in Japan and UK because these economies are very dependent on the US market, and over-exposed to a drop in the value of US assets (cf. GEAB N°17). The size of the slump can reach 50 percent over 18 months.

Concerning the Eurozone, LEAP/E2020 estimates that it is less exposed to a number of factors previously mentioned, the size of its domestic market and its solvency (as opposed to the US market insolvency), as well as its advantageous position as exporter should enable it to contain the slump to 30 percent.

Concerning the United States, the evolution of Wall Street’s mechanisms is extremely puzzling. If normal market rules were at play, the main indicators should be down by 50 to 60 percent at the beginning of 2009. However, due to growing interventionism on the part of US authorities on US stock values (resulting from the bursting of the housing bubble and the ongoing crisis) and contingent on the political evolutions LEAP/E2020 anticipates could result from America’s “Very Great Depression”, it is more difficult to make a accurate forecast. Indeed the slump could be contained to 30 percent due to some intervention in the name of “national interest”, all the more since today’s financial crisis provides a good context for stock manipulations. For instance, for some days (see weeks) during the August shock, a majority of investors did not have the possibility to have any information on the exact value of their investments. The table below eloquently indicates the percentage of people who met this difficulty in Wall Street last August. It has been compiled from polls elaborated John J. Xenakis from Generational Dynamics.



Corporate bonds 62%
Commercial mortgage-backed securities 63%
High-yield bonds 65%
Mortgage-backed securities 66%
Leveraged loans 69%
Collateralized loan obligations 78%
Asset-back securities 82%
CDOs / Structured credit 83%



---------
Notes:

(1) « The invisible hand of (of the US government) in financial markets », Financial Sense, 04/2005


Jeudi 17 Juillet 2008

http://www.leap2020.eu/SEQUENCE-2-St...8235c1ac38bbfc

bahkan di bulan sebelumnya aja dah diperkirakan akan ambruk.. dan efeknya baru kliatan sekarang sampai awal 2009 pula.

[luna_croz]

kalau ini yg terjadi di AS.. AS benar2 gawat deng,,

Krisis Global Hantam Warga AS, Semua Maunya Tunai

Laksana krisis moneter yang meluluhlantakan Asia Tenggara pada 1997, krisis keuangan global sudah sampai kepada kehidupan sehari-hari keluarga-keluarga di Amerika Serikat, salah satunya bisnis pakaian dan kebutuhan hidup warga di Negara Paman Sam itu.

Bagaimana tidak, setiap hari krisis keuangan makin buruk setiap kali itu pula tekanan semakin besar terhadap industri ritel Amerika Serikat.

"Waktu rasanya berjalan sangat cepat," tulis wartawati Washington Post, Ylan Mui dan Kendra Marr dalam The Post edisi 9 Oktober.
Kemarin saja (Rabu waktu AS), tatkala jam menjelang masa liburan akhir tahun makin kencang berdentang, para pengelola pasar swalayan dan butik-butik pakaian dilaporkan tertekan volume penjualannya.

Target, salah satu operator swalayan AS mengaku, para pembelinya memiliki kartu kredit yang rata-rata "over" kredit.

Di sisi lain, lalu lintas pengiriman barang turun drastis akibat kekhawatiran tidak laku sehingga tak bisa dilunasi para pengelola toko.

Bob Carbonell, kepala bagian kredit pada Bernard Sands, sebuah lembaga pemeringkat retail dan jasa pembiayaan di AS menilai, semua orang di AS tak pernah menyangka skala dampak krisis ekonomi sekarang demikian besar sehingga tak ada yang berani memprediksi kapan petaka ini berakhir.

Bob melihat, orang-orang AS yang biasanya konsumtif tiba-tiba pelit berbelanja dan lebih suka menyimpan hartanya dalam rumah.

"Jika rumahtangga-rumahtangga Amerika menyimpan uangnya di bawah bantal, maka bangsa ini sungguh dalam kesulitan besar," kata Bob.

Para pengelola pasar swalayan dan butik pakaian di AS tengah berjuang keras untuk meraih untung di masa liburan yang biasanya mengambil 20 persen dari seluruh volume penjualan tahunan toko-toko pakaian di AS.

Bayangkan saja, pada tiga bulan terakhir, belanja konsumen diperkirakan turun hingga ke posisi terendah sejak resesi 1991.

Berita-berita menakutkan sepanjang September mulai dari bangkrutnya Lehman Brothers dan jatuh bebasnya pasar keuangan akibat paket stimulus 700 miliar dolar AS yang gagal menstimulasi pasar, telah menghajar para pengusaha waralaba AS sekaligus menggerus kepercayaan konsumen.

Pada hari ketika DPR menolak proposal "bailout" Presiden Bush, kunjungan ke pusat-pusat perbelanjaan di AS langsung turun 12 persen, demikian riset ShopperTrak.

Keluarga-keluarga AS dipaksa untuk mati-matian berhemat, seperti dilakukan pasangan Scott dan Elaine Bourdeau yang merasakan perubahan kerasnya kehidupan mereka setelah krisis keuangan menerjang negara mereka.

Pasangan yang tinggal di Herndon ini semula berencana berlibur di Italia untuk memeringati ulang tahun pernikahannya yang kesepuluh, namun membatalkannya dengan hanya pergi ke Teluk San Francisco.

Pasangan ini juga membatalkan rencana merenovasi kamar mandi rumah mereka dengan fokus pada hal-hal paling penting seperti kebutuhan pakaian kedua anak perempuannya.

Mereka bahkan harus mengurangi belanja untuk liburan Natal mendatang. "Satu bingkisan (Natal) untuk setiap anak."

Situasi serupa terjadi di seluruh penjuru negeri dan kalau pun ada yang diuntungkan, maka pastilah itu para pengusaha retail berharga obral kendati keuntungannya tetap di bawah prediksi Wall Street.

Wal-Mart dilaporkan mencatat volume penjualan hampir sama dengan tahun lalu, Sam's Club tumbuh 2,8 persen pada September dibanding periode sama tahun lalu, sedangkan Costco berkembang hingga 9 persen.

Sebaliknya, volume penjualan pasar-pasar swalayan dari Kohl's sampai Nordstrom juga tertekan tajam setidaknya selama setahun terakhir ini, sedangkan waralaba produk kesehatan mencatat volume penjualan yang sama dengan tahun lalu. Dillard's, JCPenney dan Saks bahkan tenggelam hingga dua digit.

Gambaran kelam ini telah membuat kecut dunia waralaba dalam menghadapi libur akhir tahun ini.

Penjualan mereka memang ditargetkan turun 3 persen, sebagian karena banyaknya tagihan kartu kredit yang tak terlunasi, namun capaian laba kuartalan mereka menjadi jauh lebih rendah dibanding prediksi sebelumnya sehingga banyak diantara mereka menurunkan target kinerjanya.

"Kekhawatirannya sudah akut, sedangkan ketidakmenentuannya lebih tinggi lagi," kata Gene Tyndall, wakil presiden eksekutif pada Tompkins Associates, sebuah perusahaan konsultan pensuplai barang ritel.

Sementara itu, seorang warga bernama Domonique Blaine (23), terpaksa berbelanja lebih konservatif dengan mencari produk obral sembari tetap memperhatikan merek.

Sebenarnya dia mengincar jas berbahan wol seharga 250 dolar AS, namun keinginan itu terpaksa dipendamnya.

"Setahun lalu, saya tinggal ambil saja jas itu," kata lajang yang kini punya motto, "Berhematlah dan korbankan keinginanmu." Di lingkup lebih besar, para pengusaha retail dipaksa berpikir ekstra keras.

Mereka harus berhati-hati memesan barang karena kalau terlanjur memesan dalam jumlah banyak maka mereka harus bisa memastikan pembelinya ada, padahal daya beli warga AS kini sedang jatuh. Akibatnya, kebanyakan dari mereka menunda pembelian stok baru.

Matt Rubel, kepala eksekutif Payless ShoeSource menyatakan, perusahaannya telah memutuskan untuk menurunkan stok barangnya di bawah volume tahun lalu.

"Kami mencoba berhati-hati dalam mendatangkan barang dan memastikan tidak kelebihan membeli barang (overbuy) karena kami tak ingin barang terbuang percuma," kata Matt.

Seirama dengan Matt, kepala eksekutif JCPenney Myron Ullman III menyatakan, perusahaannya mengontrol ketat stok barangnya sampai bulan-bulan terakhir tahun ini.

Langkah lebih drastis dilakukan Costco yang memutuskan memangkas kapasitas gudangnya hingga rata-rata 150 ribu dolar AS dalam kuartal ini, sedangkan Macy's mengurangi stok barangnya hingga 3,7 persen dibanding priode sama tahun lalu.

Sejumlah pengusaha ritel malah bertindak lebih jauh dengan berancang-ancang untuk memberi diskon lebih cepat dari masa yang seharusnya.

"Semua orang mulai berbicara untuk memberi diskon lebih awal," Doug Hart, seorang dealer untuk BDO Seidman.

Perusahaan-perusahaan ritel AS benar-benar ditimpa banyak kesulitan, tidak hanya oleh sulitnya perusahaan membeli stok barang karena rusaknya pasar kredit namun juga karena kesulitan mendapatkan pembeli.

Para penyedia barang tidak mau lagi menerima pembayaran lewat kredit, semuanya menuntut tunai.

Sebuah riset terbaru untuk BDO Seidman menunjukkan, 41 persen akses perusahaan ritel ke kredit perbankan diperketat, bahkan raksasa ritel terbesar AS, Wal-Mart, terpaksa membeli barang secara tunai ketimbang kredit karena pasar surat berharga di AS memang sedang bergejolak.

Perusahaan pembiayaan seperti Bernard Sands yang biasa menjembatani pabrik dan perusahaan ritel telah menolak menjamin kredit ritel karena takut perusahaan ritel tidak mampu membayar.

Bahkan kalau pun barang-barang ritel itu bisa dibeli lewat sistem kredit, perusahaan ritel masih dihadapkan pada kesulitan lain, yaitu rendahnya daya beli konsumen.

"Kepercayaan konsumen lagi kritis. Kebebasan untuk berbelanjalah yang sekarang dalam bahaya," kata Tyndall.

Padahal, sekedar catatan, arus konsumsilah yang selama ini menggerakan perekonomian AS.

http://www.kompas.com/read/xml/2008/...a.maunya.tunai

[VintageAllstar]

ia maksud gw si begitu.. kalo itu dikluarin ga berabe? 100juta aja itu da cukup berat bagi pemerintah klo ada 1 bank yg sampe2 collapse apalagi 2,5M 1 nasabah.
mo ganti berapa bnyak duit itu klo sampe2 ada bank yg collapse?

konsekuensinya kalau 1 bank collapse, entah bank apapun itu pastilah perekonomian Indonesia juga akan collapse.
back to the great Deppresion era in 1929.

[luna_croz]

yup2 sepertinya sudah berantai perbankan indonesia..
bahkan uda hampir sama kuat nya semua.
ga usa balik sampe 1929 da.. 1998 aja da cukup.

[Andaman_Nikobar]

Indonesia is more weather to withstand global crisis compare to other countries

JAKARTA - PAINFUL reforms launched amid the maelstrom of the 1997-1998 Asian economic downturn have put the region in good shape to weather the much deeper crisis now gripping global markets, economists said.
Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand were at the centre of the storm a decade ago when high debts, low reserves, poor regulation and currency speculation triggered economic 'contagion' that spread from Jakarta to Moscow.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) threw lifelines worth US$58 billion (S$86 billion) to Seoul, US$43 billion to Jakarta and US$17 billion to Bangkok in return for far-reaching reform as the three 'Asian tigers' teetered near bankruptcy.

How times have changed.

Now it's the United States and Europe which are leading the plunge with some of the world's most respected investment banks collapsing under the weight of trillions of dollars in bad debts.

'Astonishing events have unfolded over the past few weeks. I mean, who would have thought that the American investment banking system would have basically disappeared? It's amazing,' said IMF representative to Indonesia, Milan Zavadjil.

Economists said the turmoil of 2008 was very different to the banking and currency crisis that spread through Asia a decade earlier, but there were also similarities such as mountains of bad debt and weak government oversight.

In contrast to 1997, most Asian economies would ride out the current storm with relative ease, they said.

However, countries which export heavily to the United States and Europe, such as Singapore, the Philippines and Hong Kong, may be exceptions.

'Indonesia is deleveraged, this is the point. The government has a low debt level by international standards, Mr Zavadjil said, adding that domestic consumption would continue to fuel growth.

'The consumers have been borrowing for cars and motorcycles but it's nothing like the developed countries. Basically I think the fundamentals are very strong and it's in good shape to weather this turmoil compared to other countries.'

http://news.id.msn.com/regional/arti...mentid=1731106

semoga benar

[Valdarez]

semoga...
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