Indonesian Bonds to Return 30 Percent, Rupiah to Gain, ING Says
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s local-currency bonds and the rupiah may advance in 2009 as investors seek higher yields because of increasing risk appetite, according to ING Groep NV.
The yield on the government’s 10-year bond will fall 2.9 percentage points to 9.25 percent by Dec. 31 as Bank Indonesia lowers the benchmark interest rate by three quarters of a point, Tim Condon, Singapore-based head of Asia research at the largest Dutch financial services company, said in an interview today.
“Globally we’ll be seeing economies in recovery,” Condon said. “At that point, the intense risk aversion that has characterized the last quarter and beginning of this year will dissipate and people will be looking more for returns and Indonesia will be an attractive destination.”
The bonds would give investors a return of 30 percent in 2009 should Condon’s yield forecast prove accurate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. HSBC Holdings Plc’s index of Indonesian local-currency debt shows the securities have handed investors a profit in six of the past seven years, with the best returns of 29.5 percent in 2006 and 59 percent in 2002.
Indonesia’s 9 percent 10-year bonds maturing in September 2008 yielded 12.16 percent, according to midday prices at the Inter Dealer market Association. The last time the rate fell as low as 9.25 percent was in November 2007.
Rupiah to Strengthen
The central bank cut it benchmark interest rate for a second month in January, to 8.75 percent, to help revive economic growth. Bank Indonesia will reduce the policy rate to 8 percent by year- end, Condon said.
“There’s plenty of liquidity against the backdrop of increasing investor confidence in the country, both domestic and foreign,” Condon said. “There are idle funds which investors can take and put to work.”
Indonesia’s rupiah will also strengthen as growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy beats some other countries in the region, according to Condon.
The rupiah will advance 16 percent to 9,500 per dollar by the end of the fourth quarter, he said, more bullish than the median estimate of 10,940 among 20 finance firms surveyed by Bloomberg News. The currency traded at 11,106 as of 12:36 p.m. in Jakarta. The rupiah slumped 13.8 percent last year, Asia’s third- worst performing currency excluding the yen.
Indonesia’s $433 billion economy will expand 4.5 percent in 2009, Condon predicts. The government said gross domestic product increased 6 percent in 2008. Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and New Zealand all entered a recession.
Inflation will slow to between 5 percent and 7 percent by the end of the year, from 11.06 percent in December, Condon forecast.
Investors “will be seeing that inflation is falling and the economy is not doing that badly,” he said. Indonesia “was Asia’s third-fastest growing economy last year.”
http://www.1-8.asia/2009/01/indonesi...ays-bloomberg/
Good news
Quote of the week:
"Indonesia is on the move, get on board." — Forbes Asia
"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds; and the pessimist fears this is true." James Branch Cabell
Vote for Komodo National Park:
http://www.new7wonders.com/nature/en/vote_on_nominees/
^very nice news!
Yeah, say yes to Rupiah, no to Dollar. We can help our own country that way.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
THE HIGHEST in SOUTHEAST ASIA
Yes, Indonesia succesfully attracted $17 billion in foreign investment, in 2008, outperformed Singapore which ranked safely in #2 with $12 billion. Official said that Foreign Direct Investment is very likely to grow 11% in 2009 due to government's fiscal stimulus package in 2009.
Infrastructure, the key factor in economic growth will also be massively developed this year, and Stream-Powered 10,000 MW will be ready soon. This two key essentials will help indonesia to boost the economy amid global slowdown, and to maintain its GDP growth above 6%. Hey, Indonesia's economic growth in 2008 was 6.2 %, still the highest in the region.
I think, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand, will be the key player in the future to attract more investors.
http://akhyari.blogspot.com/2009/01/...east-asia.html
Bagaimana menurut Anda?
Quote of the week:
"Indonesia is on the move, get on board." — Forbes Asia
"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds; and the pessimist fears this is true." James Branch Cabell
Vote for Komodo National Park:
http://www.new7wonders.com/nature/en/vote_on_nominees/
Nice berita bagus seperti ini mana ada di TV jadi hal ini bisa membuka cakrawala kita kalau indonesia skrg tidak separah yg kita kira ...![]()
Kita bisa menjadi negara maju. Banyak orang yang mengatakan seolah korupsi hanya terjadi di Indonesia, padahal ada dimana-mana. Kami, Laskar Kaisar Xudu, dididik dan digamblang untuk menghargai sejarah. Mari kita melihat sejarah Rusia sebelum kekuasaan Katarina yang Agung. Sebelumnya birokrasi mereka korup dan tidak kompeten, tapi Katarina yang Agung melakukan reformasi politik, yang saat ini juga sedang terjadi di Indonesia menuju 2030. Kami, Laskar Kaisar Xudu, percaya akan hal tersebut.
Kami, Laskar Kaisar Xudu, bersumpah untuk menegakan keadilan di dunia ini demi semakin besarnya kemuliaan Kaisar Xudu, dan demi semakin besarnya kecantikan Ratu Melijanna dan Putri Bernadeath
Yup tapi perlu juga di lakukan perbaikan human behind the sistem ...![]()
Indonesia has changed, and so must our attitude to it
Andrew Macintyre and Douglas Ramage
May 27, 2008
Our near neighbour is no longer a nation in turmoil, but a stable democracy.
AUSTRALIA needs to update the way it thinks about Indonesia. Almost 10 years to the day since the fall of Suharto, it is time to start thinking of Indonesia as a normal country, grappling with many of the same challenges as other large, stable, middle-income developing democracies such as India, Mexico or Brazil. And Canberra needs to adjust ways in which it engages with it.
To see Indonesia as a normal country is to take the suspicion, fear and mystery out of the picture. Too few Australians realise that Indonesia today is a stable, competitive democracy, playing a constructive role in world affairs. It is no longer in a state of profound flux and turmoil. Indonesians have embraced their democracy by voting in more free, fair and peaceful elections, and with higher voter turnout rates, than nearly any other democracy in the world in recent years. The internationally respected Freedom House survey now identifies Indonesia as the only fully free country in South-East Asia.
Indonesia's future is no longer a big mystery; Australians know roughly what it's going to look like over the next decade. In the absence of radical disjuncture — always a possibility, but not currently expected by observers inside or outside the country — Indonesia will be a middle-income developing country making slow headway in lifting living standards and consolidating democratic governance.
Seeing Indonesia as a normal country involves recognising just how much progress it has achieved since the fall of Suharto, while maintaining a clear-eyed realism about what's likely to be possible. For all the complaints from the Indonesian elite about the slow pace of reform under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and frequent calls from Australia and elsewhere for action by Jakarta on various international issues, it is very likely that this is "as good as it gets" for quite some time. This is a sobering prospect given the scale of poverty and other problems in Indonesia. Australia needs to be conscious of this as it seeks to refine its bilateral engagement.
Old insights matter too, and one of the most important for Australian policymakers to grasp is Indonesia's fundamental pluralism. Regimes, rulers and miscellaneous radicals have come and gone, but an underlying equilibrium continually reasserts itself as an openness to external ideas, people and products and an inescapable imperative to accept diversity. There have been some terrible and deadly exceptions, and even today the Government is mulling over a "ban" on the activities of the Ahmadiyah movement, a peaceable Islamic sect, although seen as blasphemous by some Indonesians, including a handful of officials. Despite this, pluralism still remains the bedrock fact of Indonesian society. Australians have lost sight of this in recent years, inclining instead to suspect Indonesians of militancy and zealotry. But in the new democratic world of "normal" Indonesia, its underlying social diversity will be the foundation of pluralistic politics.
What are the implications of the new Indonesia for Australia? At a general level, Australia will have to get used to a more outspoken and prickly Indonesia. Democracies, especially young democracies, tend to give off lots of noisy signals. Indonesia has long had to listen to the full spectrum of feelings and fears in Australian society; we're going to have to do the same. But with increasingly reliable survey data now available, Australia can also obtain an accurate sense of where the balance lies in Indonesian public opinion.
In an Australian Strategic Policy Institute report to be launched today by Foreign Minister Stephen Smith, we also outline a range of specific recommendations for Australia. The highest priority for Australia is that Indonesia's economic progress and consolidation as a viable democracy should not lag. Indonesia's economy has recovered from the Asian financial crisis and is making reasonable, if unspectacular, headway. But poverty is a much deeper problem than it should be. And while Indonesia has made remarkable progress in fashioning a workable framework of democratic government, there is a long way to go with bureaucratic and local-level political reform. These have to be serious concerns for Australia. Appropriately crafted Australian development assistance investments can provide real help to Indonesia on this front.
Australia also needs to think about the geographic focus of its development assistance investments in Indonesia, which puts particular emphasis on Eastern Indonesia. This engenders suspicion in minds and misses the great bulk of the country's poor.
There is an opportunity to recalibrate our military engagement too. Australia rightly seeks to encourage the continued disengagement of the military from domestic politics. This is important, as backsliding may undermine the fundamental priority of democratic consolidation. But in doing this, we shouldn't also be complaining about Indonesia beginning to modernise its meagre conventional defence capabilities. A stable, democratic Indonesia needs a professional and outwardly oriented defence force. Australia may be able to help through the development of civilian defence planning capabilities. Australia is fortunate that Indonesia is emerging as a normal country. But its future cannot be taken for granted. Its democracy needs to work better in delivering services and advancing prosperity.
Andrew MacIntyre is director of the Crawford School at the Australian National University. Douglas Ramage is country representative for the Asia Foundation in Jakarta.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinio...26.html?page=2
Mereka saja bisa menyadari, masa kita tidak.
Hal tersebut akan berjalan karena ada nya kompetisi. Dengan kita membuka ekonomi kita terhadap globalisasi dan kompetisi international, banyak sekali kreativitas dan kemajuan yang disebabkan karena setiap individual termotivasi untuk survive.
Dalam singkat perbaikan kita akan terjadi karena kejepit dan ingin maju.
Yoii boss emg modal utama harus dibenahin dulu kualitas Pendidikan dan Moral SDM-nya .
Udah gitu harus diberi penyuluhan agar mengurangi konsumsi yang gag penting dan duitnya diinvest ke pemerintah buat bangun infrastruktur.
Trus penyuluhan minat baca buku penting banget.
GNOTA kayanya harus digalakkin lagi nh.
drpd bikin pesta ampe ratusan juta mendingan duitnya bwt pendidikan !
"Jangan tanya 'kenapa Amerika boleh sedangkan Indonesia tidak boleh pada hal jelek seperti pornografi! Tapi tanyakanlah kenapa Amerika bisa tapi Indonesia ga bisa pada hal yang bagus !"
Presiden kita dan Indonesia kita
Sudah terlalu lama saya tidak menulis artikel dengan bahasa indonesia. Masa masa pemilu gini, memang paling semangat kalau ngomongin siapa yang menang, dan siapa yang kalah. Tapi, maaf saja, kalau ngomongin partai politik, saya males banget, never ever ever ever deh. Dalam banyak hal, partai partai politik kita nggak kenal sopan santun, bikin rakyat bingung (dan pengin muntah), dan ngabisin anggaran negara, bikin pemandangan kota jadi rusak karena bendera bendera, bikin jalanan macet karena pawai pawai, bikin kuping meledak karena knalpot dan otaknya sengaja dibocorin. Mari ngomongin pemimpin bangsa saja, ya..presiden. Ini sepenuhnya pendapat pribadi.
Sejak reformasi, saya rasa kepemimpinan SBY-Kalla, disetujui atau tidak (gak penting bagi saya) adalah yang paling baik, dibanding sebelum2nya. Pembangunan mulai terasa, ekonomi tumbuh, image kita mulai baik di mata dunia, pariwisata juga baik, pertanian baik, GDP paling tinggi sepanjang sejarah, cadangan devisa juga paling tinggi sepanjang masa. Di ASEAN, tetangga tetangga indonesia mulai "tunduk", dan mulai kembali memandang indonesia secara defacto adalah pemimpin di ASEAN.
Gak percaya? percayalah, saya sekarang ada di Cambodia, dan sudah keliling asia tenggara sejak setahun terakhir. Dalam sebuah percakapan dengan seorang petinggi di pemerintahan di salah satu negara ASEAN (saya gak akan bilang dari negara mana), dia bilang ..Malaysia and Singapore are (has been) competing each other to be the ASEAN leader, just like Indonesia under Soeharto, and you can see, ASEAN is really messy now. I personally miss Indonesia to lead this big organization. Big organization needs big leadership.
SBY-Kalla, dengan timnya, adalah kombinasi terbaik dari pilihan pilihan yang ada. Sri Mulyani, dinobatkan menjadi menteri keuangan terbaik di ASIA selama 2 kali, Marie Elka Pangestu, juga diberi penghargaan yang membanggakan, Menteri Luar Negeri kita, Hassan Wirayuda, sangat dihormati diluar negeri karena pendekatannya yang soft, yet brilliant. Lalu Menteri pertahanan kita yang begitu pandai membaca geopolitik, meski sering komplain. Banyak yang lain...
MAjalah TIME pernah memuat, betapa INDONESIA telah menjadi emerging power di Asia, namun ada hal hal kecil yang membuat Indonesia masih belum mampu memanfaatkan seluruh potensinya. Kata seorang wartawan al-jazeera, saat ini,indonesia hanya memakai kurang dari 35% kekuatan terpendamnya, dan dia bilang bahwa bisa jadi kita gak sadar, kita mempunyai remaining potentials sebanyak 65% yang belum digunakan.
Mertua saya yang orang SIngapura, berkali kali menyatakan bahwa kalau kita BETUL BETUL memakai potensi kita, maka besarlah kita. Saya kadang tidak mengerti, bagaimana orang orang SIngapura begitu mencintai bangsa Indonesia. Saya pernah melihat seorang singapura menangis ketika melihat berita berita kriminal di BUSER, melihat orang yang lain begitu bersemangatnya memberi semangat pada saya untuk tetap menatap ke depan.
Seorang Thailand, pernah berujar pada saya, thailand pernah berencana memperkuat tentaranya, karena ingin menyaingi kekuatan dan kemampuan tentara Indonesia..sebelum akhirnya menyerah, dan berkata "Do not challenge Mike Tyson if you are only a small boy".
Saya tidak habis pikir, bagaimana mungkin media media kita, TV TV kita, nggak pernah berhenti,nggak pernah capek, menyiarkan berita berita yang bahkan membuat orang indonesia sendiri meragukan bangsanya. Bagaimana mungkin, TV TV kita, mencemari otak otak kita sepanjang waktu, dan kita tidak berbuat apa apa.
http://www.myindonesia.co.nr/
"Indonesia is on the move, get on board." — Forbes Asia
Quote of the week:
"Indonesia is on the move, get on board." — Forbes Asia
"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds; and the pessimist fears this is true." James Branch Cabell
Vote for Komodo National Park:
http://www.new7wonders.com/nature/en/vote_on_nominees/
Yah sebuah tulisan yang bagus.
Realita dan persepsi kita harus ada allignment, kalau tidak kemauan kita tidak akan terpenuhi. Tentunya banyak orang yg melihat realita secara tidak keseluruhan, dimana mereka tidak bisa melihat "the bigger picture".
The bigger picture menunjukan bahwa negara kita benar2 sedang menuju prophecy 2030, yaitu pelestarian ekonomi, sosial, budaya, dan politik kita. Di saat 2030 tentunya akan terjadi awalnya kemakmuran, kejayaan, dan kemajuan yang agung di negri Indonesia.
Prophecy 2030 juga bukan hanya sekedar "myth", tetapi juga sebuah subyek yg dipelajari oleh orang barat, tentunya di Harvard administration of International Affairs.
Walaupun dunia sedang krisis dan juga dampak tersebut melanda Indonesia, kita akan melihat bahwa pada Quarter ketiga di tahun 2009, akan terjadi Production Boom <--> Buyers Market Shift. Disaat ini semua investor yg fokus ke industri makanan, manufacturing, dan industri kreativitas akan merasakan demand yg besar, sehingga akan terjadi kenaikan growth. Hal tersebut akan menjadi tangga yang pertama untuk kejayaan kita.
Di sejarah, negara maju seperti Jerman dan AS diawali oleh production boom ==> Manufacturing Capacity yang luar biasa. Hal seperti ini menyebabkan ekonomi kedua negara tersebut jadi besar karena sumber daya alam domestik dan foreign di utilasi semaksimal mungkin dan secara efficient, sehingga dapat menguntungkan rakyat semata. Proses tersebut dapat di breakdown menjadi detail, sampai bisa dibikin buku 500 halaman. Tetapi dalam general, hal yang sama akan terjadi di Indonesia.
Cuma Indonesia saja? Tidak... justru China, India sudah memulai duluan. ASEAN bergantungan kepada Indonesia, kita harus menjadi leader dan harus memulai hal tersebut biar negara2 ASEAN lain juga akan dapet head start.
Apa yang akan terjadi kepada negara lain? Di Asia akan menjadi seperti Eropa, dimana New Great Powers dilahirkan dan akan ada kompetisi yang besar. Bedanya, di Eropa kompetisi tersebut di ilustrasikan lewat perang besar seperti WWI dan WWII. Saya hanya harap negara2 Asia dapat melontarkan kompetisi tersebut kepada area bisnis, olah raga, teknologi, dan informasi - bukan militarisme.
Switzerland considers RI a priority country in Asia: Envoy
Veeramalla Anjaiah , The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Thu, 02/19/2009 2:13 PM | World
As the center of gravity of international politics and economics moves toward Asia, Switzerland, a tiny but prosperous European nation, has picked Indonesia as one of the priority countries in Asia to develop a new partnership with.
"We have selected seven priority countries from all over the world in the context of our development cooperation for the period of 2008-2012. Indonesia is one of them," Swiss Ambassador to Indonesia Bernardino Regazzoni told The Jakarta Post during a recent interview at his office in Jakarta.
The six other countries are Egypt, Ghana, Colombia, Peru, South Africa and Vietnam.
All seven countries, Ambassador Regazzoni said, were presently enjoying rapid economic growth and striving toward greater integration into the global economy, and they boasted predominant positions in their respective regions.
For instance, Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia, has recorded 6.1 percent economic growth in 2008 amid the global slowdown.
But the seven countries still face huge problems in terms of poverty alleviation and development.
"The priorities of our development cooperation with these seven countries lie in strengthening competitiveness and trade diversification of these countries, in mobilizing domestic and foreign investment, in improving basic infrastructure and promoting stable basic economic conditions," Regazzoni, the media-friendly ambassador, said.
The Swiss Federal Council has already provided 800 million Swiss francs to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) to implement this program.
There has been a flurry of activity in Switzerland's policies toward Indonesia, especially after Regazzoni took over as Swiss ambassador on July 25, 2006.
"The most important thing in our bilateral relations is growing new Swiss foreign investments in Indonesia. It's amazing," Regazzoni said.
"Our investments in Indonesia are much higher than our investments in India, South Korea, Malaysia and Vietnam."
In 2006, Swiss companies in-vested US$500 million in the country, with another $250 million in 2007. In the first six months of 2008, the realized Swiss investments reached $21 million.
In 2008, total foreign direct investment in Indonesia reached $14.87 billion, with Mauritius topping the list with an investment of $6.47 billion.
Most Swiss investments are new, with more than 75 Swiss companies already operating in Indonesia in different sectors, including banking, chemicals, food, pharmaceuticals and insurance.
"More and more companies are showing an interest in Indonesia. Our cumulative investments in Indonesia have already reached $3 billion. It will grow further in future," Regazzoni said.
Bilateral trade between the two countries has also improved significantly.
"Our bilateral trade has been witnessing double-digit growth. Last year, to our surprise, there was a significant increase in our imports of textiles, garments and footwear from Indonesia," Regazzoni said.
Data from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS) show bilateral trade valued at $668.90 million in 2007, a huge jump from the $339.38 million recorded in 2003.
It seems the year 2008 will remain a milestone in the history of the trade between the two countries. In the first 10 months of 2008, trade surged to $907.03 million, a 64.40 percent increase from $551.74 million during the same period in 2007.
Switzerland imports mainly textiles, garments, furniture, footwear, agricultural products like tea, coffee and cocoa from Indonesia, while it exports machinery, food, drugs, medical equipment and chemicals to Indonesia.
Unlike Indonesia, Switzerland lacks abundant natural resources, thus making it rely of high-quality human resources to produce top-notch machinery, drugs, foods, precision tools and strong brands.
"We also cooperate with Indonesia's National Agency for Export Development in the areas of fishing and seafood, agricultural products, handicrafts, educational toys, furniture and so on," Regazzoni said.
The ambassador added there was another aspect that would strengthen bilateral relations even further.
"Switzerland became a member of the Schengen area on Dec.12, 2008. Now we can issue Schengen visas valid for up to a three-month stay," he said
"The visa will also will be valid for entry into the territory of all other Schengen member states. Indonesian passport holders with a valid Schengen visa can enter Switzerland without an additional Swiss visa."
Both countries, Regazzoni said, were also mulling establishing a Joint Economic Commission to further strengthen the partnership.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2...sia-envoy.html
Hebat, semakin banyak negara yang menyadari![]()
Quote of the week:
"Indonesia is on the move, get on board." — Forbes Asia
"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds; and the pessimist fears this is true." James Branch Cabell
Vote for Komodo National Park:
http://www.new7wonders.com/nature/en/vote_on_nominees/
High notes of RI’s economic performance in 2008
Cyrillus Harinowo , JAKARTA | Mon, 02/23/2009 10:27 AM | Opinion
The report on the fourth quarter of Indonesia’s economic performance was issued recently. Not many positive comments were raised in the media, as if the report was just business as usual.
In the midst of so many bleak reports on the global economy, we may have to give a more appreciative response to what has been achieved by our economy.
The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported on Feb. 16, 2008 that the Indonesian economy posted a year-on-year growth of 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, the economic performance declined by 3.6 percent.
A famous analyst picked up the decline and forewarned that the Indonesian economy may suffer negative growth in the coming year.
To remind us all, the Indonesian economy always runs on a seasonal pattern in which the fourth quarter always suffers a quarter-on-quarter decline.
In 2005, the fourth quarter declined by 2.18 percent but there was 6.1 percent growth on a year-on-year basis. The following years, the fourth quarter also suffered a 1.90 percent decline on a quarter-on-quarter basis in 2006 and 2.10 percent in 2007 but produced positive growth of 6.1 percent in 2006 and 6.3 percent in 2007 on a year-on-year basis.
With the performance in the fourth quarter, the economy grew by 6.1 percent in 2008.
This could make Indonesia one of the few fast-growing countries in the world that so far seem to be insulated from the rest of the world.
The economy was primarily driven by two big sources, one is the sheer size of its population, and the other is the abundance of its natural resources.
These two drivers of growth sometimes work in concert. But at a time like this, the demographic power plays a more important role, while the resource-based economy plays a more supporting role.
With rising income, we saw more and more people join the middle class. In 2008, the GDP per capita surged to US$ 2,217 (Rp 26,360,000) from US$ 1,942 a year before.
The 14 percent increase in GDP per capita and the continued growth of the population made the GDP exceed half a trillion dollars for the first time in history.
This figure is far ahead of the prediction by Goldman Sachs, which indicated that in 2010, GDP may reach US$ 419 billion (“N-11: Not just an acronym”). Apparently, Indonesia was able to manage a GDP that is 25 percent higher in 2008 than the 2010 forecast.
With such income, 23 million people, or 10 percent of the population, earned around US$ 7,000 per capita. This is almost the same size as the entire Malaysian population with roughly the same income per capita. Along these lines, 69 million Indonesians, or 30 percent of the population, earned around US$ 4,000 per capita.
This is larger than the entire population of Thailand with a higher income per capita. Therefore once again this gave formidable power for the economy to grow.
With such a performance, it is no longer a surprise that the Starbucks and Coffee Bean counters in Indonesia keep growing rapidly at the time when our Australian neighbor just closed 61 out of a total of 84 Starbucks stores.
Similarly, it is no surprise that the ice-cream consumption in Sumatra increased by almost 100 percent in 2008 alone. The list of such products continues to grow from year to year.
With the strength of its demographic, the economy may continue to grow in 2009 through the rise of its consumption expenditure.
In 2008, the growth of the consumption expenditure of the GDP was 5.3 percent, while the share of this expenditure was 61 percent of the economy.
Early indications show that the first two months of 2009 continue to post positive consumption growth.
With the expected increase of bumper crops from the rice paddies in the first quarter, we are hoping that the economy will still be in positive territory in the first quarter of 2009. Once this can be achieved, it will enhance consumer confidence for the rest of the year.
The 2008 economic performance was also exceptional for capital formation.
Indonesia enjoyed a high investment ratio during the years of its rapid development, before the Asian crisis in 1997.
In those years, the investment ratio usually hovered above 30 percent. But the ratio dropped significantly after the crisis and went below 20 percent.
Very slowly the investment ratio has picked up and accelerated in the past few years. In 2008, the investment ratio posted a respectable level of 27.7 percent, getting closer to the pre-crisis level.
The high rate of investment was primarily driven by high expectations at the time of the economic boom.
At the same time, the banking system in 2008 was also very conducive in fuelling the growth of investment.
That may not be the case in 2009. The business community will feel the pinch of the credit crunch in the coming months, even though the central bank has indicated a loosening of its monetary policy.
Therefore economic stimulation from other sources is critical in compensating for private investment.
While it may not have been intended, the government’s coffers seemed to be full at the beginning of 2009. From my records, Bank Indonesia’s data showed a total of more than Rp 170 trillion in government reserves.
That amount was more than double its reserves in the previous year. Therefore, the government has the ability to frontload the economic pump-priming by promoting infrastructure developments.
The recently reopened access bridge to Cakung near Tanjung Priok Port showed the capacity of the government to jump-start development by taking over the responsibility to rebuild the bridge from the Jakarta provincial government.
In West Kalimantan, the Pontianak-Tayan highway, one stretch of the Trans-Kalimantan Highway, is in the midst of construction preparation.
Once completed, the highway will help cut the traffic time to the hinterland, including to Entikong on the border with Malaysia.
The economic benefits will be promptly enjoyed by the population as well as the business community. Such an effort has long been delayed, and therefore once completed, it will be praised by the entire population.
The outlook for 2009 may not be as good as 2008. However, it is my belief that this year will not totally disappoint us.
The writer is an economist.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2...ance-2008.html
"The outlook for 2009 may not be as good as 2008. However, it is my belief that this year will not totally disappoint us."
Sesuai postnya doos juga :0
Quote of the week:
"Indonesia is on the move, get on board." — Forbes Asia
"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds; and the pessimist fears this is true." James Branch Cabell
Vote for Komodo National Park:
http://www.new7wonders.com/nature/en/vote_on_nominees/
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