Indonesia as a New Democratic Power

[Antasari_Azhar]

RI will be more stable than India, Malaysia and Thailand in 2009


With concern setting in about the declining rupiah and share prices, there is good news yet: Indonesia next year will be much more stable than regional peers India, Malaysia and Thailand, a Hong Kong-based political risk consultancy said Monday.

"Indonesia is much more stable today than it was when the regional financial crisis hit in 1997-98. The coming election campaign is likely to see the present government return, with (President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono) winning the presidency and keeping Jusuf Kalla as his vice president," the Political & Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) said in a report, whose executive summary is available on PERC's website.

Following a massive crackdown on alleged terrorist group Jamaah Islamiyah in recent years, coupled with improving social conditions, Indonesia seems almost guaranteed of stability. But the threat of terrorism is still a factor, PERC warned.

"There is still a possibility of more terrorist incidents, but overall social conditions are more stable now than at any time in a decade," it said.

PERC assessed 16 countries in its Asian Risk Prospects -- 2009 on factors such as the risk of racial and communal tensions, struggle for power, the threat posed by social activism, and vulnerability to policy changes by other governments.

Indonesia, Southeast Asia's biggest economy, rated as the fourth least stable country in the region, with a score of six on a scale of 10, in which zero represents the best socio-political conditions and 10 the highest risk.

South Asian behemoth India topped the table with the highest political and social risk, scoring 6.87, mainly because of internal and external instability. PERC cited fears over Pakistan, a major player in the global war on terror.

"India faces some of the biggest risks in 2009 because of uncertainties surrounding the coming general election, rising communal violence and terrorism incidents.

"The biggest risk is that a deterioration in political and economic conditions in neighboring Pakistan could aggravate social unrest in India further and hurt national security," PERC
said.

Thailand is pegged to be the next least stable country in Southeast Asia next year, scoring 6.28, as the current political mayhem and the separatist violence looks set to run into 2009.

Surprisingly, Malaysia, which escaped much of the wrath of the 1997 financial crisis, will be the third least stable in the region, with the report noting the political wranglings were aggravating racial and religious tensions.

"The status quo is changing in ways that will see a stronger political opposition than in the past and UMNO (the ruling party) forced to share more power with non-Malay groups," the report
said.

But these three countries could be relatively immune to the global financial fallout.

"India, Thailand and Malaysia are not so much vulnerable to negative fallout from the global financial crisis as they are to factors that are mainly internal," Robert Broadfoot, PERC managing director, told Reuters on Tuesday.

"For these countries, the coming global economic storm is only going to make a bad situation worse," he said.

The tightly controlled city-state of Singapore was ranked the most stable country, boasting an extremely low political risk in 2009, though its economy is expected to take a big hit from the financial crisis as it heads toward recession.

This is expected to mirror the current situation in the United States, badly weakened economically and psychologically.

"It is a humbling experience that, coinciding with a change in government, is likely to see the U.S. become less aggressive in pushing its views on other countries," PERC said.

With a score of 5.33, China will have a tough year economically in 2009 but not a disastrous one.

PERC is a consulting firm specializing in strategic business information and analysis for companies doing business in East and Southeast Asia.



http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2...land-2009.html

Hebat sekali! Maju terus!

[Antasari_Azhar]

Pump priming the domestic economy to survive the financial crisis

Cyrillus Harinowo, Jakarta

Chinese President Hu Jintao recently reaffirmed his country's
determination to promote the domestic economy while keeping the
external accounts balanced. This kind of strong statement is
greatly needed amid the uncertainty arising from the financial
crisis that is expected to lead to a global recession.

Asian countries will certainly be affected by the global
downturn. Exporting companies in the region are already feeling
the pinch from the imminent global recession. The only way for
the countries in the region to mitigate the impact is through
the promotion of the domestic economy.

Concerted efforts by Asian countries will create a region where
economic activities can be decoupled from the global downturn,
but at the same time will also lead into higher import demands
from the rest of the world. The strong reserves of the region,
which have been accumulated over many years, can now be
mobilized to increase the financing of the imports badly needed
to strengthen the domestic economy.

Indonesia has the advantage of being rich in natural resources.
A country with a population of 225 million people and with a
rising per-capita income can form a strong domestic economy. So
how strong is the Indonesian domestic economy?

In 2008, the country may reach a per-capita income of between
$2,300 and $2,400 depending in the GDP in the fourth quarter. Up
to September, the Indonesian economy seemed to be doing well.
Reports from various companies indicate that many of them
exceeded their production or revenue targets.

Bank Indonesia recently predicted that the third quarter GDP may
have grown by 6.3 percent, slightly higher than their first and
second quarter predictions. If this proves accurate, then in the
first three quarters of this year the Indonesian GDP produced a
growth rate of over 6.3 percent compared to the same period last
year. Therefore, a slightly less impressive growth rate in the
fourth quarter will probably still lead to over 6.0 percent
growth, year-on-year, during the whole of 2008. Despite the
recent problems this positive outcome is now widely predicted.

Indonesia is also experiencing growth in the size of the middle
class. Based on the distribution of income, 22.5 million people
-- almost the same as the whole population of Malaysia -- earned
an average of $7,000 in 2008 -- higher than the 2006 average
per-capita income of Malaysia. Another 22.5 million people
earned an average of $3,500, while 22.5 million people earn
around $2,300.

In total, 67.5 million people -- slightly more than the entire
population of Thailand -- earned an average income of $3,700,
slightly higher than Thailand's 2006 average per capita income.

While some people have been badly affected by the financial
crisis, such as by losing their accumulated wealth via the now
bankrupt Lehman Brothers or losing the value of their stocks,
their recurrent income will continue to rise if the economy
continues to post positive growth. Therefore, ensuring continued
growth in the economy is an urgent task for the government,
which can be facilitated by the promotion of the domestic
economy.

In 2009, the new Indonesian income tax law will release around
Rp 40 trillion for companies and individuals through tax reforms
and liberalization. This total estimated reduction in the tax
burden represents one form of fiscal stimulus that can be spent
on further expansion or on consumer spending.

In the meantime, the decision to accelerate project
implementation, for example for infrastructure projects, will
create broader activities that can stimulate employment. A
number of projects, such as the MRT in Jakarta, the East Flood
Drain (BKT) and the construction of toll roads in various
places, as well as other government development projects will
start in 2009.

It is hoped that fast implementation of such projects can be
done on the same lines as the rapid construction of the
Cengkareng Airport toll road that is currently being built at a
brisk pace.

The declining oil price in the recent weeks may also help the
implementation of fiscal stimulus.

This means a lower requirement for fuel subsidies as well as
helping to make available more fuel supplies for the government.
Funds saved from energy subsidies can be pooled to finance the
development of infrastructure projects such as highways as well
as production of non fossil fuel (or renewable) energy.

If the oil price continue to fall, then there is a one time
chance for the government to start considering the collection of
a carbon tax.

For example, currently the subsidized gasoline price was set at
Rp. 6.000. If the oil price continues to decline, the value of
"subsidized" gasoline could reach a level of Rp. 5,000. If the
price continues to be fixed at Rp. 6,000, the government could
start collecting revenue of Rp. 1,000 for each liter of
"subsidized" gasoline.

This temporary revenue could be set as a carbon tax. If the oil
price continued to decline even further, then for example, the
"subsidized" value could reach Rp. 4,000 per liter, then the
Government could decide to reduce the official price or leave it
as an additional revenue on top of the carbon tax.

On the other hand, if the value of the "subsidized" gasoline
increases to Rp. 6,000 (while the proposed carbon tax is set at
Rp. 1,000) then the Government starts subsidizing the gasoline
as planned, while at the same time the carbon tax continues to
be collected at Rp. 1,000 per liter.

Time is running out fast to make use of this "roller coaster"
oil price. Therefore the government has to stand ready to take
advantage of such conditions. With such an instrument, the
promotion of the domestic economy can be made more effective.

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2...al-crisis.html

Maju terus

[gabrielle]

mudah2an wacana tersebut tidak akan terpengaruhi oleh PEMILU 2009..

[sariayu]

Saya rasa kita harus membangun optimisme. Pandangan yang skeptis dan sok pesimis tidak akan membantu bangsa kita yang sedang dalam masa ’susah’ ini bangkit menjadi bangsa yang besar. Saya kebetulan hadir dalam presentasi tersebut, sebenarnya saya menunggu tanggapan Pak Budi saat itu hehehe. Saya agak heran, mengapa banyak orang yg cenderung pesimis. Memang untuk mencapainya harus dilakukan perubahan perilaku kerja dan budaya … intinya kerja keras. Bukankah kita sudah bisa membuat N-250 terbang ke angkasa (meski tidak ada kabarnya lg). Ayo teman2 SEMANGAT ….

[Menara_Jakarta]

mudah2an wacana tersebut tidak akan terpengaruhi oleh PEMILU 2009..

Iya, semoga setelah pemilu pertumbuhan ekonomi kita optimal, amin.

[payah-deh]

Kami, Laskar Kaisar Xudu, yakin bahwa Indonesia bisa menjadi negara maju.

[biasa]

Wah rasa nasionalisme n patriotisme gw jd mneggila,mudah2an semua wilyah bisa terjadi pemerataan ekonomi n kesejahteraannya,dgn begitu indonesia yg notabene negara kepulauan bisa semakin menjadi kuat.gw ga pengen lg kehilangan salah 1 pulau kita lg.inget Indonesia itu MACAN ASIA.tunggu saatnya bangkit.

[Nining_Meida]

Indonesia dan Malaysia boleh menjadi negara maju! Indonesia Malaysia boleh!

[ranzi]

Setuju dah dengan si Nining, hidup!!

[payah-deh]

Komentar kami, Laskar Kaisar Xudu, singkat saja...tahukah anda yang disebut dengan premanisme jurnalistik? Sudah adilkah pemberitaan mengenai kemajuan Indonesia selama ini? Tentu saja tidak, karena berita tentang keburukan Indonesia akan lebih menjual dibandingkan berita tentang prestasi Indonesia.

[ekspresi2nd]

Optimis Indonesia Kembali Berjaya Melebihi Majapahit!

[jkt-Black_Devil]

Optimis Indonesia Kembali Berjaya Melebihi Majapahit!

Semoga saja bisa, sekarang masih banyak yang perlu dibenahi.

[jkt-Black_Devil]

Indonesia - why there is no recession in the world's leading Muslim economy

Following the election of US President-elect Barack Obama there is likely to be a slow recovery in confidence in the United States financial and banking system. A recession is unavoidable in the US and EU, but with only a downturn in developing countries. This crisis of confidence in the Western banking and financial system comes during the dying days of the most unpopular American presidency in living memory. Financial mismanagement and weak regulatory frameworks have devastated the US economy, making the rich richer and the poor poorer. Two million Americans may lose their homes. Millions in the US and Europe will lose their jobs.

Yet the devastating legacy of the Bush presidency leaves open great opportunities for Indonesia, the Muslim world and the developing countries of the South.

Indonesia can play a key role in leading the Muslim world toward economic recovery, and help minimize the impact of global recession.

First, by managing its national economy to maintain growth, demand, imports and exports. The nominal Gross Domestic Product for 2008 is projected at $547 billion. Indonesia is already in the top 20 economies of the world.

Indonesia is currently overtaking Belgium and Sweden. It will soon overtake Turkey, the Netherlands and Austria as it enormous size, resources and population come into play. It is a strong candidate to join the top 10 economies in the world within two decades.

Second, by mobilizing investment for oil, gas, energy projects, biofuels, infrastructure (roads, railways, ports), manufacturing and retailing sectors. It needs over $40 billion for electricity alone, to finance an additional 40,000 MWe of power by 2025. Indonesia will become a nuclear power, and plans four power stations. Total foreign investment needed overall during the next 15 years exceeds $100 billion.

Investment is still coming from the US and EU (including Eastern Europe) but increasingly from the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China), and also from Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries like Canada, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and from Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states (including Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand). Investment is also coming in greater volume from the Gulf Arab states, Israel and South Africa.

Third, Indonesia can help lead Muslim economies by using its economic size and prestige as a member of the United Nations Security Council to join Brazil, Russia, India, China and Southern countries to bring about changes in policies and in the balance of power in world organizations dealing with trade, finance and development, especially the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Trade Organization (WTO).

Indonesia has major reservations about the IMF following its own experience in 1998. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said that the world should not slip into creating a shadow world economic government run by an inner IMF council. Indonesia is also tired of being kept on the fringes in the WTO.

Asia and Southern countries want a new deal. Muslim countries collectively represent an increasingly important source of capital, while Western liquidity has partly dried up. Muslim economies represent important investment sources as well as investment destinations. The collective size of Muslim economies represents significant demand for Western goods and services, relatively unaffected by the recession in the West.

Indonesia can still deploy export credits, sovereign funds, Islamic finance and other non-traditional financial sources, such as environmental funds and carbon credits. Despite the global downturn Indonesia is still pulling in some bank finance.

A $140 million syndicated loan for Excelcomindo for telecommunications expansion was announced recently. Low-cost airline Lion Air is buying 12 Boeing 737 planes even though the required local cash contribution for the last four has risen to 30 percent. Lion Air will use its own cash to carry on expanding. St. Miguel Corp. of the Philippines is competing with a US-led consortium to clinch a $1.3 billion coal supply deal, to buy PT Bumi Resources from Bakri Brothers. There is money here and money coming in.

Standard and Poors is holding Indonesian credit ratings stable and its credit rating may even be raised. Singapore could slip into recession but Indonesia will not, and the reason is mostly sheer size plus improved financial and economic management.

Indonesia is in a key position as the largest Muslim country in the world with a population of 230 million and a land area of 1.9 million square kilometers.

The Indonesian Gross Domestic Product was $843.7 billion in terms of purchasing power and $432.9 billion in terms of official exchange rates in 2007. It has fixed foreign investment of $57.6 billion and holds $9 billion of investment in other countries. It has more than 3,500 millionaires holding over $100 million each, of whom 70 percent live in Jakarta.

Its current economic growth is 6.5 percent and may fall below 6 percent in 2009 due to reduced exports. Government will stimulate growth using the national budget which already reached $100 billion in 2008. Government is confident it can hold growth at 6 percent. The World Bank has set aside a $2 billion standby loan for 2009 only to be triggered if growth falls below 5.8 percent.

In 2007 Indonesian exports were $118 billion and imports $86 billion, a trade surplus of $32 billion, and foreign exchange reserves as of this month were $50 billion.

Indonesia has already lost some jobs in sectors like textiles. Some exports to the US and Europe fell in the fourth quarter. The stock market, government bonds and the national currency also fell in value during the global financial crash in the first week of October.

The government launched a securities buy-back program spearheaded by state-owned enterprises and defended the rupiah currency by intervening in the currency market via the Bank of Indonesia. The government also took steps to increase liquidity and focused on getting inflation under control and on maintaining growth.

The government has increased guarantees on personal deposits to 2 billion rupiahs ($190,000), which covers 100 percent of deposits for over 99.7 percent of 81 million bank accounts.

Indonesian banks are strong, with adequate reserves, low non-performing loans and almost no exposure to subprime losses. Only a small group of investors lost money on Lehman-related instruments purchased via international banks.

The Indonesian inflation rate is declining from a high of 12 percent to maybe 9 percent by January with reductions planned to between 9 percent and 7 percent for the rest of 2009. The bank rate is being stabilized at 9.5 percent after six months of consecutive rises. It will be held for a while and then reduced to 7.5 percent in 2009.

Indonesian bonds are recovering from their recent nose-dive and the stock market is stabilizing. Local economists say the stock market was over-valued and more normal values and returns will be restored as part of the local share trading cycle.

The government is now focusing on trying to mobilize its massive $115 billion dollar national budget for 2009, up from $100 billion in 2008, to push projects and overall spending forward and help substitute local demand for declines in exports, with every hope of keeping economic growth for 2009 at between 5.5 and 6.0 percent.

Despite the collapse of the Bank of Indonesia subsidiary Indover Bank in the Netherlands, there is no sovereign default. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and the new central bank governor, Boediono, have taken a stand against previous mismanagement.

In contrast to the kid-glove treatment of failed bankers and financial managers in the West, who took imprudent and possibly illegal risks, the Indonesian government is directing the work of its Corruption Eradication Commission and Corruption Court against corrupt central bankers and parliamentarians who took bribes.

The Indonesian government also says it will pursue legally those who misused its name and dragged it into the Indover collapse, by implying there were sovereign guarantees backing Indover borrowing when there were none. It also intends to pursue allegations of short trading and fraudulent practices in the stock exchange.

Indonesia lost 10 years as a result of the 1998 banking crash when it put its fate in the hands of the IMF, which initially failed to understand local strengths and exaggerated local weaknesses. An historical photo shows President Suharto sitting at his desk, signing his own political death-warrant while the IMF representative stood over him, as he signed the IMF agreement.

A lot has changed between the Asian banking crash of 1998 and the Wall Street crash of 2008. The economic balance of power in the world has changed and the balance of global power has shifted to the South and East. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown recognized this when he urged the Gulf states and the G20 to help stabilize the world economy.

In the 1998 bank crash Indonesia had no freedom and no choice. This time in 2008 Indonesia has freedom and is stronger, and can chose to tread its own path. Hopefully its greater strength and determination will inspire Muslim and Southern countries not to panic in the face of recession in the West, but to work together to avoid the spread of recession to the South and to build and strengthen a new world economic order.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article....ticle_id=97616

Insya Allah kita bisa menjadi negara maju.

[Menara_Jakarta]

Crisis? In Indonesia??? hahahahahah.. U MUST BE KIDDING



What crisis?
Indonesia is now starting to play its role (again) as a key player in world peace, by sending peacekeeper to conflict zones around the world, peacemaker diplomats to anywhere on earth, and yes...recently we send our president to G-20 summit in Washington? Why why why? Indonesia is somehow important, and can play a bigger and better role in the future, following the downturn of US and EU's role worldwide..(well, they are still rulling though....violently).

Indonesia, with its $547 billion in GDP ($843.7 billion in PPP), is already listed in 20 largest economy on this planet, overtaking Belgium and Sweden, and of course, we are on the very right way to overtake Turkey, Netherland, and Austria. You know what? We'll soon overtake INDIA ...I PROMISE !!!!!

Indonesia, is planning to establish 5 nuclear plants to boost electricity, and to support national growth and plan to set aside $40 billion to build a much better infrastructure in the next 5 years. Come to our cities, you'll find that our remote cities (outside Java islands) have advanced roads, airports, bridges, ports, and infrastructure.

Direct investment increase in a stable pace, Indonesia starts to attract investors from its traditional sources (EU, Japan, US), but also from Brazil, Russia, China, India too, and of course those thick-pocketed investors from the gulf countries.

Telecomunication sectors move very fast here, we had only 3 player 10 years ago, now it's over 10 telecom companies offering various great offers. We had only 3 major airlines 10 years ago, now we have 51 airlines serving domestic and international routes. Lion air bought 178 new Boeing 737-900 ER, Mandala bought 30 new Airbus A320 and A319, Batavia bought some airbus too, Garuda, the national flag carrier, has inked the deal to buy 50 new Boeing 737-800NG, 10 Boeing 777-300, as well as the phenomenal 787-Dreamliner.



It's predicted that economic growth in 2008 will reach 6.5%, and increase from 6.3% last year, the 2nd fastest in southeast Asia (after Vietnam). National budget for 2009 is $115 billion, and increase from $ 100 billion last year. Export reach $118 billion, import only $96 billion. What else?

oh yes...my country men. We have been winning many many awards in science olympics, math, biology, chemist, IT, culture, astronomy, etc...not in 2nd or 3rd place, we RANK AT THE TOP. Indonesia's finance minister, was crowned as the BEST Finance Minister in ASIA PACIFIC by Euromoney. What else? YOU KNOW WHAT ELSE, BABES !!


Others may fall....Indonesia? Sorry, dudes....dream on !! hahaha

http://akhyari.blogspot.com/2008/11/...-hahahaha.html

Kita bisa menjadi negara maju!

[Menara_Jakarta]

US clout down, risks up by 2025 -intel outlook



Indonesia, an important power in 2025


U.S. economic and political clout will decline over the next two decades and the world will be more dangerous, with food and water scarce and advanced weapons plentiful, U.S. spy agencies projected on Thursday.

The National Intelligence Council analysis "Global Trends 2025" also said the current financial crisis on Wall Street is just the first phase of a global economic reordering.

The U.S. dollar's role as the world's major currency would weaken to become a "first among equals," the report said.

The outlook is intended to inform U.S. President-elect Barack Obama of factors that will influence global events. It is based on a year-long global survey of experts and trends by U.S. intelligence analysts.

"The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," said the report, which was more pessimistic about U.S. influence and the potential for conflict than the last outlook for 2020.

Thomas Fingar, chairman of the intelligence council and deputy national director of intelligence for analysis, said harmful outcomes were not inevitable.

"It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, (or) in some cases (the) working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," Fingar told reporters. "We could have a better world in 2025."

China and India, following a "state capitalism" economic model, were likely to join the United States atop a multipolar world and compete for influence, the report said.

Russia's potential was less certain, depending on its energy wealth and internal investment. But Iran, Turkey and Indonesia were also seen gaining power.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/wo...6-7f1e61307d40

Semoga kita bisa...